2 Minute Offense

1. Iran updates.

• Early last week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened genocide, the complete and total eradication of the Iranian people (“A whole civilzation will die tonight, never to be brought back again” see Letters #1) if Iran did not surrender by Tuesday. These words, which implicitly included the threat of nuclear holocaust (how else could a civilization be instantly erased?), can’t be unsaid, and have changed the terrain of both the Iran War, and the second Trump administration. The words by themselves constitute a war crime under the Geneva Convention.

• Iran did not surrender. Instead Trump backed down, agreed to a two-week cease fire and Trump expressed loose agreement with Iran’s 10 point demands (which include Iran’s right to nuclear weapons and missiles, removal of all economic sanctions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz). (See Letters #2.)

History sometimes coins a phrase based on a military encounter, such as the Pyrrhic victory. Luckily, history has a great one ready for President Trump’s attack and what he did afterwards: I-ran.

• Within a day Israeli attacks into Lebanaon undercut the intent of the agreement (see Letters #3). Part of the reason may be personal to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose long-postponed corruption trial is set to start (see Letters #4), but Israel being at war helps him to avoid or at least delay that reckoning.

• By Sunday US-Iran negotiations had broken down, and Trump is now threatening to blockade the Straits of Hormuz, too (see Letters #5) because if Iran is blockading shipping why can’t he? If the past month is any guide, before the markets open on Monday a “breakthrough” will be announced. Don’t believe it. Iran already faced the ultimate threat earlier last week and lived to tell about it, and even declared victory; it is unlikely additional threats will shake their resolve.

On the threatened blockade by the USA, what will happen if the US actually seizes a tanker of oil going to China or Japan? Both of those countries hold large amounts of US bond debts, and can engage in a sell-off that would remind investors of the fun times of 1929, 1987, 2000, or 2008 — the worst market crashes in history (and surely it is a coincidence that there was a Republican President each of those times the markets crashed).

2. Legal updates.

• A federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice (DOJ)’s demand for Massachusetts voter rolls (see Letters #6). Feds are now 0 for 5 on these demands.

• The DOJ declares Presidential Records Act unconstitutional (see Letters #7). An interesting point was raised (see Letters #8) that the growth of technology that has made information more readily and quickly available throughout the history of the USA has also made politicians increasingly accountable — which may explain why this DOJ is evidently so keen to avoid accountability pre-emptively.

• CA sherriff who seized election ballots was ordered by the CA Supreme Court to pause ballot investigation and preserve the ballots (see Letters #9).

• The DOJ is now going after Cassidy Hutchinson, the young woman who was a staff member of the first Trump administration and became a central figure in the 2022 Congressional hearings about Trump’s attempt to overthrow the 2020 election via the uprising on January 6, 2021 (see Letters #10). Attempted revenge prosecutions by this DOJ are many, but this one may have another angle: stifle in advance any current staff members of the present Trump administration before they get any ideas about cooperating, if and when the law comes calling for this Trump admnistration.

3. Pushback.

• The social media group Alt Nat’l Park ran a surprising powerful social media campaign to try to stop the US Forest Service from being gutted. Instead of focusing on politicians, they focused on companies whose business benefitted from the US having well-kept wilderness areas: companies that engage in outdoors apparel, sporting equipment, vacation resorts, etc. You can take action by following the link below. Already over 80 companies contacted have publicly supported this campaign, and have vowed to use their efforts to push public officials to support the environment.

  https://saveusfs.org/

• In Montana, an ongoing effort to work around the Citizens United ruling of 2010 (that allows companies to make unlimited financials donations to political groups) attempts to amend the state constitution to say that corporations that are chartered by the state (which they all must be) are simply not allowed to engage in that kind of behavior. This idea is wildly popular in MT and has withstood initial legal challenges (see Letters #10).

• A federal judge ordered federal officials to hand over ‘some’ evidence on Renee Goode’s murder allegedly by an ICE agent to the state of Minnesota (see Letters #11).

4. Election updates.

• Chris Taylor wins the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat election by 20 points; this in a state Trump won in 2024 by a tiny margin (see Letters #12).

• The special election in a deep-red district of Georgia to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene ended with the Republican winning by 14 points, a far cry from the 37 point win for Trump in 2024 in that district (see Letters #13).

• Per a G. Elliot Morris report (see link below), polls now show that 135 Republican-held seats in the Senate and House of Representatives are underwater for President Trump (meaning he is more disapproved of than approved of in these areas). There are 270 Republicans in the House and Senate combined.

Strength In Numbers

New polling: Trump is underwater in 135 GOP House and Senate seats

On Tuesday morning, April 7, 2026, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “A whole civilization will die tonight.” Trump gave Iran until 8 p.m. Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the “complete demolition” of every bridge and power plant in the country. On Easter morning, he posted “Open the F---in’ Strait, you crazy b-----ds, or you’ll be living in Hell! Praise be to Allah.” At publication, it is still unclear what form the threatened use of force would take…

Read more

5 days ago · 206 likes · 8 comments · G. Elliott Morris

5. Epstein files updates.

• First Lady Melania Trump made an unexpected statement to press averring she had no connection to Jeffrey Epstein. Many wonder why she did this? It seems not to have written by her, judging by her mis-read a couple of words (not a big surprise as she is an English-second-language person). Someone thought she needed protection in advance from something.

• The DOJ asserts that former head Pam Bondi won’t testify under oath before Congress on April 14th; she can be forced if Republicans choose to do so; at least one, Nancy Mace (R-SC), has said she would do that (see Letters #14).

Pithy Wargaming Tip: The Worst ‘Own Goals’ in Military History

A friend & reader asked whether autocratic personalities are more prone to the “sunk cost fallacy” in which one continues an unsuccessful campaign not because you think you are about to win, but because you’ve already invested so much that you are afraid to admit defeat and that you squandered your resources and assets. My view is that the autocratic personality is typically so confident in themselves that an initial setback is viewed mostly with disbelief, since the autocrat always knows best. If there was a failure, it was likely a lack of sufficient will to pursue the awaiting victory — in other words underlings let down the dictator, or perhaps someone else sabotaged the situation. The end result is similar — the dictator does not take responsibility for his failure. (Editorial note: one tries to be careful with pronouns, and “the dictator” would have been a neutral option in the prior sentence; but I couldn’t think of a modern female dictactor who achieved power on her own, thus the use of “his failure.”)

This exchange made me look up the worst disasters in military history. One source (see Letters #15) lists a top 10 as follows. In every case, the loser badly underestimated the victor, often because the victor employed tactics or technology that the loser did not fully understand or appreciate.

1. The Romans at the Battle of Cannae 216, B.C. in which a Roman force that was twice as large nevertheless lost to Hannibal.

2. Crassus at the Battle of Carrhae, 53 B.C. Roman legions were crushed by Parthian horse-archers.

3. The Romans at the Teutoburg Forest, 9 A.D. After the shocking defeat, Emperor Augustus famously cried aloud, “Quintilius Varus, give me back my legions!”

4. The French at the Battle of Agincourt, 1415 A.D., in which French Knights learn the efficacy (both accuracy and fire rate) of the English longbow, leading to staggering French losses.

5. The Austrians at the Battle of Karánsebes, 1788 A.D. During the Austro-Turkish War, the Austrian army under Emperor Joseph II defeated itself when some drunken Hussars mistakenly shot some other Austrian troops (who only wanted some of their schnapps); then someone shouted “Turks!” and a general melee causing 1,000 casualties ensued.

6. Napoleon’s Invasion of Russia, 1812 A.D., in which “General Winter” is introduced to modern military parlance, leading to Napoleon’s forces suffering an estimated two-thirds casualties over the campaign.

7. The Charge of the Light Brigade, 1854, A.D. British light cavalry forget the lesson of Agincourt, and attempt to charge into artillery.

8. Custer at the Battle of the Little Bighorn, 1876, A.D. General Custer’s impatience leads to disaster.

9. Hitler’s Invasion of the Soviet Union, 1941 A.D. Nazi Germany ignored the lesson of World War I: don’t start get involved in a two-front in a war when you haven’t won the first front.

10. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, 1941 A.D. Most wargames show American industrial capability to be anywhere from 3 to 10 times that of Japan. What could go wrong attacking that sleeping giant?

Reconnaissance Mission

This week is an attempt to give short outtakes from longer essays or interviews from the last two weeks that were interesting.

1. Fascinating interview of Professor Vanessa Williamson by Professor Heather Cox Richardson to discuss the history of tax policy in the US. Per Williamson, initial tax theories at the founding of the country were not just about how to raise funds, but also a way to bind citizens to the fledgling state, because the founders had seen the dangers of ultra-wealthy individuals who were not beholden to the state or the good of the country.

2. G. Elliot Morris penned an article last week in which he argued that the policial slice that is moderate or centrist in American is both smaller and less important than most people think.

Like my original survey, Blue Rose asked Americans to describe what their ideal political party would “argue for or believe in.” Then it placed each respondent into one of five buckets based on their responses: Left, Right, Affordability, Anti-System, and Moderate.

Here is the topline:

• Left: 30%

• Right: 25%

• Affordability: 21%

• Anti-System: 17%

• Moderate: 7%

Below is the link to his article. While I’m sympathetic to his thesis, it seems to me that Morris may have set aside the most important facet of the above data set, namely that 38% of Americans (the 21% who say life in America isn’t affordable plus the 17% who distrust American institutions) are cititing feeling let down by the system we live in is their strongest political affiliation. Taken together that is the strongest bloc of voters, and it appears to be independent of any social, cultural, or political affiliation.

Strength In Numbers

Only 8% of "moderates" actually want moderation

When you ask voters to describe what kind of political party they want, in their own words, only 8% of self-identified “moderates” actually call for an ideologically moderate political party. Most instead want a party focused on affordability, political reform, or general left-leaning priorities — particularly economic ones…

Read more

6 days ago · 62 likes · 5 comments · G. Elliott Morris

Relatedly, in another article, Morris used a qualitative approach, eliciting some interesting responses.

One participant in a Republican-leaning focus group, a woman in her mid-50s, put it simply: "We shouldn't have to work so hard to survive." This is the type of resolution you can’t get with quantitative polling data.

and

As one woman put it: “I would want somebody that’s for us and understands what it’s like to struggle.”

Strength In Numbers

Deep dive episode: Voters say they want "somebody that's for us"

In this first special deep dive episode of the Strength in Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Joy Wilke, senior director of polling at BlueLabs, to discuss a set of focus groups she conducted in Michigan among independent, politically disengaged Americans — the exact kind of affordability voters who swung toward Trump in 2024, and who Elliott has been writing about over the last year. BlueLabs’ focus groups show that many voters are economically desperate, distrust both parties, and have a deep hunger for leaders who actually get them…

Listen now

6 days ago · 126 likes · 11 comments · G. Elliott Morris

3. Next is a compelling outtake from a Chris Armitage article.

Most Americans are already on this side of the argument when you say “people are dying because healthcare is for profit” or “people are working full time and sleeping outside” or even “people can't afford to have families on what they're being paid.” Stated clearly, these are moral emergencies, rather than policy disputes, and there is no room for half measures when the problems are this serious. Half measures are a moral failing, and morals are the landscape of identity. Respect for human life, the suffering of others, fairness, wanting to protect the innocent from harm, these are the moral terms that shape people's identity and as a result their behavior; those conversations can actually inspire the politically lost and dejected to act and make change that lasts. The path from the present moment to change is found by evangelizing justice. Door to door if need be because otherwise we get no future at all.

The Existentialist Republic

It’s 2026. Socialism Won’t Save Us.

If you’re not already subscribed to Glass Empires by Wendy Lawrence, click this sentence and check her work out. It aligns well with The Existentialist Republic and our mission…

Read more

7 days ago · 245 likes · 80 comments · Christopher Armitage

4. Jon Stewart hosted Heather Cox Richardson for an entertaining conversation; one outtake from Richardson (at about the 1:09 mark):

[As a country] we have let a disease run rampant for a long time, and it’s coming very close to killing us. You can’t just say, “Okay, okay, I really am now going to clean out the wound.” At this point, we have to rethink the way democracy interfaces with a global economy, global world, in which everyone has instantaneous ability to communicate with one another, and to support each other — or tear each other down.

5. Historian Timothy Snyder on Iran:

With this settlement the US is worse off in every way than it was before the war; Iran is strengthened by the huge new tolls in the Straits of Hormuz, paid by the whole world. I will lay out the strategic defeat but I want to make clear that it is a symptom of the basic problem of injustice and inequality.

Consider — where are those new tolls going? To Iran’s murderous regime. Is it too much to wonder, though, whether a portion reaches the pockets of US negotiators or other Americans? … One oligarch certainly enriched by this nonsense war was Putin, for whom this was an economic bonanza.… Strategically this is also a bonanza for Putin. His main ally in the Near East defeats the US with his help — and while the US helps him help Iran against the US! And meanwhile the US slanders Ukraine, which was actually helping the US. Meanwhile the American vice-president is in Budapest to back up Orbán, Putin’s main ally in Europe, and repeating Russian slanders about Ukraine….

Trump does not care about the state. He cares about himself and is moved by conversations among a few people. The result is always that the wealthy few and the dictatorial few win and America loses and most people in America and elsewhere lose. Indeed, losing for others is Trump’s superpower. His magic is that his people stick to him like gamblers, thinking that somehow each loss signals the next win. But the strategic losses are only the beginning. There are also moral, economic, political losses. The US cannot keep losing everything indefinitely.

The war, horrible as it is in itself, signals the basic problem: abuse of power enabled by wealth inequality and media monopolies. Trump will fall and these issues can be addressed. But only if we see how deep is the rot and how pressing is the need.

Snyder also wrote an article called the “Next Coup Attempt,” in which he relates the dictator’s usual logic, which is to use an external war as an excuse to impose internal control on one’s own population. Snyder specifically calls out the threat of MAGA performing a fake terrorist strikes inside the USA and then blaming it on others (Iran, Democrats, etc.) The comparison to what has happened in Hungary over the last weeks is unmistakable, and as we get closer to the fall mid-terms, these ideas will surely recirculate.

Thinking about...

The Next Coup Attempt

We are seven months away from the most consequential midterm election in the history of the United States. Meanwhile, we are fighting a war. These are the structural conditions for a coup attempt in which a president tries to nullify elections and take permanent power as a dictator. If we see this, we can stop it, overcome the movement that brought us t…

Read more

8 days ago · 8344 likes · 193 comments · Timothy Snyder

6. Lastly are two examples of the world moving on without US. First is other countries cutting deals with Iran but not involving the USA.

The second is from a speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Taking Action

This week’s sections that follow (see below) are reminders that the most powerful action is making a new kind of “We” in whatever way makes sense. Collective and unique individualism when brought together in harmony exceeds the sum of its parts in ways that are hard to explain or quantify; it is often best expressed through artistic and creative endeavors. Any form of making is the most vital human activity, whether that is making food or furniture, making a connection with someone else, or making a poem. Any making can bring people together. The more we ourselves create, the more difficult it is to keep us divided, or distracted, or downtrodden. Let this be a time for making a new “We.”

Musing

There are some powerful videos on BlueSky including enormous crowds of people chanting and singing for freedom in Budapest, Hungary. But all have blocked reposting on external sites, likely because that is what life under a dictatorship, as Hungary has been for the last 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s rule, needs to be for the poster’s safety. Below is a screen shot from one of them, showing a huge crowd at night in Budapest rallying for freedom, in favor of opposition candidate Péter Magyar, and against dictator-incumbent Viktor Orbán.

The US MAGA movement has explicity looked to Orbán’s tactics and themes in trying to gain and hold onto power. Orbán has reshaped Hungary’s government and institutions into instruments of him and his party, working against the EU, doing Russia’s will, and using the state’s power to suppress dissent (see Letters #16). Orbán has allegedly imported a crack Russian disinformation team to help his faltering campaign, and there have been staged events supposed to accuse the opposition of violence (most recently, a pipe bomb was “discovered”). But there’s one thing modern dictators need, and that is to win an election, regardless of whether it is a sham or corrupt; they still need to win it to have the veneer of legitimacy.

Opposition leader Magyar (whose last name literally means “Hungarian”) is not a political liberal or progressive, but is considered a right-of-center politician. Some have called him a younger version of Orbán. As an elected member of the European Parliament, he enjoys immunity from prosecution in Hungary, which is thought to be the reason he’s not in jail.

Today is voting day in Hungary, and soon we’ll find out if Hungary is a proving ground not just for modern dictatorships, but also for peaceful, popular opposition that can topple a dictator. Experts have estimated that the opposition needs to get at least 55% of the vote (and more is better) in order to have any chance of winning electorally against the many dirty tricks being used. Recent polls have shown Magyar ahead by 10 to 20 points. The vote today in Hungary will be very consequential for the whole world, and particularly the USA. The MAGA movement has pitched itself as following an inevitable global trend from Russia to Hungary to America. A reversal in Hungary would be a severe blow to that narrative.

Initial reports Sunday indicate it is a record voter turnout for Hungary (over 77%).

Late-breaking: Orbán has conceded! (See Letters #17.) The vote count is ongoing but the opposition party is currently ahead in 95 of 106 regions. The fallout will be fascinating.

Frodo’s Journey: April 12, Shire Reckoning 1419

Last week while the heroes celebrated, back in Gondor at the Houses of Healing, Faramir and Éowyn discover their love for one another as they both recover from their battles with Black Riders, as this short clip (<2 minutes) embodies in both song and art.

Featured Scifi Episode & Battle Hymn of the Week Two-fer

Scifi musicals are a genre pair that haven’t mixed all that often, or all that well. Here are two that pass muster and seem like a good fit together. Both highlight the power of connection that music is uniquely good at.

First up is “What It Sounds Like” from the movie K-Pop Demon Hunters. The song “Golden” also from the same movie won a grammy, and it’s probably a better song, but this one (see 5 minute clip below; spoiler alert: this gives away the plot resolution) is the crux of the story and has the central line of the entire movie, and which may chart a way forward for us today:

We broke into a million pieces, and we can't go back
But now we're seeing all the beauty in the broken glass

A song of similar power is “War Are One” from Star Trek: Strange New Worlds “Subspace Rhapsody” (season 2, episode 9). The Enterprise needs to sing their way out of a wacky subspace loop, and this is the power balled that gets them over the top to break the cycle (with the help of some unwilling-but-rapping Klingons).

Letters From the Front

1. Trump’s threat to annihilate Iran.

https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr-ryan/our-work/carr-ryan-commentary/whole-civilization-will-die-tonight-day-american

2. The April 8 cease fire already has its own wikipedia page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire

3. Israel continues attacks into Lebanon.

https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/israels-hezbollah-lebanon-war-explained/

4. Netanyahu’s corruption trial.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-requests-delay-his-corruption-trial-testimony-2026-04-10/

5. Negotiations between Iran and USA break down.

https://www.npr.org/2026/04/12/nx-s1-5782538/u-s-iran-peace-talks-islamabad-collapse

6. Judge rejects DOJ demand for Massachusetts voter rolls.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-doj-now-0-for-5-on-voter-roll-cases-as-court-rejects-massachusetts-lawsuit/

7. Joyce Vance writes about the importance of the Presidential Records Act.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

Killing History

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right…

Read more

4 days ago · 1138 likes · 88 comments · Joyce Vance

8. History professors Joanne Freeman and Heather Cox Richardson talked about the Presidential Records Act and the intersection of new technology:

9. Sherriff ordered to pause investigation and preserve the ballots.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/california-supreme-court-orders-gop-sheriff-to-pause-election-probe-and-preserve-seized-ballots

10. Montana’s attempt to work around Citzens United.

The Dworkin Report

Army Secretary Tells Hegseth No, Montana Clears Path To Kill Citizens United, and a Small Town Beats Trump's Big Tech Allies At The Ballot Box

A town of 12,000 people just beat Trump’s Big Tech billionaire allies at the ballot box and corporate media barely covered it. Make sure people see what actually happened—smash the ❤️ like button and…

Read more

2 days ago · 5550 likes · 332 comments · Scott Dworkin

11. Some evidence in Renee Good’s murder must be turned over by May 1st.

https://www.northernnewsnow.com/2026/04/10/federal-judge-orders-us-government-release-evidence-tied-killing-renee-good/

12. WI State Supreme Court election.

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/04/09/what-chris-taylors-big-supreme-court-win-means-for-wisconsin/

13. Georgia special election

https://abcnews.com/Politics/georgia-runoff-election-replace-marjorie-taylor-greene-2/story?id=131766302

14. Nancy Mace on whether Pam Bondi must testitfy to Congress under oath about the Epstein files.

https://www.wric.com/hill-politics/mace-calls-for-bondi-to-testify-in-epstein-files-probe-or-be-held-in-contempt/

15. Worst disasters in military history.

https://www.historyhit.com/military-mistakes-in-history/

16. Anne Applebaum on Hungary’s election.

Open Letters, from Anne Applebaum

The Strangest Week

On Wednesday morning, a colleague asked if I thought that the American-Iranian ceasefire, which had been declared overnight, would hold. I shrugged. How can I know? How can anyone know? All of the decisions about this war are being taken, on the one hand, by an American president who has…

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3 days ago · 870 likes · 16 comments

17. Orbán concedes!

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/hungarian-prime-minister-viktor-orban-concedes-defeat-after-painful-election-result-ending-16-years-in-power

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2 Minute Offense

1. Reflections on the nature and reality of conflict.

• Pope Leo XIV speaks up for peace, and rejects that notion that God justifies war in his first Palm Sunday mass as pontiff (see Letters #1, 1 minute video) . Pope Leo said more the same on Good Friday (see below). At the same time, the Catholic military chaplain of US armed forces, Archbishop Broglio (“a reliable ally of the political right on questions of religious liberty and military culture,” see Letters #2), declared that the attack on Iran did not meet the ‘just war’ criteria and cautioned Catholic US troops about their decisions (approximately 1.8 million US service women and men are Catholic).

• The Boss, Bruce Springsteen, introduces (via 3 minute video, below) his new ‘Land of Hope and Dreams’ tour talking about our country’s challenges, and asking that fundamental question: “War, what is it good for?”

• Iran war approval falls to 34% (from an initial 41%, which was historically low to start with) per CNN (see Letters #3). Two US aircraft were shot down; all pilots are believed to be rescued.

• Here is some data from https://iran.liveuamap.com/ (which is constantly updated so the below data isn’t there now.) As March 31st, since start of Iranian War, the (tiny) United Arab Emirates had intercepted 433 ballistic millies, 19 cruise missiles, and 1,977 drones.

• Iran is reportedly charging up to $2M per shipping tanker for allowing safe passage through the Straits of Hormuz (see Letters #4).

• Meanwhile, US lifts sanctions on Venezuelan oil (see Letters #5) because … why? Is Venezuela now a democracy? Allowing free and fair elections? No. It is because the oil is needed to stabilize financial markets as a result of the global economic disruption caused by Iranian war.

• Trump actions leave NATO in disarray. Several NATO allies (Spain, France, Italy, Austria, Germany, see Letters #6) have engaged in a variety of actions including denying the USA use of air space and/or air bases, as well as the following:

2. D.C. updates

• President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR): “Turns out covering up for pedophiles isn’t a winning strategy. See you at Nuremberg 2.0.” Some speculated this would allow Bondi to avoid the April 14th Congressional subpeona under oath, but Democrat Maxwell Frost (D-FL) affirmed she is still required to appear: “Pam Bondi still has to testify, under oath, in front of the Oversight Committee regarding the Epstein Files. This does not get her out of that bipartisan, lawful subpoena.”
  Why was she fired? In a live chat (see Letters #7), Heather Cox Richardson opined: (1) because Bondi is a woman; (2) because Bondi botched the hiding of the Epstein Files; (3) because DOJ files turned over to Congress (for the purpose of smearing Jack Smith) inadvertently revealed (per Rep. Jamie Raskin’s (D-MD) finding) that Trump had illegally kept documents for his business interests.

• Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth purged army leadership (see Letters #8). Army Chief of Staff Randy George fired reportedly for not blocking the promotion of 2 Black and 2 women. Hegseth also fired Gen. William Green Jr., the chief of Army chaplains who happens to be Black (Archbishop’s Broglio’s remarks noted above came to light after this firing). Also fired was Gen. David Hodne, who had been appointed by Gen. George. There’s no good way to look at this. Sacking military leadership in the middle of a war is a signal that screams “We’re losing!” and possibly “We need military leaders who won’t question the legality of our orders.”

• Federal judge rules that Donald Trump cannot cite ‘presidential duties’ to be immune from civil responsibility for January 6, 2021 actions; his lawyers can attempt that defense in trial, but it will be up to the jury (see Letters #9).

• Supreme Court hears “birthright” challenge, with skepticism (see Letters #10).

• New White House ballroom construction project blocked by a judge (appointed by Republican President George W. Bush) saying, “The President of the United States is the steward of the White House for future generations of First Families. He is not, however, the owner!” (See Letters #11).

• Federal funding removal for PBS & NPR blocked by a judge (kinda late, not sure it matters other than to confirm the illegality of the action in the first place, see Letters #12).

• Trump issues executive orders against mail-in voting (see Letters #13).

  

• Trump issues another executive order creating national federal voting database; Democrats immediately sue (see Letters #14).

• Trump signs order to pay all DHS employees (see Letters #15), bypassing Congress. (Is that legal? If yes, why wait months to do it?)

• Trump proposed $1.5 Trillion budget increases military spending by over 40%. Everything else is to be cut by 10% or more, especially social services. Congress is not likely to agree (see Letters #16).

3. Around the country

• Per reported Katie Phang, Nexstar/Tegna sued by CA to block; CA looking at Paramount/Warner Bros. as well (see Letters #17).

• Alex Pretti death came”after an insane Stephen Miller order” (see Letters #18). That this was leaked is indicative that the top MAGA leadership is not in full control.

• Alex Jones said that Trump should be moved offstage.

  

• Florida’s version of SAVE Act draws immediate lawsuits (see Letters #19).

• US forest service to be dismantled; research will be destroyed (see Letters #20).

• A Tennessee librarian refused to yield to demands to move childen’s book that cover LGBTQ+ topics out of the children’s section. She was cheered by meeting attendees, and then fired by the board (see Letters #21).

• Trump tries to regulate college sports by executive order (see Letters #22). Donald Trump has always had keen ability to perceive others’ frustration, pain, and irritaton — and then he uses these insights to enrich and aggrandize himself. Presumably this is more of the same.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Guadalcanal and Victory Disease

World War II histories talk about how pivotal the Japanese-Allied conflict over Guadalcanal was. Certainly it was a very hard-fought campaign at all levels: in the skies, on the seas, and on the ground. Both sides took tough losses, and made hard gains. Eventually after a 6-month struggle, the Japanese forces were beaten, withdrew, and the Allies prevailed. Much is made about how Guadalcanal would have provided Japan gateway bases to attack Australian and New Zealand, or at least to sever their connection to the American forces in the eastern Pacific.

I remember my college history professor — who as a youth was a Greek national living under Japanese occupation of Shanghai during the war — describing Guadalcanal as a campaign that never side intended. He called it a meeting engagement, meaning it was unplanned manouevers by both sides that happened to collide around Guadancanal, rather than either side targeting Guadalcanal specifically.

As a World War II gamer, I have suffered from the “victory disease” that some say Japan suffered from in World War II. You get this illness when your initial war plans all succeed even better than you dreamed they would. You can’t help it — it goes to your head. You start thinking, “Great, I’ve got these troops, still unblemished, what else can I attack and take control of?” Why should the next round of campaigns be any different than the first roll-overs? Keep it going!

Needless to say, a case of victory disease rarely ends well for those who suffer from it.

Faithful readers may remember this space referring to another ‘meeting encounter’ between the Trump regime and Harvard almost a year ago (see Synthesizing Sense issue #20). The attack on Iran in some respects falls under this category. There was almost certainly no intention of the part of the Trump administration to get involved in a long war. Part of the problem, also often found in wargames (though having a shared book of game rules limits this more than real life), is that one player’s idea of ‘winning’ may not match the opponent’s idea of ‘losing.’ In the case of Iran, if one side defines winning as killing leaders and blowing up stuff, but the country of 93 million people doesn’t think that those losses have actually defeated them, what happens next? The two basic options are to escalate the conflict, or to exit the battlefield.

Reconnaissance Mission

Really appreciated an article in the New York Times (see Letters #23, which is a gift article) entitled “Is It 1914 in America?” by Yonatan Touval. The article highlights the fundamental mistake that the Trump administration appears to have applied to the attack on Iran, namely, that war is never primarly about technical capabilities or even precision information.

Four weeks into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, one conclusion is already difficult to avoid. Our leaders preside over an extraordinary machinery of destruction, but they remain strikingly obtuse about human beings — about their pride, shame, convictions and historical memory.

War is about how people think and feel about the war.

[War] is shaped by grievance, sacred narrative, the memory of past humiliations and the desire for revenge. Those are not atmospheric complications added to an otherwise technical enterprise. They are what the war is about.

If we don’t have an imagination that is sufficiently expansive to see the war from the other side’s perspective, then the aggressor risks incomprehension at what the opponent is willing to do and endure, as Napoleon was unable to fathom that Russians would burn their own cities rather than submit. Touval closes:

The more technologically sophisticated war becomes, the more dangerous it is to place it in the hands of people untrained in irony, contingency and the darker constants of human nature. Such leaders will speak fluently of capabilities, timelines and kill chains. They will have no language for resentment, dishonor, loyalty or grief — and they will discover, too late, that wars are made of these as much as of steel and fire. That is the illiteracy of this war. The algebra of the war makers will have been flawless. But what they cannot read, they will not have reckoned with.

Taking Action

Chris Armitage offered a detailed, simple step-by-simple step 30-day action play to create your own political influence campaign (see Letters #24). It’s easy to do. In brief:

1. Contact several local officials regarding your issue (one per day over consecutive days) via website feedback, taking a screen shot of your submission.

2. Call those same officials and leave messages along the same lines over a few days.

3. Create and make sociall media posts about the issue naming those same officials and demanding action; screenshot your work again.

4. Send personal emails to those same officials. Request a formal, written response.

5. Send physical letters to those same officials, again requesting a written response.

6. Request a meeting with each official to discuss the issue. (Armitage: “You are a constituent asking an elected official to do their job. Most people never ask. The ones who do get remembered.”)

7. Repeat whichever method of the above seemed to get the most traction.

Armitage concludes:

None of this requires treating political engagement like a second job. The point is not any single action. The point is that you keep showing up, you document everything, and you make the cost of ignoring you higher than the cost of responding to you.

Musing

Who wants to buy power? Here’s a simple answer (from Robert Reich colum, see Letters #25) regarding election-related spending sorted by family in 2026. The fundamental problem is that this is legal. It is clearly bad for democracy. The view here is that we need a Constitutional Amendment creating political spending limits (as were in place before the ‘Citizens United’ ruling in 2010) in order to stop the free-speech rights of non-millionaires from effectively being suppressed and overwhelmed by the ultra-rich.

Frodo’s Journey: April 5, Shire Reckoning 1419

“Long live the Halflings! Praise them with great praise!” Below is a short choral rendition of the celebration of the Field of Cormallen, as the downfall of Sauron is celebrated by the now-rescued Frodo and Sam, who are reunited with their friends.

Featured Scifi Episode Roman-Biblical Epic

Was pleasantly surprised by my first-ever watch of “The Robe,” a 1953 Roman-Biblical cast-of-thousands epic movie, to discover it was actually good. The final scene in which Diana (Jean Simmons) refutes the crazed Roman Emperor Caligula struck home (start at the 6:45 mark of the clip below):

[Diana] I have no wish to live another hour in an empire ruled by you. You dare to call yourself a Caesar. Once the Caesars of Rome were noble, but in you noble blood has turned to poison. You corrupt Rome with spite and malice.”

[Emperor Caligula] “Stop. Stop it!”

“That you should be Caesar! Vicious, treacherous, drunk with power. An evil, insane monster posing as emperor.”

The clip ends with Diana and Marcellus (Richard Burton) walking out the door and straight into heaven. Most of the movie is Marcellus’ story, which was an interesting character study on how one is able to mature even in the wake of severe youthful misbehaviors.

Battle Hymn of the Week

This week’s battle hymn — Styx, “Too Much Time On My Hands” — is dedicated to Pam Bondi, who should now have a free calendar to assist in her with the April 14th subpeona.

Letters From the Front

1. Brief summary of Pope Leo’s Palm Sunday address, per Associated Press.

2. Archbishop Broglio:

Letters from Leo — the American Pope & US Politics

“Not Sponsored by the Lord” — Military Archbishop Broglio Declares Iran War Unjust

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11 days ago · 121 likes · 17 comments · Christopher Hale

3. CNN poll on Iran war approval as reported in The Hill.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5812546-new-poll-cnn-rising-disapproval-of-us-war-with-iran/

US aircraft shot down:

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-3-2026-a6365c6123cc8a696474f576d4ce7668?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Apr03_2026_05:28PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

4. New York Post on Iran charging for safe passage through Straits of Hormuz.

https://nypost.com/2026/03/31/world-news/iran-to-charge-ships-passing-strait-of-hormuz-raising-risks-of-global-recession/

5. US lifts sanctions on Venezuela.

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-delcy-rodriguez-sanctions-maduro-d819e64fcdefa132c5b06c3ce0a81f88

6. NATO allies limiting US access.

https://truthout.org/articles/austria-becomes-latest-eu-country-to-deny-us-military-use-of-its-airspace/

7. Heather Cox Richardson live chat, 4/2/26.

8. Hegseth fires several generals per New York Times reporting (gift article).

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/us/politics/hegseth-fires-general-randy-george.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YFA.r1Ll.aNgj-BU71dpT&smid=nytcore-ios-share

9. Trump can’t easily escape January 6, 2021 liability.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-cant-escape-jan-6-case-judge-rules_n_695c0453e4b0c1bd90c49e14?origin=home-latest-news-unit

10. Supreme Court hears arguments about birthright citizenship.

https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-trump-birthright-citizenship-immigrants-4dca3a4e06f58d4378412ed711fab3a8?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Apr01_2026_12:21PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

11. Judge halts ballroom construction.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-white-house-ballroom-construction-halted-9cafc70569a3a05fcbaa6cafddbeace4?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar31_2026_03:19PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

12. Judge blocks defunding of NPR and PBS.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-npr-pbs-funding-executive-order-fbd9500e5f7400deab84ead188c35694?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar31_2026_02:36PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

13. Trump tries to stop mail-in voting via executive order.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-signs-sweeping-order-attacking-mail-in-voting/

14. Trump executive order to create national voting list.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-mail-voting-elections-47cc334b1fb7742244a9c4f176b355cd?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar31_2026_06:00PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

Democrats sue:

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/democrats-sue-trump-unlawful-order-mail-voting/?utm_campaign=14390844-News&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_7sli_FLiB5woJHqnhpIV4tGQhTm9KIa5v_BPg3A5xNHiv_1h83aUsSGeGga9su-_jZjyVFm-Y9vg9TbVxMQ4f0dfg8w&_hsmi=411870070&utm_content=411870070&utm_source=hs_email

15. Trump order to pay DHS employees.

https://apnews.com/article/senate-funding-homeland-security-shutdown-4a3e4a3e77bd33213b98888e79a81f51?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Apr02_2026_11:14AM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

16. Trump proposed budget.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/03/trump-white-house-budget-00857167

17. Katie Phang on Nexstar/Tegna and Paramount/Warner proposed mergers.

18. Miller orders to ICE may lead in Pretti’s death.

https://newrepublic.com/post/208362/stephen-miller-orders-ice-alex-pretti-death

19. Florida’s SAVE act meets immediate opposition.

https://member.democracydocket.com/ron-desantis-is-stomping-on-voting-rights-one-boot-at-a-time?utm_campaign=13199957-Premium%20Content%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8pM-Iul5GLeuZFTkoHJAUfMNVc6p8peSDnZcOFnbKsj_SMr_dUTL5SCZ2Ks9xSG7Lry7Duk2wyqTmS3xXMtBKtnq8p1A&_hsmi=412221733&utm_content=412221733&utm_source=hs_email

20. US Forest Service to be destroyed.

https://www.hatchmag.com/articles/trump-administration-orders-dismantling-us-forest-service/7716263

21. TN librarian fired.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/04/02/library-director-fired-lgbtq-books-tennessee/

22. Trump executive order about college sports.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/president-trump-delivers-new-executive-order-attempting-to-regulate-college-sports-165338483.html

23. New York Times article by Touval.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/opinion/israel-us-war-iran-literature.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XFA.5s3g.tbF0zf5Rikfn&smid=nytcore-i

24. How to Run a 30-day Political Influence Campaign.

The Existentialist Republic

How to Run a 30-Day Political Influence Campaign

Ten subscribers per article. That’s what keeps this publication, the model legislation, and this organizing community alive. It works out to around 20–30 cents per article. Otherwise it cannot continue. If this helps, help back. BuyMeACoffee.com/TheER…

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12 days ago · 124 likes · 25 comments · Christopher Armitage

25. The big money spenders on politics in 2026.

Robert Reich

Who's the Biggest Money Behind the Throne?

Friends…

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11 days ago · 2668 likes · 259 comments · Robert Reich

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Stats

3,300+ rallies in the USA, plus another 39 locations overseas. Counting appears to be settling on over 8 million attendees. That makes it the largest single-day political protest ever documented, anywhere ever, as far as I can tell.

Reflection

I’d never even considered going to a political rally before 2025. I’ve been to a bunch now, and over the last year I’ve noticed a gradual change. The Hands Off was attended mostly by retirees. No Kings 1 saw some parents with very young kids added. By No Kings 2 I was seeing students of high school & college age. Yesterday at No Kings 3 I saw more young adults, working age, than before. The message of resistance continues to permeate new levels of American society.

Much was made in 2010 about the Tea Party rallies which were rightly noted at the time as a big deal. They were a harbinger of a massive ‘red wave’ in the 2010 mid-term elections. Yesterday’s No Kings 3 saw over 20 times as many people out on the streets as there were for the Tea Party rallies.

Photos from Red States

Oklahoma City, OK

Biloxi, MS

Des Moines, IA

Charlestown, WV

Salt Lake City, UT

Greenville, SC

Louisville, KY

Boise, ID

Funny Costumes & Signs

Videos

Flagship event in Minnesota. Intro by Gov. Walz and then Bruce Springsteen playing “The Streets of Minneapolis.”

Raleigh, NC

Collage from some big cities

News Reports

1. CNN opened its paywall (at least for now) to show extensive coverage on dozens of individual rally locations:

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/28/us/live-news/no-kings-protests-03-28-26

2. Yahoo News covered it pretty well nation-wide too.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/worldwide-no-kings-rallies-set-142131365.html

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2 Minute Offense

1. The Iran Shuffle (aka Where is the Money Going?)

• USA: “Submit within 48 hours! We’re having a great conversation! You have 5 days to give in! Maybe we’ll work together?!” More US marines and paratroopers are shipped to the region. Meanwhile, the war continues.

• Iran: “There is no deal.” And the below, a headline from the Financial Times 3/27/26. See also Letters #1 from the Institute for the Study of War, offering the same perspective.

• Oil futures trading before Monday’s announcement of peace talks by President Trump (which proved untrue) led to a $580M windfall for someone; see Letters #2. And in the betting markets, bets on a ceasefire with Iran are reported as showing signs of insider knowledge (see Letters #3). And then there’s this:

2. Election-related news.

• In Florida local special elections, Emily Gregory wins the state district that includes Mar-A-Lago (a 14 point reversal from 2024, see Letters #4); Brian Nathan’s surprise, very close win in the Tampa Bay area suggests that at least 80% of Independents must have voted for him (see Letters #5).

• Pro-GOP gerrymander in Missouri ruled okay by state supreme court, even before voters can get to vote on it (see Letters #6).

• California sherrif seizes 600,000 ballots; CA sues him (see Letters #7) saying “some people should never be allowed to vote.”

• Oklahoma agrees to hand over voter rolls to DOJ (see Letters #8).

• Supreme Court hears case that could end or curtail voting by mail (see Letters #9).

3. Domestic stuff.

• State of Minnesota sues Trump regime for access to evidence regarding the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti (see Letters #10).

• TSA funding is approved by the Senate, not including Border Patrol and ICE (see Letters #11). This is what the Democrats were offering all along. However, the House rejects the Trump-approved deal (see Letters #12). Late breaking: President Trump signs an executive order to pay TSA (which may be illegal?)

• Legal judgements against big tech. New Mexico jury rules META harms children’s health; META owes $375M (see Letters #13; will the other 49 states sue?) Instagram and YouTube also found liable (see Letters #14).

• The US government is now paying a French company $1b taxpayer money to stop building windfarms (see Letters #15); this will increase prices and reliance on fossil fuels.

• Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s pastor wants James Talarico, Democratic candidate for the U. S. Senate from Texas, to die (see Letters #16)

• Jack Smith documents case releases the ‘prosecuting memo’ — possibly inadvertently. Jamie Raskin (D-MD, known as previous Trump impeachment prosecutor) says it reveals that President Trump illegally retained highly classified documents and that Trump showed classified maps to unauthorized people on his plane (see Letters #17).

• Heading into No Kings 3, a Fox poll (below) reveals President Trump is -18 approval overall. G. Elliot Morris has approval at -23 (see Letters #18).

• And then there’s the voter regret factor characterized below also be G. Elliot Morris (see Letters #19):

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Never Give Up

Just like Frodo.

Reconnaissance Mission

Will briefly highlight 3 podcasts from this past week.

1. Historians Heather Cox Richardson and Timothy Snyder. The professional admiration they have for one another is heartwarming, and the insights both share about the cross-section of US history and authoritarianism are very illuminating.

2. Erika Chenoweth and Steve Levitsky. Two experts on authoritarian regimes and resistance to them. Of special interest for me was the discussion of how the same pressures we’re feeling in the USA are also at play in Europe, but with the parliamentary style of government-formation, the results differ (see the 44 minute mark). In Europe the 30% far right has to persuade other groups to join them, whereas presently in the USA that far right group is governing alone, thanks to our counter-majoritarian institutions.

3. Live chat by Heather Cox Richardson, especially trying to answer the perpetual question, “What can we do?” (See the 48 minute mark.) In brief: (1) focus on your state, local attorneys general - these are the people who will be responsible for voting and counting votes; (2) show up for primaries; (3) make your voices heard now, when everything is unsettled with a weakening and lost presidency; (4) we need to hold the guardrails steady: we have elections that matter, pressure elected representatives to do that (5calls, card campaigns, visibility brigades).

Taking Action

No Kings 3 is tomorrow around the country and around the world. Looking back a year, I went to the first big rally, Hands Off in April 2025, and was more than a little nervous (never having been to a political rally ever, let alone one against a would-be authoritarian regime). Not anymore. Fear melts away when you realize that doing nothing is even more helpful to the bad guys. Please attend one near you, which the QR code below will help you to find.

Musing

The dominoes are starting to tumble. Greg Bovino is all the way out. Kristi Noem was fired. Now Corey Lewandowski has reportedly been fired (see Letters #20).

Kash Patel and Pam Bondi are teed up. Bondi has been subpeonad to talk under oath on April 14th; she’ll try to get out of it or refuse to show. Patel’s personal emails were reportedly hacked by Iranians (see Letters #21).

The guess here is that Patel will be the next to go. It’s not a good look when the director of the FBI has his personal emails hacked. Bondi will survive probably indefinitely, partly because she knows how not to answer questions under oath, and partly because she has been in the Trump orbit for a very long time and probably knows a lot; turning her loose might be risky to others in Trump’s orbit.

But the trend is clear, as in his first administration: Trump’s inner circle is unstable. Trump is known to be willing to shed allies and followers the instant it appears to favor him to do so. It is even less surprising that he’s dropping allies that are often people of color and women.

What I wonder is about when Putin will decide he needs to shed Trump. Trump has been a tremendous asset to all of Putin’s dreams, and there is no need for Putin to drop Trump at this time. But as Trump’s unpopularity deepens, what will Trump fear more: retribution from Putin or from the American public? If it ever becomes the latter, then Putin may have to act first.

Frodo’s Journey: March 27, Shire Reckoning 1419

Outside of Mordor, the warriors of Gondor and Rohan reach the Black Gate of Mordor and challenge Sauron to battle. They are met by the disdainful Mouth of Sauron, who shows them Frodo’s mithril mail coat, and asserts that his mission as a spy into Mordor has already failed. Outrageous demands follow, but Gandalf wants to see Frodo, which the Mouth cannot do. Gandalf rejects the terms and battle begins, with the Free Peoples surrounded and vastly outnumbered.

Frodo and Sam make the final, desperate push towards Mount Doom, crawling from slaghill to hollow. Frodo “walked half-bowed, often stumbling, as if his eyes no longer saw the way before his feet …. [his] left hand would often be raised as if to ward off a blow, or to screen his shrinking eyes from a dreadful Eye that sought to look in them.”

At last Frodo can move no more. Sam’s offer to carry the Ring for Frodo brings back a feral energy briefly back to Frodo.

A wild light came into Frodo’s eyes. ‘Stand away! Don’t touch me!’ he cried. ‘It is mine, I say. Be off!’ His hand strayed to his sword-hilts. But then quickly his voice changed. ‘No, no, Sam,’ he said sadly. ‘But you must understand. It is my burden, and no one else can bear it. It is too late now, Sam dear. You can’t help me in that way again. I am almost in its power now. I could not give it up, and if you tried to take it I should go mad.’

For their last gasp, Sam carries Frodo up the mountainside, and then they crawl together. And then Gollum attacks Frodo.

Sam saw these two rivals with other vision. A crouching shape, scarcely more than the shadow of a living thing, a creature now wholly ruined and defeated, yet filled with a hideous lust and rage; and before it stood stern, untouchable now by pity, a figure robed in white, but at its breast it held a wheel of fire. Out of the fire there spoke a commanding voice.

‘Begone, and trouble me no more! If you touch me ever again, you shall be cast yourself into the Fire of Doom!’

While Sam loses a scuffle with Gollum, Frodo enters the chamber leading to the very Cracks of Doom. There in a ringing voice, Frodo claims the Ring.

‘I have come,’ he said. ‘But I do not choose now to do what I came to do. I will not do this deed. The Ring is mine!’

Gollum attacks Frodo, and bites off the finger that wears the Ring.

Gollum, dancing like a mad thing, held aloft the ring, a finger still thrust within its circle. It shone now as if verily it was wrought of living fire.

‘Precious, precious, precious!’ Gollum cried. “My Precious! O my Precious!’ And with that, even as his eyes were lifted up to gloat on his prize, he stepped too far, toppled, wavered for a moment on the brink, and then with a shriek he fell. Out of the depths came his last wail precious and he was gone.

Mount Doom erupts and all of Middle-earth is shaken. Sam only felt great joy, for “there was Frodo, pale and worn, and yet himself again; and in his eyes there was peace now, neither strain or will, nor madness, nor any fear. His burden was taken away. There was the dear master of the sweet days in the Shire.” They escape the chamber, and are rescued by Gwaihir the Windlord and his kin, the great Eagles of the North, led by Gandalf. Before the Black Gate, the forces of Sauron lose cohension and morale, and many flee.

‘The realm of Sauron is ended!’ said Gandalf. ‘The Ring-Bearer has fulfilled his Quest.’ And as the Captains gazed south to the Land of Mordor, it seemed to them that, black against the pall of cloud, there rose a huge shape of shadow, impenetrable, lightning-crowned, filling all the sky. Enormous it reared above the world but impotent: for even as it leaned over them, a great wind took it, and it was all blown away, and passed; and then a hush fell.

Featured Scifi Episode

Skipped this week.

Battle Hymn of the Week

YES, “Lift Me Up,” the single version. There were two bands of four musicians each in the field in the late 1980s. All were principally veterans of the band YES from the 1970s and 1980s, but only one group had the rights to the band name. (The other played as Anderson, Bruford, Wakeman, & Howe.) But the musicians managed to work out their differences at least for one album and tour, producing some memorable music and concerts. The album was fittingly named Union.

Letters From the Front

1. Institute for the Study of War.

2. From 3/24/26 Heather Cox Richardson on the pre-market trading before Monday.

3. The Guardian reports on bets regarding a possible US-Iran ceasefire.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/23/bets-us-iran-ceasefire-show-signs-of-insider-knowledge-say-experts-polymarket

4. Emily Gregory victory in Florida state district.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/25/emily-gregory-election-results-meaning-for-midterms-2026/89312758007/

5. Brian Nathan win in Tampa Bay.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2026/03/27/senate-14-brian-nathan-democrats-special/

6. GOP Gerrymander in Missouri okayed.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/gop-derails-bid-to-stop-missouri-gerrymander-for-2026/

7. California sherrif seizes ballots.

https://www.democracydocket.com/?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8P49uHNU2izBx7rnHWA-7cTGJzvZkGfOgtvPY9DD-upyoKgqoUL9BmT_kg_I7Gjv2wFtmUstK5Z6VnBK2bQR10rnnHBw&_hsmi=410967406

8. OK hands over voter data.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/oklahoma-hands-over-voter-rolls-to-trump-doj-including-personal-data/

9. Supreme Court hears case on voting by mail.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/fate-of-gops-attack-on-mail-voting-in-the-balance-after-supreme-court-argument/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--lS00YDi619dylhVh2oKdJhBRENwWQiDI5OFP_RL88YR0ftG74fC_-FFnGBzGo_BEQHNuRW-zd6OWjV1QK8WRKDR8lSA&_hsmi=410207554&utm_content=410207554&utm_source=hs_email

10. Minnesota sues DOJ for Pretty & Good evidence.

https://apnews.com/article/immigration-minneapolis-sue-alex-pretti-renee-good-5a0b98ac7173ce0e9ecc3bf9a39e3919?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar24_2026_02:08PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

11. TSA funding approved by Senate.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-agrees-fund-dhs-ice-border-patrol-bid-shutdown-tsa-pay-delays-rcna265108

12. House may not pass TSA funding.

https://apnews.com/article/senate-tsa-homeland-security-airports-trump-672467393ae043e47938874e7aaddcd6?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar27_2026_02:37PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

And a second article.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/house-gop-erupts-over-senate-164015426.html

13. AP News reports on META ruling.

https://apnews.com/article/meta-facebook-new-mexico-trial-28eabd8ec5f58c1d1ecddc21bb107de7?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar24_2026_05:23PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

14. Instagram and YouTube also found liable.

https://apnews.com/article/social-media-addiction-trial-la-5e54075023d837ccdc76c4ca512e925d?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar25_2026_01:34PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

15. French company to be paid $1B not to build wind farms in US.

https://prospect.org/2026/03/25/trump-energy-wind-farms-orsted-cancel-project-total-energies-new-york-north-carolina/

16. Hegseth’s pastor wants James Talaricoo to die.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pete-hegseth-pastor-james-talarico-death_n_69c18fe3e4b0964b57003b56?k1b

17. Trump documents case memo released.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

An Inadvertent Release

Judge Aileen Cannon forbade it. There would be no release of Volume II of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s report, the part that dealt with the discovery that Donald Trump kept classified documents, some at the Top Secret/SCI level, when he left the White House. When Smith testified before Congress, he carefully tailored his responses to avoid violating the…

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17 days ago · 2649 likes · 239 comments · Joyce Vance

18. G. Elliott Morris on the latest polls.

Strength In Numbers

NEW POLL: Trump's approval stuck at record low as approval on prices sinks to -39

This article reports results from the March 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. You can read our previous poll releases here. Subscribers to Strength In Numbers have access to additional visuals and a full archive of crosstabs here. Subscribers can suggest questions for future polls…

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20 days ago · 202 likes · 15 comments · G. Elliott Morris

19. G. Elliott Morris on voter regret.

Strength In Numbers

Poll: 1 out of 8 Trump voters has buyer’s remorse about 2024

Programming note: I have a pressing family event this Saturday so there will be no Sunday roundup this weekend. I will also probably miss out on producing a crowdsourced estimate of the third No Kings demonstrations like I did for the first two, though precise details are TBD and things…

Read more

17 days ago · 135 likes · 26 comments · G. Elliott Morris

20. Lewandowski fired.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/kristi-noem-alleged-boyfriend-corey-121221425.html

21. Patel’s emails hacked.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-hackers-allegedly-breach-fbi-164000890.html

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2 Minute Offense

Donald Trump has one modus operandii — hurting others, which he apparently enjoys for its own sake; it also is a means to humiliate others and get them to submit to him. In the present that leaves him flailing out, often failing, leaving the rest of the world to deal with the fallout — or fight it.

1. Flailing.

• US Pentagon requests an additional $200,000,000,000 in military funding (see Letters #1). With about 200 million US citizens of tax-paying age who actually pay taxes, that is extra $1,000 for every taxpayer.

• Qatar says Iranian drone attacks destroyed 17% of its LND production capacity, causing an estimated loss of $20 billion annually; it will take up to 5 years to repair the damage (see Letters #2).

• Threats to Iran and counter threats from Iran. Climbing the escalation ladder, President Trump threatened US air strikes on an Iranian power plants (see Letters #3) with a 48 hour deadline for Iran to re-open the Straits of Hormuz. Iran threatens even more retaliation in return if this happens (see Letters #4). The US is sending more ground troops and ships to the region (see Letters #5). Israel attacks Iranian allies Hezbollah in Lebanon.

  

• Harvard sued by Trump regime again (see Letters #6).
  Trumpian logic: When you have taxpayer-funded lawyers at your command, you might as well use them to attack your enemies.

• ICE agents to assist TSA at airports starting on Monday March 23rd (see Letters #7). Reminder that it is the Senate Republicans who have refused to pass funding for TSA (see Letters #8); the Democrats have offered to support this funding 9 times now.

2. Failing.

• Inflation, as gauged by the producer price index, came in higher than expected at 3.4% with core goods at 3.9%, nearly twice the target of 2% (see Letters #9).

• The cost of oil is about $100 per barrel now, resulting in about a $1 per gallon hike to US consumers. (Graphic below from CNN.)

  

• Trump regime eases oil restrictions on Venezuela and … Iran? (See Letters #10 and #11). Iran profits by selling oil at a higher price while — and because — we are bombing Iran. The logic here is what, exactly?

• The Pentagon’s access restrictions imposed on reporters is ruled unconstitutional (see Letters #12).

• SAVE act under debate in the Senate (see Letters #13), where it is expected to either fail outright, or at least fail to pass filibuster.

• The Dow Jones is now (45,557) down 9% since its highest ever close in February before the attack on Iran (50,115, 2/6/26). (The weekend futures market is currently down am additional 1%.)

3. Fallout.

• The destruction of CBS as a news entity continues with the complete shuttering of its radio division (see Letters #14).

• New York’s attempted redistricting (attempted pro-Democrat for a 1 seat gain) is halted (see Letters #15).

• Joe Kent, Director of Counterterrorism, resigns, saying the attack on Iran was unwarranted; he makes sure to make anti-Israel charges on his way out the door, like the white nationalist anti-semite he appears to be (see Letters #16).

• Elon Musk found liable for misleading investors during Twitter takeover, ordered to pay $2 billion in damages to investors (see Letters #17).

• Sen. Ron Wyden (D-WA) accuses Department of Justice (DOJ) of obstruction in favor of Epstein (see Letters #18).

  

4. Fighting.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell charts path for staying on at the Fed even longer, in defiance of Trump (see Letters #19).

• Fulton Country strikes back against the seizure of its 2020 ballots (see Letters #20).

• Congress subpeonas Attorney General Pam Bondi for an under-oath session about the Epstein Files on April 14th (see Letters #21). Will she appear? Impeachment papers were filed against Bondi on March 17th (see Letters #22).

• Bishop Mark Seitz (Catholic, El Paso, TX) urges ICE officials not to follow illegal deportation orders (see Letters #23).

Pithy Wargaming Life Tip: Doing What We Must

I was pleased to provide signature for a couple of would-be local politicans last week. Hearing what they had to say reminded me of an email from Mallory McMorrow (running for Senate in Michigan) that had as its title, “We Didn’t Run Because We Always Wanted To. We Ran Because We Had To.” (See Letters #24). People who never gave politics a second thought are getting involved all over the country at all levels of activity. All because they felt they had to, that there was something that they personally needed to do. May we all seek that task that is unique to ourselves and which makes the world a better place.

Reconnaissance Mission

Robert Reich recently (see Letters #25) described why President Trump is in trouble in Iran using the OODA loop (boldface is Reich’s).

During the Korean War, U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd came up with a theory of competitive decision-making that shaped American military doctrine for a generation. He called it the OODA loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.

Boyd found that victory doesn’t go to the side with more firepower. It goes to the side that cycles through the OODA loop faster — observing what’s changing, orienting to its meaning, deciding what to do, and acting before its adversary does.

Get inside your opponent’s loop, Boyd reasoned, and you don’t just outpace him. You break his ability to form a coherent picture of the war he’s fighting.

Manley observes that Iran has adopted Boyd’s approach. Iran hasn’t needed to match American firepower; it’s needed only to generate economic and political problems for Washington that outrun Washington’s ability to orient, decide, and act.

Iran has gotten inside Trump’s OODA loop because Iran has responded to U.S. airstrikes by widening the war horizontally — attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, launching drones and missiles at Gulf state oil and gas infrastructure, provoking the U.S. and Israel to destroy even more of that infrastructure, hitting Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (causing regional outages for banking, e-commerce, and cloud services), and squeezing other choke points that the global economy depends on.

Iran’s leaders — veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq and Syria — are applying the same asymmetric logic to Trump’s war. Inexpensive drones, short-range missiles, and sea mines can have the same effect that IEDs had in Iraq — only with far greater strategic impact, because they disrupt global supply chains.

What has Washington done? Dropped more bombs and launched more missiles.

On Wednesday Israel struck at the crown jewel of Iran’s energy industry — the giant South Pars gas field that Iran shares with Qatar and is by far the largest in the world. (Israel says Trump gave the attack his blessing; Trump says he didn’t.) Iran quickly retaliated with an attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility.

The attacks have sent the global oil benchmark soaring and prompted a mad scramble in Washington. Trump threatens “to blow up the entirety” of Iran’s South Pars gas holdings if Iran attacks Qatar again. His treasury secretary says the U.S. will consider lifting sanctions on millions of barrels of Iranian oil.

Since he and Israel began bombing Iran, Trump’s strategy has been entirely reactive. Iran is generating problems for Washington faster than Washington can contain them — a clear sign that Iran is inside Trump’s OODA loop.

Trump and Israel assumed that overwhelming airpower would either compel Iran to surrender or trigger regime change. But neither has happened. The regime seems more entrenched and bellicose than ever.

As Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and attacks its Gulf neighbors’ oil and gas infrastructure, the cost-benefit ratio continues to shift against Trump: Economic and political pressures are mounting on Washington faster than they are on Tehran.

Sure, Iran is hurting — but, as Manley argues, Iran can sustain its counteroffensive more easily and longer than the U.S. can sustain economic damage to Iran. An Iranian Shahed drone made of styrofoam and powered by a motorcycle engine, for example, costs orders of magnitude less than the precision missiles sent to intercept it or the economic havoc it causes when it ignites a tanker, data center, or desalination plant.

…. So what’s next for the U.S.? Is there any way out for Trump?

He could put “boots on the ground” in Iran and attempt to seize Iran’s stockpile of approximately 970 pounds of 60 percent enriched uranium — enough to produce multiple nuclear weapons if further enriched. If he could pull this off, a major feat.

But this would be a particularly dangerous move in terms of American lives lost. It could even risk an accidental nuclear explosion.

Moreover, no one knows where the enriched uranium is being stored….

What about returning to the diplomatic table? As Richard Haass points out, Trump hardly gave diplomacy a chance before launching his war. U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner blended maximal positions — effectively demanding an end to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile force, and support for proxies — with minimal time for negotiation….

If Trump returned to negotiations now, from a position of demonstrated military capability rather than exhaustion, Iran might be forced to reorient and respond to an adversary that did something unpredictable.

The problem is that the Trump regime has repeatedly reneged on his promises to Iran, so Tehran has no reason to believe any offer Trump makes.

So, presumably for the foreseeable future, Iran will remain in Trump’s OODA loop, Trump will remain trapped in Iran, and American consumers will be trapped by soaring energy prices.

Taking Action

There are already many more locations than last time. It’s likely to be the biggest single-day political protest ever in world history. Use the QR code below to find one near you.

Musing

As Frodo’s Journey reaches its apex, it is interesting to observe how all of the lead characters are broken down, bit by bit, especially (but not exclusively) Frodo himself. Their assessment of the fight against Sauron is realistic and not optimistic. Yet they all exemplify that hope is a choice, not a feeling. They act upon their resolve with faith, accepting that they themselves may not survive, but still doing their best at what is necessary and right. Aragorn’s pity on the ‘faint-hearted’ is part of this, recognizing that everyone must do what they are able to do. which isn’t the same for everyone.

For Frodo, the unraveling goes even further. He hasn’t just lost hope, he is being physically unmade, as the quoted text (below) illustrates. All of his physical senses are compromised, and even his memories have become inaccessible. He has only the knowledge and determination that he must do his best, even though he is certain that best will not suffice or succeed.

Frodo is 50 years old in the story: middle-aged. He is not a peer of Sam, Merry, and Pippin (the movies get this wrong) but rather is a generation older then all of them. The wounds of spirit and body that he endures through his journey are never fully healed. Every October (when the Nazgûl stabbed him) and every March, he is very ill. Frodo’s heroism is not just that of determination, but also an acceptance of his own mortality, its limitations and its consequences.

Frodo’s Journey: March 22, Shire Reckoning 1419

The entire week for Sam and Frodo is unrelenting, impossible, and seemingly never-ending toil. They are in Mordor, cut off from all friends, aid, or hope, constantly trying to dodge the massive troop movements inside Mordor, and wheeling Nazgûl flying overhead. That those actions are in response to the brave deeds of their friends and allies on the outside is not something they are aware of.

The two of them only know that they must put one foot in front of the other. Disguised as Orcs they struggle northwards, surviving on a few crumbs of food and some elven waybread that Sam has, and the odd rivulet of murky water that they chance to find. They know that Gollum is still hounding them. The situation goes from bad to worse when they are captured by an Orc band, who see them as deserting soldiers and force them to run along with them. When the Orcs encounter another band of Orcs, in the ensuing scuffle, Frodo and Sam manage to escape, but Frodo’s remaining vitality has been drained almost to nothing.

Frodo has lost all hope, which admits to Sam more than once. He sees nothing but a wheel of fire before his eyes as the Ring’s power consumes him (“No taste of food, no feel of water, no sound of wind, no memory of tree or grass or flower, no image of moon or star are left to me.”) Sam, seeing that they are still some 50 miles from Mount Doom, and Frodo can hardly walk, has his own internal crisis — and resolves it.

The bitter truth came home to him at last: at best their provision would take them to their goal; and when the task was done, there they would come to an end, alone, houseless, foodless in the midst of a terrible desert. There could be no return….

But even as hope died in Sam, or seemed to die, it was turned into a new strength. Sam’s plain hobbit-face grew stern, almost grim, as the will hardened in him, and he felt through all his limbs a thrill, as if he was turning into some creature of stone and steel that neither despair nor weariness nor endless barren miles could subdue.

Elsewhere, the forces of Mordor are assaulting the Free Peoples of the world, from the Lonely Mountain to Lothlórien. In Gondor, Aragorn reveals his kingly powers of healing and saves Éowyn, Faramir, and Merry; the latter hears the tale of their journey through the Paths of the Dead and beyond from Legolas and Gimli. Then the victorious captains convene to decide what they should do next. Gandalf speaks:

“Hardly has our strength sufficed to beat off the first great assault. The next will be greater. This war then is without final hope, as Denethor perceived. Victory cannot be achieved by arms, whether you sit here to endure siege after siege, or march out to be overwhelmed beyond the River. You have only a choice of evils…. I said victory could not be achieved by arms. I still hope for victory, but not by arms.”

Gandalf counsels that they set forth to challenge Mordor in order to draw the full attention and power of Sauron to themselves. This plan is suicidal for them, but may give Frodo and Sam a slightly better chance on their quest. An army of soldiers from both Gondor and Rohan marches eastward across the River Anduin, and turns northwards towards the Black Gate. They defeat an enemy scouting force, but as they pass through the blasted and desolate lands outside Mordor, Aragorn perceives that some of their soldiers are ‘unmanned,’ too terrified to continue. Rather than chastise or compel them, he has pity, and lets them go freely, giving them a secondary military objective to pursue to help bolster their sense of worth, and to help the situation.

Featured Scifi Episode

The best news of the week was that “Firefly,” the one-season cult scifi classic (and my personal vote for Best TV Show Ever), is getting another shot with an animated series (see Letters #26) if the funding can be sorted out. This is great news, because we all need more episodes like “Jaynestown,” in which criminal Jayne Cobb (played by Adam Baldwin) is mistakenly seen as a Robin Hood-esque bandit for the people. As Wash (Alan Tudyk) puts it in the 2-minute clip below, while they all listen in astonishment to the’Ballad of Jayne’ at a bar: “We gotta to go to the crappy town where I’m a hero!”

Battle Hymn of the Week

For Frodo, “In Dreams,” from “The Fellowship of the Ring” movie.

Letters From the Front

1. Reuters reporting on Pentagon request for $200B additional funding.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-seeks-more-than-200-billion-budget-request-iran-war-washington-post-2026-03-18/

2. LNG damage in Qatar.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/iran-attack-wipes-out-17-of-qatars-lng-capacity-for-up-to-five-years-qatarenergy-ceo-says/

3. AP News on Iran.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-march-21-2026-260bac76e5554ff31aaf5a3a30c92a2e?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar21_2026_05:38AM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

4. Iranian counter-threats.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-unswayed-trumps-48-hour-deadline-threats-obliterate-energy-infras-rcna264607

5. US sending more troops and ships to Persian Gulf.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/world/middleeast/us-marines-persian-gulf-iran-deploy.html

6. Trump regime sues Harvard again.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/20/trump-administration-new-harvard-lawsuit-antisemitism

7. ICE at airports.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/22/trump-ice-tsa-airports-shutdown-immigration/89274375007/

8. Senate Republicans refuse to pass funding for TSA.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5794925-tsa-funding-senate-rules/

9. Hopium Chronicles on inflation and other economic indicators

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

Today's Ugly PPI Inflation Report Is Further Confirmation That Trump Is A Titanic, Vainglorious F*ck Up

Friends, we got another bad economic report this morning - one of the three main inflation gauges, the Producer Price Index, came in way above expectations in February. Here’s CNBC…

Read more

a month ago · 404 likes · 32 comments · Simon Rosenberg

10. Oil restrictions eased on Venezuela

https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-war-venezuela-oil-supplies-prices-3a3ca446459b3ab0127c08ad0808cc15?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar18_2026_10:10AM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

11. Iranian tankers at sea allowed to sell oil.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-temporarily-lifts-sanctions-on-iranian-oil-at-sea/

12. Pentagon press restrictions are ruled unconstitutional.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/media/pentagon-press-restrictions-new-york-times.html

13. SAVE act debated in Senate.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/save-act-reaches-senate

14. CBS news radio closed.

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/413709/cbs-radio-goes-silent-network-is-being-closed-in.html

15. New York redistricting halted.

https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/new-york-congressional-redistricting-challenge-2/

16. Joe Kent resigns.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-war-kent-resignation-e2e17a76d79617a68370f076c0291208?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar17_2026_09:54AM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

17. Musk misled Twitter investors.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/jury-finds-musk-misled-investors-during-twitter-takeover-absolves-him-of-some-fraud-claims

18. Wyden’s charges in Heather Cox Richardson’s newsletter, 3/18/26.

19, Jerome Powell charts path to stay on at Fed.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-long-running-push-to-oust-powell-could-keep-the-fed-chair-around-for-longer-130039444.html

20. Fulton County update.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

Fulton County Files Its Brief

Fulton County did not mince words in its amended response to the government’s motion to quash…

Read more

a month ago · 1958 likes · 78 comments · Joyce Vance

21. AG Bondi subpeona.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/epstein-pam-bondi-trump-doj-subpoena.html

22. Bondi impeachment

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/1119/text

23. Bishop Seitz.

https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/dispatches/2026/03/16/bishop-seitz-deportation-grave-moral-evil/

24. Mallory McMorrow

In the Arena by Mallory McMorrow

We Didn't Run Because We Always Wanted To. We Ran Because We Had To.

I’ve always admired Senator Warren…

Read more

a month ago · 213 likes · 13 comments · Mallory McMorrow

25. Robert Reich on Trump in Iran.

Robert Reich

The REAL Reason Trump is Trapped in Iran

Friends…

Read more

25 days ago · 5376 likes · 497 comments · Robert Reich

26. Firefly is back, hopefully.

https://www.space.com/entertainment/space-movies-shows/firefly-is-getting-an-animated-series-featuring-the-original-cast-and-were-all-shiny-with-anticipation

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Admittedly, our winter has felt like the one described below (from “Groundhog Day,” with Bill Murray). The 2 Minute Offense lately may feel like the News of Endless Despair. But the Bleak Winter of ‘26 finally ends this week, and I believe the seeds of our renewal have already taken root, and will soon begin to thrive.

2 Minute Offense

1. Domestic Strife.

• The Senate fails to fund DHS again (see Letters #1). ICE has plenty of funding to continue their lawless cruelty, but at least Democratic Senators are making a stand.

• The SAVE Act is reportedly going to a vote on the senate floor next week. Senate majority leader Thune declines Trump’s urging to block the filibuster saying he simply doesn’t have the votes; with at least one Republican senator against this (Murkowski, R-AL), it is unclear if it will pass at all let alone clear the filibuster requirement of 60 votes (see Letters #2).

• FCC Chairman Carr threatens to revoke media licenses if they don’t provide favorable coverage of the Iranian War for the Trump administration.

• Judge Boasberg quashes investigation of Jerome Powell at the Fed (see Letters #3), saying "There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas' dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will."

• Rep. Kiley (now I-CA) formally leaves GOP to be independent (“In a sea of congressional bloviators, Kevin Kiley has always stood out,” see Letters #4). Kiley hasn’t changed, but the shift readies him for new California congressional districts and is a sign that he feels being a Republican is problematic if he wants to keep his job; he will continue to caucus with Republicans.

• Watchdog accuses ex-DOGE worker of stealing Social Security data on a thumb drive (see Letters #5).

• ICE’s investigative arm has taken Maricopa country, AZ, ballots from 2020 (see Letters #6).

• Missouri judge gives green light to Missouri (pro-Republican) redistricting (see Letters #7).

• Dow Jones is now (46,558) down 7% since its highest ever close in February before the attack on Iran (50,115, 2/6/26).

• Domestic media consolidation under billionaire ownership continues.

2. Violence at Home

• House Oversight wants to question a prison guard about Epstein’s death (see Letters #8).

• A Michigan synagogue was rammed (see Letters #9).

• USA votes against women’s rights at UN, as part of a disagreement over all manner of gender rights. “The United States stood entirely alone against the Agreed Conclusions, a document that, until this session, had always been adopted by consensus since that practice began in 1996,” (see Letters #10).

3. War abroad.

• New York Times reporting confirms that a US Tomahawk missile is what killed 150+ children — and that the Deparment of Defense has fired nearly all of its staff tasked with avoiding civilian casualties in war.

Dear reader, that was your and my tax dollars at work. The missile had our initials on it.

• War expanding: Iranian cyberattack against Stryker, a US medical technology company (see Letters #11).

• About the new Iranian Ayatollah:

• New Ayatollah says that the Straits of Hormuz should be closed for duration of war (see Letters #12). This statement alone, apart from any military action, roiled insurance and finance markets. And there is military action too:

• Will the Houthis, Iranian allies in Yemen, be able to interdict global shipping in the Red Sea?

• Financial Times: “European countries including France have opened talks with Tehran seeking to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe passage for their ships through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people briefed on the efforts,” (see Letters #13).

• Who’s winning the US/Israeli war with Iran? Putin. Sanctions are eased and oil prices up; this is a huge windfall of funding for Russia (see Letters #14).

• The US has new and not battle-tested minesweepers deployed; are they up to the task? (See Letters #15.)

• USA is now bombing Kharg Island; this will damage Iran’s oil exports; the USA is also sending 2,500 - 5,000 marines to the region, possibly to target the small but vital island (see Letters #16).

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Give Away Nothing

Too many gamers rely too heavily on their imagination. They start the game and they craft a dastardly plan for victory. It may be a good or lousy plan; that is beside the point. The point is that the Plan — as noted recently — is always the first casualty in war, and Hope dies last. Thinking otherwise is asking for trouble.

If your plan fails and takes your Hope down with it, then you’ve lost the game much, much sooner than you needed to lose it — if you even needed to lose at all. I’ve known some excellent gamers who could assess situations far better than I, and have seen them look and say “I’m toast” — but in some cases, they played on anyways, and sometimes actually won.

Does that mean their analysis was bad? No. But they were still good players, and able to do some things that were perhaps not part of the original plan. They adapated. They kept playing, which is the most important thing. When you quit, you lose 100% of the time — it’s cliché but true. If you play on, your chances of winning are greater than 0%. Inigo in “The Princess Bride” simply refused to quit, even after being stabbed a few times; Count Rugen didn’t know what to do when his plan for victory didn’t force Inigo to give up.

Iran may be taking that mentality to heart. The damage to their facilities, troops, and equipment has been terrible. The cost in Iranian lives is enormous. But so far they are still playing. The US “player” has shown himself to be erratic, which may help that decision. You always like to keep playing against someone like that to give that opponent every opportunity to make a mistake.

Follow-up from last week: it was nice to hear a professional military leader say that airpower alone does not force surrender. The U. S. Strategic Bombing Survey after World War II (that I read years ago) concluded something similar: bombing the heck out of civilians under an authoritarian regime causes them to rely more on the regime just to survive, and thus makes it less likely they will rise up against it.

Reconnaissance Mission

Here’s a great 10 minute summary of how to think about the Iran war in economic terms. I can only offer this as high praise: Wolfers would make an excellent wargamer (and possibly marriage counselor). “Why is that countries, like couples, are often stuck in fights they don’t really need? Over-optimism, or over-confidence.”

Taking Action

Indivisible co-leader Ezra Levin was interviewed (see Letters #17) recently with respect to the coming No Kings 3 rallies on March 28th (bold added by me).

I don't care if he calls out the National Guard. I don't care if he threatens us with prosecution. I don't care if he threatens to take away our rights. If we don't show up for rights, we don't have them. So we're going to show up. So we had three million people at Hands Off, five million people at No Kings 1, seven million people at No Kings 2, No Kings 3 on March 28th. This week, we are going to announce we have more events on the map than we had for No Kings 2. It's going to be the largest protest in American history. Because as bad as he is, as much as he is lashing out, every time he does that, more people come into the movement….

I think sometimes it feels like our enemy is Trump, or our enemy is the Republicans, or our enemy is some elected official that isn’t doing what we would like them to do. Or some business or some university or some law firm… those aren’t the enemies. They are opponents from time to time in these campaigns. But the real enemy in this moment… when we’re trying to defeat this authoritarian agenda, the real enemy is cynicism and nihilism and fatalism, a sense that nothing we do matters, that it’s all a foregone conclusion, that this guy has all the power. It doesn’t matter what we do because the end is already written. And that’s what we try to bust through. That’s what we try to break people of thinking. We want them to have hope. We want them to believe that what they’re doing matters and that by collectively doing it, we can actually make change.

So I think events like No Kings, what they can accomplish if they are wildly successful is they make clear that, oh, wow, maybe democracy will reassert itself. Maybe we are going to have elections. Maybe he can’t just railroad the Twin Cities or Chicago or L.A. Maybe he’s not going to be able to accomplish everything he wants to accomplish because maybe people aren’t going to be so afraid that they don’t show up. That is one thing it can accomplish, but if that is one day, that’s not success. The biggest one-day protest that you can imagine will not save democracy, will not defeat fascism. So half of the successes [is to] get a whole bunch of new people out, an unexpected number of people in an unexpected number of places.

But then the other half of it is plugging them into their own local organizing. I want to see people going to start new Indivisible groups or 50501 groups, or finding the immigrant rights organization and becoming an ICE watcher themselves, or signing up for an ACLU “Eyes on ICE” training. We need people plugged in to that organizing work, not just to do the work and learn the skills. Bcause then they become part of a community. It’s not just existing on an email list or belonging to the right party and voting the right way… it’s finding your people where you are. And that’s what will fuel your work from here until when Trump is just in the trash heap of history. So I am most interested in how do we get people to take the step on March 29th to join that community. And so a lot of work is going into that handoff between No Kings 3 and the next thing.

Use the QR code below to find a No Kings rally near to you.

Musing

According to the Hollywood Reporter: “UFC fighters will travel to the FBI's academy in Quantico, Virginia, this week to train agents,” (no kidding; see Letters #18).

This will be added this to the developing Trump Years sitcom a decade from now, for which a great title was recently offered: “The Thoughtless Misadventures of an Unsocialized Infant.”

This week’s episode: Bluffy the Yell Leader, chief public relations propagandist, announces that security czar Chief Toady has come up with yet another one of his great ideas: hire professional wrestlers to train the agents! Iron Pumper, the national chief of defense, gives two brawny, muscular thumbs up, with a sly grin to the cameras, and says he’ll do the same for his military troops (while secretly wishing he’d had the idea himself). He further declares “The Greasy Straits are open; others just happen to be shooting at it” (see Letters #19).

Next week’s episode: Everyone has to wear the Little Fuhrer’s favorite shoe brand! (See Letters #20.)

Dramatis personae
Little Fuhrer: can’t stop talking and just wants to be feared or loved, he can’t make up his mind which
Vice Fuhrer: always conniving and angling to be next in succession
Head of Justice: dazzling but cruel
Shadow Man: pulls everyone’s strings behind the curtain
Iron Pumper: the vain, loud, and widely-mocked national chief of defense
Bluffy the Yell Leader: blonde spinmeister of the realm, gets others out of (and occasionally into) hot water
Chief Toady: domestic security czar
Senator Crochet: head of the Diet, the do-nothing legislature; is always seen knitting but doing nothing else

Prior episode: Try to send a hospital boat from Louisiana, that you don’t have and/or which is short on medical supplies, to help Greenland, which has universal health care for free that is far better than what Lousianans typically receive.

Frodo’s Journey: March 15, Shire Reckoning 1419

The Lord of the Rings has traditional heroes, like the Riders of Rohan in the screen shot above, but none of that would have mattered if not for the everyday heroes Frodo and Sam who just refused to give up. This exchange is perhaps the most relatable to all of us today. We’re at perhaps the worst point in the story of our real-life times, and we don’t know how it will turn out, and it may not be to a good end for everyone. But we can’t turn back, and closing the book isn’t an option either.

Frodo, Sam, and Gollum ascend the ‘stairs’ above Minas Morgul to Gollum’s secret entrance into Mordor. As they have a last meal before entering the darkness, Sam and Frodo reflect on their situation.

[Sam] “The brave things in the old tales and songs, Mr. Frodo: adventures, as I used to call them. I used to think that they were things the wonderful folk of the stories went out and looked for, because they wanted them, because they were exciting and life was a bit dull, a kind of a sport, as you might say. But that’s not the way of it with the tales that really mattered, or the ones that stay in the mind. Folk seem to have been just landed in them, usually — their paths were laid that way, as you put it. But I expect they had lots of chances, like us, of turning back, only they didn’t. And if they had, we shouldn’t know, because they’d have been forgotten. We hear about those as just went on — and not all to a good end, mind you; at least not to what folk inside a story and not outside it call a good end. You know, coming home, and finding things all right, though not quite the same — like old Mr. Bilbo. But those aren’t always the best tales to hear, though they may be the best tales to get landed in! I wonder what sort of tale we’ve fallen into?”

“I wonder,” said Frodo. “But I don’t know. And that’s the way of a real tale. Take any one that you’re fond of. You may know, or guess, what kind of a tale it is, happy-ending or sad-ending, but the people in it don’t know. And you don’t want them to.”…

[Sam recounts tales from the Silmarillion] “Why, to think of it, we’re in the same tale still! It’s going on. Don’t the great tales ever end?”

“No, they never end as tales,” said Frodo. “But the people in them come, and go when their part’s ended. Our part will end later — or sooner.”

“And then we can have some rest and some sleep,” said Sam. He laughed grimly. “And I mean just that, Mr. Frodo. I mean plain ordinary rest, and sleep, and waking up to a morning’s work in the garden. I’m afraid that’s all I’m hoping for all the time. All the big important plans are not for my sort. Still, I wonder if we shall ever be put into songs or tales. We’re in one, of course; but I mean: put into words, you know, told by the fireside, or read out of a great big book with red and black letters, years and years afterwards. And people will say: ‘Let’s hear about Frodo and the Ring!’ And they’ll say: ‘Yes, that’s one of my favourite stories. Frodo was very brave, wasn’t he, dad?’ ‘Yes my boy, the famousest of the hobbits, and that’s saying a lot!’”

[Frodo laughed] a long clear laugh from his heart…. “You and I, Sam, are still stuck in the worst places of the story, and it is all too likely that some will say at this point, ‘Shut the book now, dad; we don’t want to read anymore.’”

“Maybe,” said Sam, “but I wouldn’t be one to say that. Things done and over and made into part of the great tales are different. Why, even Gollum might be good in a tale, better than he is to have by you, anyway. And he used to like tales himself once, by his own account. I wonder if he thinks he’s the hero or the villain?”

Gollum (after almost repenting) then betrays them to Shelob, whose sting appears to kill Frodo. Sam stabs and drives off Shelob and takes the Ring for safekeeping. Sam is tempted by the Ring, but he resists the lure of claiming it as his own. Not knowing what else to do, he follows as two bands of Orcs, led by everyone’s favorite Orcs Gorbag and Shagrat, haul off Frodo’s body. To Sam’s shock, they let slip that Frodo is only immobilized and not dead. After Gorbag’s and Shagrat’s troops turn on and slaughter each other, Sam is able to rescue Frodo, who is worn and wounded from torture, from the tower of Cirith Ungol. The two of them escape into broken lands of Mordor.

In the west, Gandalf and Pippin endure seige in the fortress city Minas Tirith by Sauron’s forces, who are led by the chief Black Rider, the Lord of the Nazgûl. Faramir is felled by a poisoned dart and lies near death; this causes his father Denethor, Steward of Gondor, to break under the strain of fear, doubt, and hopelessness — the latter a consequence of his being daunted and deceived by Sauron when Denethor unwisely used the Palantír; Denethor abandons the defense of the city to Gandalf.

Aragorn summons the Dead to aid him, and together they drive another host out of southern Gondor; they arrive to Pelargir on the coast, where they capture a fleet from Mordor’s allies, the Corsairs of Umbar.

While Ents fend off an assault on western Rohan, King Théoden musters the Riders of Rohan. Merry is shamed and angry that he is to be left behind.

Unnoticed a Rider came up and spoke softly in the hobbit’s ear.

“Where will wants not, a way opens, so we say,” he whispered, “and so I have found myself.”

The mysterious Rider, Dernhelm, sneaks Merry along as the host races to the defense of Minas Tirith. With the help of Ghân-buri-Ghân and the Wild Woses, who lead them through the hidden paths of a dense forest, the Riders of Rohan sneak past another army of Sauron that was blocking the road. They arrive just at dawn as the assault on Minas Tirith has begun to break through into the city led.

This 5 minute clip from the “Return of the King” is the greatest moment of the movie trilogy.

The army of Mordor is driven back, but not yet defeated. The Lord of the Nazgûl traps Théoden, who is mortally wounded under his fallen horse Snowmane. As the wraith moves in for the kill, Dernhelm stands forth.

“Begone, foul dwimmerlaik, lord of carrion! Leave the dead in peace!”

A cold voice answered: “Come not between the Nazgûl and his prey! Or he will not slay thee in thy turn. He will bear thee away to the houses of lamentation, beyond all darkness, where thy flesh shall be devoured, and thy shriveled mind be left naked to the Lidless Eye.”

A sword rang as it was drawn. “Do what you will; but I will hinder if, it I may.”

“Hinder me? Thou fool. No living man may hinder me!”

Then Merry heard of all sounds in that hour the strangest. It seemed that Dernhelm laughed, and the clear voice was like the ring of steel. “But no living man am I! You look upon a woman. Éowyn I am, Éomund’s daughter. You stand between me and my lord and kin. Begone, if you be not deathless! For living or dark undead, I will smite you, if you touch him!”

This Éowyn does.

The battle still hangs in the balance, when a fleet arrives: Aragorn, leading the Dead. They sweep over the remaining allies of Mordor, and victory is secured, but not before Denethor kills himself in flames; the unconscious and fevered Faramir is rescued from the same fate by Pippin and Gandalf. Minas Tirith is saved, and free peoples live to fight another day.

Below is the most beautiful rendition of a song from the Lord of the Rings, from the BBC audio version in the 1970s. The words are Tolkien’s from the story’s text, and highlight his use of alliteration in the Old English tradition of Beowulf (3 minutes). It is a song in honor of the slain Théoden, and the courageous Riders of Rohan.

Featured Scifi Episode

Star Trek: Voyager’s episode “The Muse” (season 6, episode 22) is a story with layers. The top layer is the shipwreck of B’Elanna Torres on an alien planet that has a culture that is equivalent technologically and developmentally to that of the ancient Greeks. Torres is aided by a would-be playwright named Kelis, and in exchange for Kelis’ help, Torres tells Kelis stories of Voyager’s adventures. The playwright uses these to entertain the brawny local strongman and win his favor and gifts.

There’s a thread that runs through the episode beyond the adventure-rescue themes or the political-theatrical interpersonal dramas of the locals. This other idea is brought forward by Kelis as he begs Torres for a special kind of the story. The idea is as old as humanity itself: Kelis needs a story can change hearts, since a changed heart can change the world.

KELIS: My patron's been angered by the leader of a neighbouring state. He'll want to take revenge. It could lead to war.
TORRES: We Eternals aren't supposed to take sides.
KELIS: I'm not asking you to fight. I need a way to change his mind.
TORRES: I don't have that kind of magical power.
KELIS: Yes, you do. I believe the right kind of play can turn the mind from violent thoughts. The perfect play might even stop a war.

and again later:

KELIS: Anger is like fire. Love can be the rain that extinguishes it. My patron is filled with hatred for his rival, so our play should be filled with love.
TORRES: You can't change somebody's way of life with a few lines of dialogue.
KELIS: Yes, you can. It's been done before. Do you know what this place used to be a hundred years ago? A temple, and this was the altar stone. Every year a victim would be sacrificed on it in honour of winter. And then one year, nobody remembers exactly when or why, a play took the place of the ritual, and no one had to die here again. Why can't my play take the place of a war?

Battle Hymn of the Week

This song is beautiful and haunting. It was written from both a personal place as well as in response to events in Minneapolis by a young mom and white collar professional. That’s her in her fleece jacket and with earbuds in, just a normal person. This is her only song, but it’s the real thing. Please listen, because she’s right: we’ve got to be louder than hate. Jayme Hoiness, “Louder Than Hate (Our Song).” That too is a story we need to hear, and tell.

Letters From the Front

1. Senate fails to fund DHS.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/mar/12/republicans-trump-iran-senate-majority-leader-john-thune-voter-id-bill-save-america-act-politics-live-news-updates

2. SAVE Act may be debated and voted on next week.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/gop-plans-marathon-debate-but-save-america-act-unlikely-to-cross-the-finish-line/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_8GFp0_0UVarg7pCKUWPS8wki1mZ-qiB6YA0q32ssBg018uLR58H8_lgwO37bwsIVNveKDqALCIVxhqnl0HjKJHMCAoA&_hsmi=408551220&utm_content=408551220&utm_source=hs_email

3. Judge Boasberg stops investigation of Powell.

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/13/nx-s1-5747122/doj-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-jeanine-pirro

4. Kiley to run as independent.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/03/republican-independent-california-kevin-kiley/686324/

5. DOGE worker accused of stealing Social Security data.

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/11/nx-s1-5745153/doge-social-security-data-whistleblower-investigation

6. Maricopa, AZ ballots.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-ice-hsi-arizona-election-investigation/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--T9a1vrjZto6YGphYdJ7A6oVYRGanfv7Txy2CiUYr0sZgY9ZCzNXf_oTxywH29ca1svfUC7bcUYKTl3v517tI_OlfPGQ&_hsmi=408323066&utm_content=408323066&utm_source=hs_email

7. Missouri redistricting.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/missouri-court-upholds-gops-gerrymandered-map-for-midterms-other-legal-challenges-continue/

8. Guard near Epstein suicide being investigated.

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/13/oversight-jeffrey-epstein-suicide-prison-guard?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

9. Michigan synagogue rammed.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/temple-israel-michigan-synagogue-attack-what-know-rcna263045

Hollywood Reporter

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/politics-news/ufc-fighters-train-fbi-agents-1236528510/

10. USA vote at UN against all gender rights.

https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-stands-alone-un-womens-rights-vote-1785321

11. Iranian cyberattack.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-appears-conducted-significant-cyberattack-us-company-first-war-st-rcna263084?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

12. Straits of Hormuz should be closed, per new Ayatollah.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/5780638-iran-mojtaba-khamenei-strait-hormuz-persian-gulf/

13. Europeans look to negotiate safe passage directly with Iran.

Meidas+

Today in Politics, Bulletin 327. 3/13/26

… CNN: “The Pentagon and NSC significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. Trump’s national security team failed to fully account for the potential consequences of what some officials have described as a worst-case scenario now facing the admin…

Read more

a month ago · 465 likes · 86 comments · Ron Filipkowski

14. New York Times, who is winning the war?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/us/politics/trump-russia-oil-sanctions.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20260313&instance_id=172425&nl=breaking-news&regi_id=726286&segment_id=216587&user_id=2276c265798522db34332abcd662f646

15. New US minelayers.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2026/03/12/the-us-navy-decommissioned-middle-east-minesweepers-last-year-heres-what-they-did/

16. US marines sent to Middle East.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-us-march-13-2026-oil-prices-2a86a1f5c5997b70c6586d957074fb0c?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar13_2026_03:33PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

17. Ezra Levin interviewed by Simon Rosenberg.

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

Indivisible's Ezra Levin On No Kings, Letting Go, And Building A Mass Pro-Democracy Movement In America

Greetings all. Sending along one of my favorite discussions since the founding of Hopium - a new talk recorded earlier today with Indivisible’s Ezra Levin. I asked Ezra to come by and preview the upcoming March 28th No Kings day, and reflect a bit on the inspiring success of Indivisible and the No Kings movement. A recording of our wonderful discussi…

Listen now

a month ago · 666 likes · 57 comments · Simon Rosenberg, Ezra Levin, and Indivisible

18. UFC will train FBI

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/politics-news/ufc-fighters-train-fbi-agents-1236528510/

19. Hegseth: straits of Hormuz are open, but Iran is shooting at them.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360951156/hegseth-says-strait-hormuz-open-transit-iran-shooting-shipping

20. Trump and shoes

https://www.comicsands.com/trump-aides-same-shoes?utm_source=Bluesky&utm_medium=infeed&utm_campaign=linkprogram#Echobox=1773422268

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2 Minute Offense

1. Conflict and conscience. The Iran war appears to be developing as follows.

• Inital strikes: US-Israel tried to knock out as much Iranian airpower as possible and tried to kill leaders; Iran is thought to have launched lower-grade weapons designed to soak up the limited anti-missile and anti-drone defenses before using better weapons.

• Second wave: US-Israel are now attempting to destroy Iranian ballistic missile launchers to prevent future attacks; Iran has tried to cause havoc throughout the region.

• Strategies: US-Israel appear to be following military-political thinking (gain air supremacy to kill leaders and destroy enemy military assets); Iran is pursuing an economic approach (cause the world economy to falter via spiralling oil and natural gas problems, thus pressuring US-Israel to stop).

• Analysis: Both sides appear to be progressing towards their goals (this is possible since those goals are not in immediate or direct opposition to each other). Which side has the better strategy may prove decisive; see the Recon Mission for more.

Below is from a global conflict site (https://liveuamap.com/, image from 3/7/26) to give a sense of the scope of what is going on in the region. Each circle gives some more info if you hover over it on the website. For example, one of the yellow circles over the United Arab Emirates mentions 1300+ drones and 200+ ballistic missiles have been fired at the UAE with the ‘vast majority’ successfully intercepted; most circles are limited (e.g., ‘Air defense intercepted a missle launched from Iran’).

• Iranian death count has surpassed 1,000 including nearly 200 children. The Catholic Archbishop of Chicago issued a statement (see Letters #1):

What a profound moral failure…. Our government is treating the suffering of the Iranian people as a backdrop for our own entertainment, as if it’s just another piece of content to be swiped through while we’re waiting in line at the grocery store. But, in the end, we lose our humanity when we are thrilled by the destructive power of our military.

• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) highlights that one of the first strikes in the Iranian War made by the United States was made against a girl’s school, killing over 100 young girls. In war information becomes hard to get, but when a first strike is mistakenly (one hopes it wasn’t deliberately) made against a girls’ school, the level of incompetence is shocking.

• Elsewhere, the US struck Ecuador (see Letters #2), and rhetoric for an attack on Cuba is unmistakably growing (“Just a question of time,” see Letters #3).

• A German friend taught me: the first casualty in war is always the Plan, and Hope dies last.

2. Mores and morality.

• Sen. Whitehouse (D-RI) made a Senate-floor speech that connected all of the dots between Putin, Epstein, Trump, and various others in their orbit these last decades. The storyline is unmistakable; no one could listen to this and come to any conclusion other than Putin, Epstein, and Trump have been in collusion from the beginning. The 45 minute speech received over 1 million views in the first 2 days of its release.

The senator’s conclusion:

What I’ve done here today is lay out the facts, as documented by the many brave survivors who have come forward at great personal risk as well as by the many journalists who have tried, and continue to try, to get to the truth. As a lawyer, I know that you can prove cases with circumstantial evidence; you don’t always need the smoking gun. Here we have links with Russia, girls from Russia, money from Russia, people from Russia, deals and transactions with Russia, contacts with people with Russian intelligence, news reports exploring contacts with Russia, and an official investigation from the government of Poland into an Epstein-Russia connection. Sometimes, with a little imagination, we have a chance to see what’s right in front of your face.

• Adding to the senator’s story: reporting yesterday revealed that another inmate overheard guards talking about a cover-up of Epstein’s death in jail in 2019 (see Letters #4). Bottom line: there is a strong possibility that Epstein was murdered, during President Trump’s first administration when Trump was about to be impeached for his ties to Russia what Epstein knew all about.

• President Obama gave a moving tribute to Rev. Jesse Jackson. See Letters #5 for the full 28-minute appreciation; here is a 1-minute clip that speaks most clearly to us all today.

3. Elections and electioneering.

• Primary elections in Texas and elsewhere last week showed very well for the Democrats. For example, much was made of the total votes in the Texas senate primaries in which Democratic votes slightly outnumbered Republican votes for the first time in a very long time; the increase in voters vs. 2018 is also stark (see Letters #6).

• That said, the voting in Texas was ominous, as Joyce Vance discussed (see Letters #7). Many voters in Dallas and Williamson countries (which run blue) had had their voting location changed without notification — this effectively is voter suppression. One judge ruled to keep polls open later to assist, only to have that struck down by the state attorney general.

• After a favorable court ruling, pro-Democrat redistricting efforts in Virigina move forward and voting has now begun (see Letters #8).

• The Supreme Court intervenes to halt proposed pro-Democrat redistricting in New York (see Letters #9).

• Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) is leading an effort to prepare for Trump trying to seize control of elections under some pretext next fall (see Letters #10); there is no legal authority or mechanism for the President to do this; the framers of the Constitution deliberately and consciously left elections to the states.

4. Cruelty and crudity.

• Kristi Noem was fired. Was she fired because DHS was torturing and killing people under her leadership? More likely it was because she impugned that Trump knew and approved of the money she was bilking in phony contracts — or maybe she just didn’t give him a big enough cut (see Letters #11). This reminds that for Donald Trump, every follower and ally is expendable.

• Gas prices are up 10% in the first six days of war with Iran (see Letters #12); note the parallel with the steep increase when Russia invaded the Ukraine in 2022; if the US/Israeli-Iran war continues, the current price rise will only be the beginning with an even steeper rise to follow.

• Jobs are down. Since Trump’s ‘liberation day’ of tariffs almost a year ago, the US has a net loss of jobs. Economist Justin Wolfers calls it a ‘jobs recession’ in this 40-second clip.

• Over twenty states have sued the federal government over the latest attempt at imposing global tariffs (see Letters #13).

Pithy WarGaming Tip: Data Normalization (aka Context Matters)

Spring training brings baseball to mind. Baseball stats are lots of fun, and using them to compare players to see who is really “the best” is something I’ve spent much time on. For example, let’s compare two legendary pitching seasons.

Martinez had a great season in 1999 for sure, but his numbers don’t look nearly as impressive as Gibson’s, whose ERA (earned runs allowed per 9 innings) was just over 50% that of Martinez; plus Gibson had 13 complete game shutouts vs. just 1 for Martinez.

This is where data normalization comes in. What are the circumstances under which they pitched? That question begs for a very long and detailed answer, but in brief we can compare the leagues that they were in.

In the AL 1999, scoring (runs per game) was 50% higher than in the NL 1968. So which pitcher had the better season? In my view, there isn’t much to choose between them; these seasons are actually quite comparable. The context and the details matter a lot.

Think about this the next time you feel exhausted and dispirited by all that is going on around us in the world today. Remember: we are not in normal times. Everyday life is under deliberate and sustained assault by this MAGA regime for their own nasty purposes. Their goal is to make others throw up their hands in despair or weariness and say, ‘It doesn’t matter,’ or ‘I can’t take it anymore, I give up.’

Every day you plod forward, however tired or ineffective you feel, is a victory against that. We are going to be judged differently by history because of the extreme circumstances we’re living through. The United States has been in a civil conflict for at least 10 years, and it’s been getting more and more intense (thank heavens it’s not a shooting civil war, but it’s still really bad).

No one of us can fix everything. But the many of us can, by each of us acting in our own small way. Heather Cox Richardson said something along these lines last week during a live chat; see the two-minute clip below. Bottom line: if you’re heading into a road accident, keep your hands on the wheel and just keep driving.

Reconnaissance Mission

An article earlier this year by historian Timothy Snyder (January 31, 2026, see Letters #14) caught my eye, entitled, “Tolkien’s Dragons and Ours.” In part it reads:

[Tolkien’s 1938 lecture] gives us a bit of the moral theory behind The Hobbit, and of the books to follow. Dragons, explained Tolkien, assemble huge wealth, appreciating only its quantity, but taking no joy in any particular object. They are, however, enraged if any one piece were to go missing, and would burn the world with fury. They are obsessed to the point of paranoia with thieves. Their great intelligence is thus reduced to the cunning of protecting their hoard.

A dragon is not a fearful beast of a real or imaginary past, but a way of being in the world…. Dragons convey to us a way that people can be evil, here in our world: turning the quality of small joys into the quantity of a senseless hoard, mocking and destroying others who still see the good things of life.

It is the spirit of dragons, concluded Tolkien, that has survived, and it survives in us, or in some of us. A man can become a dragon through sheer greed. If we want to find a dragon, the place to look is the “vaults of the Bank of England.” And if “you want to see a dragon-heath just go out and look” at a landscape tortured by machines, a sky blackened with smoke.

Dragons might seem invulnerable. Their scaled skin is armored by jewels. Their eyes can entrance, and their speech is an enchantment of its own. Some of today’s dragons have gone so far as to claim Tolkien for their own. But, as Tolkien said in his lecture, citing “my friend Mr. Baggins,” every worm has a weak spot….

The dragons were, for Tolkien, “the final test of heroes.” It was not so much the strength and the sword that defines the hero, he said, but the courage and the comradeship. A hero sees a dragon for what it is, fearsome but fallible. A hero sees the dragon as the harbinger of one world, wants another, and steps forward.

Another Snyder article (February 25, 2026, a week before the attack on Iran; see Letters #15) declared Trump a failed fascist.

Fascism demands a major foreign war to kill one’s own people and thereby generate a reservoir of meaning that could be used to justify indefinite rule and further oppression, to make the world seem like an endless struggle and submission to hierarchy as the only kind of life….

To complete the fascist transition, Trump has to give the country a war it does not want, and win it, and transform the society. He has brought us to the doorstep of a major war with Iran: but in the State of the Union, speaking about war preparations, he was looking around hopelessly and waving his hands. He is happy to talk about war with Iran, and hope somehow that others will deliver it. But he cannot do it himself.

Americans do not want such a war. But that is not exactly Trump’s problem. Germans did not want a war with Poland in 1939, either. But Hitler fought one anyway, and won it quickly. Trump’s problem is that he does not know how to fight a war. And he flounders.

So what happens next in Iran policy?…. In the other scenario, we invade. That is the only escalation that could possibly work to advance the fascist transition. But it would not work. Trump is incompetent and so are his advisors. And war is hard. And Americans will not be patient. Perhaps they would change their minds if Trump had an explanation of what he is doing, but he doesn’t. Or if there were a rapid victory, which there won’t be….

Trump wants it both ways. He wants to be the warlord whom everyone fears, but he also wants to make lots of money and to have his corruption defined as peacemaking…. And so the state of Trump is that he is stuck. He is failing at fascism. He can break things, but he cannot make things. He can bluster, but he cannot triumph. He is tired, and every day is harder than the day before, and there are rivals in the wings, and elections coming.

Between now and November 2026 he has two moves: win a war, which he cannot; and suppress the vote, which he has telegraphed that he will try to do. This is a man, after all, who has already tried to steal an election. But he failed then. And the fact that he tried and failed once means that he should certainly fail again.

There is one more (obvious) trick which Trump can try, a combination of the two: he can claim that the very disaster of the war that he himself started in Iran (or elsewhere) means that there can be no elections because of the associated terrorist threats. But if journalists and judges and others are prepared for this gambit it will fail.

Thirdly, here is a view from Snyder about the story as it may unfold (taken from a live chat with historian Jan Stein, 3/7/26, see Letters #16).

What’s relevant to the November scenario is elite crack-up…. We are talking about in Washington an elite story of a relatively small group of people with decision-making power and reputational commitment, and I think the only way to do a vote-rigging scheme in November is to have very close, very loyal, devoted people around you who are willing to sacrifice their reputations or risk their reputations, risk everything, on the gamble that rigging this thing is going to work. And if Iran blows up or Iran creates the kind of consequences [that we were talking about], the risk from a Trump point of view is that you lose that elite coherence, that you have to fire some people, some people peel off, and in that atmosphere it becomes impossible for you to do the coordinated vote-rigging thing you were thinking about doing.

Bringing it all together:

• In an effort to become popular and line their pockets, the Trump regime has been using the US military to punch down, attacking some of the (very few) global regimes that are viewed even worse than Trump himself (Venezuela, Iran).

• Venezuela went as hoped; Maduro the leader was captured and the second in command kowtowed to Trump. Iran did not, and will not go the same way. Geography plays a role here. Venezuela is bordered east, south and west by inhospitable jungle, and to the north by ocean that the US Navy controls, and Venezuela has a small military. It was easy to isolate. Iran borders Russia overland (and is reportedly already receiving help from Russia), and has been preparing for and engaging in military conflict for decades.

• Approximately 40% of Iranians are ethnic minorities, so starting an Iranian civil war might be viewed in Washington, D.C. as a good thing. A US attempt to entice the Kurds to rise in rebellion, however, has already fallen flat; the Kurds know from Iraqii experience that US support is ephemeral at best.

• Watch out for this: there are signs that the Trump regime is setting up Israel as the ‘fall guy’ in this war with Iran. “Blaming the Jews” is the go-to move of every fascist, so this should be expected.

• Trump recently demanded an ‘unconditional surrender’ from Iran, asserting that he must have the right to choose the new leaders. This is a toothless demand.
  Aerial bombing alone has never forced an enemy to surrender; the only pertinent historical example of a modern military state surrendering from aerial attack might be Japan in World War II. Even then: (a) Japan had been at war for 9 years already and its resources and popluation were already greatly depleted; (b) Japan’s navy and air force had been demolished overseas in the prior 18 months of fighting, and a massive Allied invasion was imminent; (c) Japan’s homeland was being burned by horrific incendiary raids (dozens of major cities, which had been made principally of wood, were 50-70% destroyed); and (d) one atomic bomb had already been dropped. And all of that was not enough to cause Japan to surrender. It was the Russian invasion of Manchuria that took away Japan’s last hope for a mediated end to the war, combined with the second atomic bomb that caused Japan to surrender (one was viewed as a one-off; but two meant more were likely).

• The United States and Israel today have nowhere near that kind of leverage against Iran. It’s not even close. The US-Israeli air forces can pound away and kill Iranians at will. This war is already unpopular in the USA (it began as the most unpopular war ever with a lower approval rating that the last approval ratings when we left Iraq), and as a bitter winter turns to spring, disgust and opposition will grow. Meanwhile, Iran needs only to disrupt shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, through use of drones, sea mines, etc., to cause global economic shock waves. It likely can achieve that objective even while sustaining horrific destruction and heavy casualties, many of which already are and will continue to be civilians.

• Trump and his fellow billionaire dragons have enormous financial resources at their disposal, and they will use those resources in any way possible to retain power. Fascists never give up power willingly, as January 6, 2021 should have taught us. Snyder’s point that one use of the Iranian war will be for the Trump regime to make it an excuse to try to halt, undermine, seize control of, and otherwise corrupt the fall mid-term elections is a no-brainer; this should be expected. It is encouraging to see Snyder and many others calling this out now, and that there are many signs that preparations against this are already underway.

Taking Action

At the start of the second Trump administration, Heather Cox Richardson implored her listeners to do whatever it is each person does, as well as you possibly can do it, because anything and everything in support of a better world and democracy matters. Marc Elias has said that we all need to use our own ‘town square’ — whatever that community may be, and it is different for everyone — to raise awareness and to rally others to the defense of democracy and the law.

Last week the national Scouting America organization announced it would adhere to Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s demand that the Scouts remove inclusive policies and language, and that all scouts and adults register as their ‘sex at birth,’ which is a direct assault on the trans-gender community; Hegseth also opined that it would be nice to get rid of women completely from Scouting and restore Scouting to the military training force it ought to be (see Letters #17).

That is my family’s town square. We’ve been heavily involved in scouting for 10 years. So we started writing to and speaking with local scouting leadership; encouraging pushback and affirming values; and were to get published a letter to the editor in the local news paper as a call to action (see Letters #18).

It’s hard work, but it is good work. What is your town square? How can you make a difference there?

Lastly, remember to mark your calendar for No Kings 3, March 28th. Over 2,200 rally sites are already registered. It promises to be the largest one-day rally in US (and possibly world) history.

https://www.nokings.org/

Musing

A friend shared an essay about Merry and Pippin from The Lord of the Rings; I wish I could link to it, but please see Letters #19 for how you can read the essay via FaceBook by author Genny Harrison. It is one of the finest reflections on Tolkien I have ever read (and I’ve read many). Here is one quote from the essay regarding when Merry and Pippin were captured by Orcs and hauled off towards Saruman — action that was covered in ‘Frodo’s Journey’ in this space last week.

What follows in the books is where Tolkien does his most serious and least celebrated work. Merry and Pippin are not protagonists in these chapters. They are cargo. Beaten, captured, dragged across a ruined landscape by creatures who do not register them as people at all. Tolkien stays here longer than most readers remember. The hunger is specific. The fear is specific. In the darkness, Pippin wonders quietly whether they will ever be put into songs or tales. Merry says only that he wonders too. No reassurance comes. The possibility that they will simply disappear, unremembered, is left standing without consolation or comfort.

The writer goes on to discuss the Scouring of the Shire — omitted by the movies, but something this newsletter will discuss next fall when ‘Frodo’s Journey’ gets there (just in time for the mid-term elections). The author concludes the essay with:

There is no joy at the end of their story. Tolkien does not offer any, and I think he was right not to. What he offers instead is recognition. The specific, exhausted competence of people who were failed by every system that should have held, who paid a tax they never agreed to, and who came home to find the work was not finished.

It is not finished now either.

Below is my introduction to the essay when I reshared it. Tolkien fans are well-advised to find the full essay.

Frodo’s Journey: March 8, Shire Reckoning 1419

“The Taming of Sméagol” is a pivotal chapter in the story, in which Frodo and Sam capture Gollum and must decide what to do with him. They know that Gollum will do anything to regain the Ring and thus he is a mortal threat not just to themselves, but to all of Middle-earth. Frodo remembers his conversation with Gandalf about Gollum back in Bag End:

What a pity Bilbo did not stab the vile creature, when he had a chance!
Pity? It was Pity that stayed his hand. Pity, and Mercy; not to strike without need.
I do not feel any pity for Gollum. He deserves death.
Deserves death! I daresay that he does. Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give that to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends.

“Very well,” [Frodo] answered aloud, lowering his sword. “But still I am afraid. And yet, as you see, I will not touch the creature. For now that I see him, I do pity him.”

Frodo seeing Gollum changes everything. Frodo, alone in the world, knows the burden of the Ring that Gollum long endured and yet cannot help but crave again. When Gollum offers to swear to help ‘on the Precious,’ Frodo responds

“How dare you?” he said. “Think!
One Ring to rule them all and in the Darkness bind them.
”Would you commit your promise to that, Sméagol? It will hold you. But it is more treacherous than you are. It may twist your words. Beware!”…
For a moment it appeared to Sam that his master had grown and Gollum had shrunk: a tall stern shadow, a mighty lord who hid his brightness in grey cloud, and at his feet a little whining dog. Yet the two were in some way akin and not alien: they could reach one another’s minds.

The community that Frodo forges among himself, Sam, and Gollum, is essential to the success of his quest. Sam distrusts and fears Gollum, and is also jealous of Gollum’s peculiar bond with Frodo, but Sam’s love for Frodo carries the day. And for a time, Gollum appears to have been redeemed by Frodo. Frodo will need Sam’s stalwart support and optimism, just as he will need Gollum’s cunning knowledge of the region.

Under Gollum’s guidance, the trio pass through the Dead Marshes, approach and then flee from the Black Gate, and travel south towards Gollum’s promised secret entry point into Mordor. Faramir, brother of slain Boromir, captures them, and discovers that Frodo bears the One Ring, after a verbal gaffe from a tired-and-tipsy Sam, who pleads to Faramir to ‘show your quality.’ Faramir passes the test that his brother could not.

I am wise enough to know that there are some perils from which a man must flee. Sit at peace! And be comforted, Samwise. If you seem to have stumbled, think that it was fated to be so…. It may even help the master that you love. If shall turn to his good, if it is in my power.

Faramir releases them to follow Gollum’s guidance once more, but not before Frodo helps Faramir’s troops to seize Gollum (otherwise they would have killed Gollum); this causes the fragile hope of Gollum’s redemption to evaporate.

In the west, galvanized by Gandalf’s healing him of Saruman’s sorcery, Théoden, King of Rohan, leads the defense of Helm’s Deep where, with crucial help from the Ents of Fangorn Forest that had been roused by Merry and Pippin, the evil forces of Saruman are demolished in battle. Ents also destroy Saruman’s fortress at Isengard and imprison him in the tower of Orthanc. A Palantír is recovered there, which Pippin foolishly peeks at, revealing himself to Sauron. Aragorn then uses the Seeing Stone to challenge Sauron, setting in motion Sauron’s attack against Gondor. Gandalf, taking Pippin, races to help Gondor, while Aragorn, advised by a prophecy, along with Gimli and Legolas dares the Paths of the Dead in an attempt to rouse the spirit folk there to fulfill their oaths and to fight against Sauron. Merry is left in Théoden’s keeping while Rohan prepares to come to Gondor’s aid, which is called for when the beacons are lit.

Below is the lighting of the beacons of Gondor (which Pippin did not initiate; Denethor did that and Théoden was already preparing when the message was received — but the movie did have a stunning visual portrayal of this).

Featured Scifi Episode

Skipped for space, as will be the case for the next few weeks.

Battle Hymn of the Week

Mostly this week I’ve been thinking of all of the people needlessly in harm’s way. “Bring Him Home” from Les Miserables.

But I’ll reserve this one for Kristi Noem. RTZ (an offshoot from the band Boston), “Face The Music.”

Letters From the Front

1. Catholic Archbishop statement.

https://www.archchicago.org/statement/-/article/2026/03/08/statement-of-blase-j-cupich-archbishop-of-chicago-a-call-to-conscience

2. Attack on Ecuador.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-ecuador-narcoterrorism-operation-11637819

3. Proposed attack on Cuba.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/trump-cuba-iran-regime-change.html

4. Report of Epstein’s death.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article314966334.html

5. President Obama’s full speech at the Jesse Jackson life celebration.

6. Evan Grossman on the Texas primary vote.

Evan’s Substack

Tx Primary

I’m taking a break from my busy ski season to highlight a few trends from the recent Tx primaries, which suggest very high voter engagement, even compared with the 2018 and 2022 midterms (2018, during Trump v1 was the previous highest…

Read more

a month ago · 1 like · Evan Grossman

7. Joyce Vance on voter suppression in Texas.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

Last Night In Texas We Saw The Future: More Voter Suppression

On Tuesday in Texas, Democratic voters in Dallas and Williamson Counties, Texas, had their work cut out for them if they wanted to vote. They had to figure out, on the day of, where their polling places were. That’s because the local Republican parties backed out of the years-long tradition of holding joint primaries, and that information wasn’t communi…

Read more

a month ago · 2193 likes · 151 comments · Joyce Vance

8. Virginia redistricting vote update.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/virginia-congressional-redistricting-referendum-vote/

9. New York redistricting halted.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/politics/supreme-court-new-york-republican-congressional-district

10. Padilla prepares ‘privileged vote’ to respond to potential Trump election interference.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-03-03/padilla-preps-for-trump-trying-to-control-elections-via-emergency-order

11. Noem fired, for the wrong reason (Joyce Vance).

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

Fired, But For the Wrong Reason

Today, Donald Trump fired DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. It was the right thing to do, long overdue. But he did it for the wrong reasons…

Read more

a month ago · 2899 likes · 262 comments · Joyce Vance

12. Gas prices are up since the war with Iran, per Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-pump-prices-surge-iran-war-upends-global-energy-supply-2026-03-07/

13. State sue over global tariffs

https://apnews.com/article/global-15-tariffs-trump-lawsuit-2247451a7cbc9b8283c4574e3ee54537?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Mar05_2026_01:11PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

14. Timothy Snyder, “Tolkien’s Dragons and Ours”

Thinking about...

Tolkien’s Dragons and Ours

In the first month of a threatening year, in January of 1938, a great writer gathered himself to speak to children about dragons…

Read more

2 months ago · 2763 likes · 114 comments · Timothy Snyder

15. Timothy Snyder, “Fascist Failure”

Thinking about...

Fascist Failure

What is the state of Trump? He is failing at fascism. For Trump to succeed in is fascist transition, he needs a bloody, popular, victorious war. And that is out of his reach. The State of the Union was full of fascist atmospherics. But it was also blowhard exhaustion…

Read more

2 months ago · 4453 likes · 127 comments · Timothy Snyder

16. Timothy Snyder live chat with historian Janice Stein.

Thinking about...

Thinking Live on Iran with Janice Stein

Professor Janice Stein is a leading authority on negotiation and war as well as a regional specialist on the Middle East. Our conversation covers the origins of the Iran war, its meaning for the region and the world, and its possible trajectories. Throughout Professor Stein offers her characteristic wit and sharpness. I recommend that you have a liste…

Listen now

a month ago · 574 likes · 5 comments · Timothy Snyder and Janice Stein

17. Boston Globe, Hegseth deal with Scouting America.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/02/27/nation/pentagon-scouting-america-reach-deal-keep-ties-after-hegseths-anti-dei-push/

18. Letter to Editor by me in response.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/03/04/opinion/letters-scouting-america-pete-hegseth/?et_rid=1745397233&s_campaign=todaysheadlines:newsletter

19. Here’s where to find author Genny Harrison at FaceBook:

https://www.facebook.com/surfnukumoi

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2 Minute Offense

This week the Trump regime added a new front to their multi-pronged war by attacking Iran, joining their ongoing attacks on immigrants, voting, children, and lawfulness.

1. Attack on Iran. Massive US-Israeli aerial bombing attacks in Iran, with mounting Iranian counter-attacks in the region. Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei and other Iranian leaders were killed in so-called ‘decapitation’ strikes (see Letters #1). Questions raised:

• In June 2025 President Trump announced he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program after bombing then. Why attack now?

• Khamenei was 86 years old. Did the Trump regime imagine that there was no succession plan for him and that killing him would change something?

• Has assassinating a country’s leader ever made that country’s people more friendly to the assassin?

• Will U.S. Congress force a war powers vote against this illegal action (some Republicans are in favor of this; see Letters #2)?

Americans didn’t ask for and do not want this war (see Letters #3):

• Overall views of the war: New York Times poll: 21% Approval;
  Yougov.com poll: 35% Approval, 44% Disapproval; 22% Unsure

• Before President Trump’s military action against Iran, should he have secured Congressional approval?
  Yougov.com poll: 56% Yes, 25% No, 19% Unsure

• Who should decide the future leadership of Iran?
  Yougov.com poll: 70% The Iranian people, 8% The U.S. government, 22% Unsure

2. Attack on immigrants.

• A whistleblower reveals that ICE training is unlawfully teaching new recruits not to follow the Constitution (see Attack on lawfulness below).

• Boston federal judge rules that deportations are not allowed to any third-party country; “It’s not fine, nor is it legal,” Judge Brian Murphy wrote asserting that deportees should be deported back to their home country (see Letters #4).

• A nearly blind legal refugee from Myanmar, Nurul Amin Shah Alam, who did not speak English, was snatched by Border Patrol, then was later released but left in the Buffalo winter with his family not told where he was. He was released on 2/19/26, and found dead in the streets on 2/24/26 (see Letters #5).

3. Attack on voting.

• A Republican attempt to block Utah’s court-ordered redistricting was rejected, keeping the new map in place for now (see Letters #6); however, Utah Republicans are pushing forward a repeal measure that could have an effect after this year (see Letters #7).

• SAVE Act that would disenfranchise millions has been thwarted for now since apparently at least 4 Republican Senators are opposed (see Letters #8).

• Department of Justice sues 5 more states for voter rolls (see Letters #9).

• In some hopeful news, state election officials are already hard at work to plan ahead how to ensure next fall’s midterm elections are as free and fair as possible (see Letters #10).

According to interviews conducted by Democracy Docket with six Democratic secretaries of state, the potential nightmare scenarios being envisaged range from Trump sending armed federal agents to polling places, to efforts to disrupt mail-in voting via the U.S. Postal Service, to attempts to meddle with voting machines or to block election certification.

“Part of that’s a litigation response, part of that is a communications response, part of that is a purely administrative response,” Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon told Democracy Docket. “But we’re planning out what we would do if certain things happen.”

That the conversations are happening at all is a stark sign of how Trump’s relentless threats to undermine the vote have already changed election planning beyond recognition.

“It used to be that the things we’re saying out loud were unthinkable,” said Vermont Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas.

4. Attack on children.

• US strike on Iranian school kills 100+ children (see Letters #11).

• Scouting America agrees to demands from Secretary of Defense Hegseth requiring everyone to register ‘sex at birth’ and eliminating the ‘Citizenship’ badge, a major blow to transgender children and the adults who support them; Hegseth declares his hope to remove girls and women completely from Scouting America in the future so that the organization serves strictly as a military training ground for young men (see Letters #12).

• Former British ambassabor Peter Mandelson arrested in probe to Epstein ties (see Letters #13).

• Senator Wyden (D-OR) is pursuing the money in the Epstein files. Last week he announced that there was a Drug Enforcement Agency investigation from 2010-2015 regarding Epstein’s potential involvement in illegal wire transfers, drug and prostitution, including possible cover-up for drug cartels; the unit performing this investigation was dismantled during the first Trump presidency (see Letters #14).

• The Miami Herald published a detailed report on how Epstein subverted Florida’s legal system for his own benefit (see Letters #15).

• Some Republican Senators are calling for the full release of the Epstein files (see Letters #16). “Calling for” is much different than “voting for” so at this point these calls are theater only, but likely also are an acknowledgement that these Senators are hearing from their constituents and are trying to appease them without actually doing anything.

• Heather Cox Richardson provided a great summary of Epstein status as of 2/27/26, focusing on Wyden’s efforts to follow the money, as well as last week’s Congressional testimony from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton.

  Letters from an American

  February 27, 2026

  On Monday, February 23, Daniel Ruetenik, Pat Milton, and Cara Tabachnick of CBS News reported a newly uncovered document in the Epstein files shows that the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) was running an investigation of Jeffrey Epstein and fourteen other people for drug trafficking, prostitution, and money laundering…

  Read more

  a month ago · 8348 likes · 652 comments · Heather Cox Richardson

5. Attack on lawfulness.

• Judge Cannon buries the evidence for Trump regarding the stolen documents case (see link to Joyce Vance’s article, and an outtake from it, below).

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

If DOJ Is Trump's Law Firm, Aileen Cannon Is His Judge

South District of Florida federal Judge Aileen Cannon has history with Donald Trump. He appointed her to the bench in May 2020. She was confirmed that November. Then came the June 2023 indictment of Trump by federal prosecutors. It landed on her desk…

Read more

2 months ago · 888 likes · 87 comments · Joyce Vance

• Last week Susan Rice (former US Ambassador to the UN) made some remarks that were reported by Marc Elias (see Letters #17);

Last week, Rice told Preet Bharara on his podcast that “it’s not going to end well” for “the corporate interests, the law firms, the universities, [and] the media” that bend the knee to Trump.

“If these corporations think that the Democrats, when they come back into power, are going to play by the old rules and say, ‘Oh, never mind — we’ll forgive you for all the people you fired, all the policies and principles you violated, all the laws you’ve skirted,’” she added, “I think they’ve got another thing coming.”

Rice is not only precise but, in this instance, entirely correct. Democrats have no intention of playing by the old rules. Indeed, those rules no longer exist….

Rice is also right to note that, when it comes to private-sector capitulation and collaboration, Democratic memories will be long. As she said, there will be no “forgive and forget.”

• Anthropic, an AI company that has created Claude, one of if not the best AI models, was attacked last week by Secretary of Defense Hegseth who demanded that Anthropic yield unfettered use of Claude. Anthropic refused to change two crucial policies that their work cannot be used (1) for mass domestic surveillance of Americans, nor (2) for fully automous weapons (to avoid the computer-destroys-the-world that tons of movies like “War Games” have long foreseen; see Letters #18). Hegseth has amplified the pressure by declaring Anthropic a “supply chain risk,” making sure the military could not use Anthropic at all (see Letters #20) — a move that seems to undermine his prior goal.

• A whistleblower revealed that ICE has been issuing secret orders teaching new cadets to violate the Constitution.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Living with the Consequences

Apologies for the repeat here, but the thing I love most about the new 1914-1954 massive board game I’ve designed (“Lightning Strikes,” hopefully will be published by next year) is that, unlike every other big wargame, players have to live with the consequences of going to war even after a war is over, win or lose, because the game continues regardless of a war’s outcome. That’s real life titrated into the gaming experience, and to be honest, I’m not sure if gamers are going to like it. It certainly puts a new perspective on whether or not you want your country to go to war.

One thing I am convinced about, however, is that the gung-ho wargamers presently occupying Washington, D.C., would hate that idea, as I don’t think any of them think they’re going to have to live with any consequences at all from their actions.

We shall see.

Reconnaissance Mission

A recent poll raised numerous concerns about President Trump’s age (see Letters #19). Here are a few outtakes:

• 61% of Americans (including 30% of Republicans) agree that Trump has become “become erratic with age.”

• 32% of Americans are “very confident” Trump has the mental fitness for the job (down from 39% a year ago; Republicans dropped 10%).

• 28% of Americans are “very confident” Trump has the physical fitness for the job (down from 35% last year; Republicans dropped 10%).

While these numbers are better than Biden’s in the last year of his presidency, they don’t bode well for someone just completing the first year of his presidency.

So much of what the current regime does is beyond the pale. I am a big fan of “Hogan’s Heroes,” the story of lovable and plucky Allied soldiers who willingly are ‘stationed’ in a prisoner of war camp in Nazi Germany during World War II. Their mission is to sabotage, harass, and support efforts that resist the Nazi regime. It’s a black comedy, making fun of complicit German soldiers, like the big teddy bear-ish Sergeant Schultz, who speaks his famous and oft-repeated line “I know nothing!” as he looks the other way while the heroes do their thing. Schultz is a stand-in for German citizens who looked the other way and let the Nazi regime perform its brutality, declaring after the war they knew nothing about it.

“Hogan’s Heroes” made it to television in the 1960s, twenty years on from the real-life horrors of Nazi Germany and World War II. I’m confident that one day someone is going to make a black comedy about this Trump administration starring the Little Fuhrer who can’t stop talking and just wants to be fear, or loved, he can’t make up his mind; the incompetent leader of Investigations; the conniving Vice Fuhrer, always angling to become next in succession; the dazzling but cruel Head of Justice; and the Shadow Man, pulling all of their strings behind the curtain. It will be shocking, viciously hilarious, and wildly successful (and painful for us who had to live through it).

The below will be key to a hit episode. We’ll have to tell our fellow viewers “No really, Trump really posted this, not kidding!” because no one will believe that this could possibly have really happened.

Note: Like its mother country Denmark and most other European countries, Greenland offers universal health care that makes the American for-profit system look ridiculously expensive by contrast.

Taking Action

Last year Paramount took over CBS and has systematically destroyed its ability to report news. Now Paramount is closing in on taking over Warner Brothers, which owns CNN, the leading American cable TV news station. I urge anyone to rethink willingly giving your money to Paramount. Lord knows I miss our cancelled subscription for loss of the “Star Trek” franchise, but Paramount owner Larry Ellison is totally on MAGA’s side. Hopefully, as Democratic Senators Gallego and Murphy have vowed, when Democrats regain power they will move swiftly to break up these giant media conglomerates that are stifling both free enterprise and the free flow of information. Until then, don’t give MAGA your cash.

Lastly, President Joe Biden has a few encouraging words for us from a speech in South Carolina last week.

“This is no time to give up. It’s time to get up, and continue to fight! To be the nation we know we can be!”

Musing

A quick game of “What If?” comparing corporate taxes and wages from the 1960s to the present that highlights our country’s wealth disparity problem.

Robert Reich

But what did the typical worker actually earn in 2024?

The typical worker’s earnings went up to $36.49 an hour.

Good news, right? Who wants to celebrate?

Not so fast. Back to my original question: If worker pay had climbed as much as CEO pay since the late 1960s, what would the typical worker earn today?

Ready for this? $432. Per hour.

Robert Reich

What if the typical worker’s pay had risen like CEO salaries?

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2 months ago · 2264 likes · 253 comments · Robert Reich and Inequality Media

Frodo’s Journey: March 1, Shire Reckoning 1419

The Fellowship minus Gandalf were last seen taking elven boats down the Anduin. Note that every month, including February, has 30 days in the Shire calendar, so last week covers 9 days of story action in order to synchronize calendars.

The Fellowship’s boats landed at Parth Galen and were attacked by Orcs, and Boromir tried to seize the Ring from Frodo; Frodo escaped and, along with Sam, crossed the river eastwards to head for Mordor. After Boromir died defending them, Merry and Pippin were captured by Orcs and hauled off westwards towards Saruman.

Aragorn, Gimli, and Legolas are left with an impossible choice: search for their two Hobbit friends heading into deadly peril in the east in pursuit of the true mission to destroy the Ring, or follow their two captured Hobbit friends heading west to certain death.

“Let me think!” said Aragorn. “And now may I make a right choice, and change the evil fate of this unhappy day!” He stood silent for a moment. “I will follow the Orcs,” he said at last. “I would have guided Frodo to Mordor and gone with him to the end; but if I seek him now in the wilderness, I must abandon the captives to torment and death. My heart speaks clearly at last: the fate of the Bearer is in my hands no longer. The Company has played its part. Yet we that remain cannot forsake our companions while we have strength left. Come! We will go now.

For several days, Frodo and Sam struggle through the slag-hills of the Emyn Muil east of the Great River. As they puzzle how to get down a very steep cliff, Frodo wishes that they had some rope, leading to this memoral ramble by Sam.

“Rope!” cried Sam, talking wildly to himself in his excitement and relief. “Well if I don’t deserve to be hung on the end of one as a warning to numbskulls! You’re nowt but a ninnyhammer, Sam Gamgee: that’s what the Gaffer said to me often enough, it being a word of his. Rope!”

They then use the rope Sam had forgotten he had to scale down the cliff and escape the hills. Soon they realize that they’re being followed.

Back across the river, the Three Hunters (Aragorn, Legolas, and Gimli) chase the Orcs through the desolate eastern lands of the kingdom of Rohan, where they finally run into Éomer and a large contingent of Riders of Rohan, who are returning from destroying that very band of Orcs — and they are certain that there were no halflings with the Orcs. After Gimli and Éomer almost come to blows, Aragorn has a private word with Éomer to explain what they’re doing and why; Éomer marvels at their tale, with stories of elves, little folk, and magic swords. “How shall a man judge what to do in such times?” he wonders. Aragorn responds with moral clarity:

“As he ever has judged,” said Aragorn. “Good and ill have not changed since yesteryear; nor are they one thing among Elves and Dwarves and another among Men. It is a man’s part to discern them as much in the Golden Wood as in his own house.”

With the help of horses from Éomer, they set off towards Fangorn Forest to search for the missing Hobbits, who (having luckily escaped the Orcs during the battle) are by then safely with Treebeard, the Ent; it will take an “Entmoot” to try to decide what to do about the news that Merry and Pippin have provided.

Thwarted at finding the Hobbits, instead they run into an old man garbed in grey, but with a glint of white; they fear it is Saruman, and Gimli tries to use his axe to “make a dint in your hat that even a wizard will find it hard to deal with!”

The old man was too quick for him. He sprang to his feet and leaped to the top of a large rock. There he stood, grown suddenly tall, towering over them. His hood and his grey rags were flung away. His white garments shone. He lifted up his staff, and Gimli’s axe leaped from his grasp and fell ringing to the ground. The sword of Aragorn, stiff in his motionless hand, blazed with a sudden fire. Legolas gave a great shout and shot an arrow high into the air; it vanished in a flash of flame.

“Mithrandir!” he cried. “Mithrandir!”….

At last Aragorn stirred. “Gandalf!” he said. “Beyond all hope you return to us in our need! What veil was over my sight? Gandalf!”

There are several instances in The Lord of The Rings where some beloved character is thought to be dead, but turns up alive after all. This was an example of what Tolkien called an “eucatastrope,” an unexpected good turn of events that restores hope through emotional experience to the reader. Gandalf’s return is one of the most striking of these moment in the story that help us readers to feel a fresh sense of hope.

Featured Scifi Episode (omitted for space)

Battle Hymn of the Week

Veteran Laura Jedeed’s personal response to war with Iran (“This Is All So Goddamn Unnecessary”) is spot on. Read the whole article at the link below; here is one paragraph among many gems.

We have more in common with the people of Iran than we do with the ghouls dropping bombs on them. People everywhere mostly just want to live in peace. They want to raise a family, they want to earn reasonable pay for an honest day's work, they want to go on vacation once in a while. Brutalize them long enough and they become brutes, yes. When you take those simple needs away, people become violent and hopeless. And the people with power take those little things away, again and again, for all of history….

And I don’t know why that peace feels so out of reach, when that’s all damn near everybody wants.

Firewalled Media

This Is All So Goddamn Unnecessary

(writing this on my phone on a train so no audio today; I'll drop a recording tomorrow…

Read more

a month ago · 70 likes · 11 comments · Laura Jedeed

That article reminded me of the famous 1960s Vietnam protest song by Credence Clearwater Revival, “Fortunate Son.” Singer John Fogarty was himself a Vietnam veteran, and remains a big supporter of veterans.

Yeah-yeah, some folks inherit star-spangled eyes
Hoo, they send you down to war, Lord
And when you ask ‘em, “How much should we give?”
Hoo, they only answer, “More, more, more, more”

Letters From the Front

1. Wikipedia on the killing of Khamenei

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Ali_Khamenei

2. Possible war powers vote

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/democrats-force-vote-limit-trump-iran-strikes-republicans-rcna261120?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

3. Polls about Iran war.

New York Times poll cited here:

Yougov.com polls:

https://yougov.com/en-us/daily-results/20260228-e3449-1

4. Federal judge rules against third-party country deportations.

https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2026-02-25/mass-judge-rules-against-trump-administration-policy-for-third-country-deportations

5. Legal refugee left to die in Buffalo.

https://apnews.com/article/buffalo-new-york-refugee-death-b2d29a7bdfaa0ffd99d4c6ba7e85e8a6

6. Utah redistricting update.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/23/utah-redistricting-court-ruling-2026-midterms-00793377

7. Utah repeal attempt on redistricting.

https://vote.utah.gov/repeal-of-the-independent-redistricting-commission-and-standards-act-direct-initiative-list-of-signers/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--HS66nCfI05lF1u12Et6zMNEZo8iMrqML6gcDu8fVA1Mrcw2hOZ7jiTrN55Rb-0Eh_lZr3N6JKRc-SQ34yBoMmwolpRw&_hsmi=405973786&utm_content=405973786&utm_source=hs_email

8. Joyce Vance update on SAVE Act and more.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

The SAVE Act Is Dead, Fulton County Is Fighting Back; So, Of Course, Trump Wants To Seize Control Of The Election

The SAVE Act appears to be dead, at least for now…

Read more

2 months ago · 3538 likes · 225 comments · Joyce Vance

9. DOJ sues 5 more states for voter rolls.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-doj-expands-voter-roll-crusade-sues-five-more-states/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--lwKUP60M-4HE7V7SGl5NZ8IL9GgUYLVdmtys_6V0tFRLsKLYoeMEnZcMrPt-Z9z7sWQgxhNU-sHNjbkZtXLFOa9OQAw&_hsmi=405976204&utm_content=405976204&utm_source=hs_email

10. State election officials planning ahead as best they can to ensure free and fair elections next fall.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/election-chiefs-are-huddling-to-plan-responses-to-trumps-interference/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_GLnIo5KtTiafGr0ybZcyDKJI3N4G54rOYAk7WAqOs5bAdPp5R1aoCWNtd3j38S64YPbjAxyhbH1drL565Xx3lpupNBQ&_hsmi=405759414&utm_content=405759414&utm_source=hs_email

11. US strike in Iran kills 100+ schoolchildren.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-01/iran-school-children-killed-strikes-us-israel-hundred-dead/106402152

12. Scouting America agrees to Hegseth demands.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/02/27/nation/pentagon-scouting-america-reach-deal-keep-ties-after-hegseths-anti-dei-push/

13. Mandelson arrested in UK.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/british-police-arrest-former-ambassador-to-the-u-s-peter-mandelson-in-probe-into-epstein-ties

14. Sen. Wyden following the money finds 2010-2015 DEA investigation

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-dea-drug-trafficking-investigation-senator-wyden/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=911961965

and also

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5757891-wyden-presses-dea-epstein-probe/

15. Miami Herald report on how Epstein manipulated the Florida legal system.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article314546750.html?giftCode=26f69782450aec81f18a0f0a617b1a2090b2db0f19c4fbc083e7061229df94f8

16. Republican Senators calling for full release of Epstein files.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5757945-trump-epstein-files-release/

17. Democracy Docket reporting on Susan Rice’s remarks.

https://member.democracydocket.com/1susan-rice-is-right.-now-netflix-must-choose-0?utm_campaign=13199957-Premium%2520Content%2520Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--jF2dsYDuxaONuNvZ38-iUafRXOALswhGatGyNfsq3Cpyh1cAzWxF5bU7VTPF6Hv6lpjJMQfD0NNPaeWbcgxUAOOOIZw&_hsmi=405058548&utm_content=405058548&utm_source=hs_email

18. Anthropic response to Hegseth.

https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war

19. Hegseth fires back at Anthropic.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-declares-anthropic-supply-chain-risk/

20. Article based on Reuters and Pew polls about Trump’s age.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/26/politics/donald-trump-mental-fitness-polls

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2 Minute Offense

1. “Politics is Downstream from Culture.” At the level of national reactions to MAGA, there have been a few stages so far: 1. Shock & Fear; 2. Indecision & Bewilderment; and most recently 3. Rejection & Defiance. This is not the trajectory MAGA wanted. We’re seeing even more brewing culturally, as last week shows.

• The amazing dance performed on the Mall in Washington, D. C. (see video above).

• Classic Rock is all in:
  (a) Bruce Springsteen announced a new 2026 tour “Land of Hope and Dreams” that will kick-off in Minneapolis on 3/31/26 (see Letters #1);
  (b) U2 released a 6-song EP that the band described as “an immediate response to current events and inspired by the many extraordinary and courageous people fighting on the frontlines of freedom” (see Letters #2);
  (c) Nils Lofgren released a new song, “No Kings No Hate No Fear” (see Letters #3).

• Young people are joining the conflict against MAGA:
  (a) High school students, in both red and blue states around the country, have been walking out of class to protest ICE (see two examples in Letters #4).
  (b) Saw a striking short clip of a MAGA supporter taunting some teenagers, who responded vigorously and immediately (won’t share the link for this one since it’s a minor).

• Opposition politicians are using new language that articulates faith, love, and renewal.
  (a) The Colbert-Talarico interview, banned but never more popular; see the Musing section below for more;
  (b) A recent Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) speech echoing Biblical themes and language (see Letters #5);
  (c) Governor J. B. Pritzger’s (D-IL) speech talking about love as the glue that binds us to one another, and to our country, citing many examples of citizens living their belief in one another during this crisis (see Letters #6).

2. Accountability & the Epstein files. This is like a lava flow, moving slowly downhill to the lowest ground and destroying everything in its path.

• South Korea’s ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol receives life in prison for his attempted insurrection in December 2024 (see Letters #7). This is not Epstein-related; it is accountability finding a major political figure for his transgression.

• Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested. Last arrest of British royalty was in 1647 during the English Civil War. This arrest was for allegedly providing non-public government information to Epstein (see Letters #8). The question is likely not whether he’s guilty — stripping away of his Prince title last year and the immediate statement from the King that the law must prevail suggests strongly that they already knows he’s guilty — the big question is who will he give up?

• New Mexico is reopening investigations about an Epstein ranch in that state; an initial report is due by the end of July this year (see Letters #9).

• Epstein is now being allegedly described as Putin’s wealth manager (see Letters #10).

3. Economic Chaos.

• The US Supreme Court rejects the Trump administration’s use of tariffs in a 6-3 ruling (see Letters #11). At least $150B is supposed to be refunded to whoever paid it; this ought to be consumers to a large degree but making that happen seems unlikely. This takes away a big point of leverage that the Trump regime used extensively (Trump has already announced new tariff policies that may also be on uncertain legal ground).

• US deficit added $2.25 trillion in debt since Trump took office last year (see Letters #12); the national debt now stands at $38.4 trillion.

• Slow fourth quarter 2025 growth of 1.4%, much lower than predicted (see Letters #13). Also, fewer than 200,000 jobs were created in 2025, the lowest since COVID.

4. Redistricting update.

• VA redisctricing vote has been blocked, for now (see Letters #14).

• Wanted to mention Kate Barr running for Congress in Virginia as a Republican, even though she’s obviously not sympathetic to Republican agenda (and ran as a Democract in 2024). The Republican Party has repudiated her campaign, but can’t stop it (see Letters #15).

5. International weakness.

• The USA considers forming its own world health organization, sort of like the World Health Organization only at triple the cost and at a fraction of the benefit (see Letters #16).

• The USA continued threats of military action against Iran, demanding that it give up its nuclear ambitions … 8 months after declaring those ambitions destroyed by a prior US military strike (see Letters #17).

• Munich Security Conference sees European leaders looking to one another to forge new plans — not the USA (see Letters #18).

• President Trump’s so-called Board of Peace had its first meeting; the countries who attended were a mix of authoritarians and those desperate to kowtow to Trump; historical US allies refused to show (see Letters #19). The Board’s charter actually says that Trump is chairman for life (see Letters #20).

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Self-Defeating Objectives

One of the lessons one learns quickly when playing a wargame against an experienced opponent is that your plan for victory needs to be fully aligned. By that I mean all aspects of what you are doing need to be in service to your primary objective. If you are playing Japan in a World War II game and your goal is to conquer the colonial empires of the British, French, and Americans, then your military, economic, and diplomatic actions all need to work together in support that goal. Attacking Russian Pacific possessions or invading China, while potentially reasonable ideas on their own, would be a terrible distraction to your forces and almost certain mean that your primary goal would not be achieved.

The example above may seem obvious, but players don’t always recognize this truth. Early in my gaming career, I become obssessed with the idea of having my World War II German army invade Russia in the winter. Why? Well, partly because it wouldn’t be expected, but mostly because the swamps on the western flank of the USSR (Pripet Marshes) and the swamps and lakes surrounding the northern strongpoint of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) would both be easier to attack when frozen over. Great idea, right? Attack your opponent where and when it isn’t expected. When I finally got a chance to try it, things didn’t go quite as planned. The surprise attack against Leningrad (partly from my Finnish allies) was good though it failed to secure the city; the main thrust of the panzers did make initial progress through the frozen-over Pripet Marshes. However, it all fell apart when there was an early spring thaw. I got the particular joy of watching my forces on those frozen lakes literally sink to the bottom, and the rest of the armies in the swamps took half a year to extricate themselves. By then, the overall strategic invasion of the USSR was a complete failure. In hindsight, I admitted that this wasn’t just bad luck, though there was some of that. The problem was that I had set for myself a self-defeating objective — even if the initial attacks had been successful, the fact that my forces were attacking the USSR in the winter was simply a bad idea, regardless of any small tactical gain that was initially achieved.

I reflected last week that the behavior of President Trump suggests that he has adopted self-defeating objectives. On the one hand, he wants total power over all institutions and citizens in the USA in order to secure and control his own fate. On the other hand, he also wants to be seen as a great leader who does historically great things and gains widespread praise and approval. These two objectives are are inherently opposed to one another. Subjugated peoples (if the first objective were to be achieved) are never going to be grateful and laudatory; gaining widespread approval (if the second objective were to be achieved) necessitates lifting up others and making their lives more liberated and fulfilling. No matter what happens, President Trump is going to be perpetually disappointed.

Reconnaissance Mission

Recently Erika Chenoweth provided updated data on protests against the Trump administration (via a BlueSky post that unfortunately can’t be shared). While the two No Kings protests (6/14/25, 10/18/25) are among the two largest single-day protests ever, more interesting is that the quantity of protest actions has only been escalating since (even during the winter). The graph below compares protests in the first year of the first and second Trump administrations, the latter being about 4x as many as the former.

Chenoweth writes:

The movement is extraordinarily disciplined, despite escalatory rhetoric, threats, & violence against the movement, immigrants, and observers. Over 99% of reported protests featured no arrests, 99.8% had no participant injuries or property damage, and 99.9% reported no injuries to law enforcement. These are tiny fractions for a movement of this historic size and geographic dispersion. This discipline is part of why clear instances of lawless brutality by govt authorities tend to backfire.

Then last week Chenoweth had a live chat (2/18/26) interviewing Steven Levitsky (co-author of the book “How Democracies Die” with Daniel Ziblatt). Below are my condensed outtakes from the conversation (see Letters #21 below for the full hour).

Levistky’s thoughts about the last 2 months (since their last chat):

• When a government weakens it can become less ambitious and take fewer risks or it can radicalize. It is clear that radicalizing is the dominant response in the Trump administration. This is not a government we can expect will crawl back in its shell when it loses. It is going to continue to make authoritarian attempts and try to to destabilize its opponents.

• The December optimism I felt is still at base there; the government is continuing to lose support, and society is continuing to react; the government will continue to strike out in increasingly radical ways.

• This suggests a lot of uncertainty ahead. The government will continue to throw punches at our institituions and society; it may be that we have an improved ability to deflect them and prevent those punches from landing, but the punches are going to come.

On Minneapolis in particular, Chenoweth noted that:

• Minneapolis showed mass and diverse participation, using varying methods that impose costs on those trying to oppress.

• Loyalty shifts among local pillars of power definitely occurred, even among some Republican leaders in the state; there was a sense that it became attractive to be a business that stood against ICE.

• There was discipline and resilience when oppression escalated; training in de-escalation and non-violence, and legally filming and documenting what the government was doing was essential.

• The opposition must find ways to create alternative institutions and mutual aid networks to support one another, and there were indeed many examples of neighbors organizing networks and preparing to help each other wherever needed in Minneapolis.

Levistky on whether the lessons of Minneapolis could being applied elsewhere?

• We saw in Minneapolis that repression backfires because people really don’t like it. How openly this government embraces paramilitary violence is remarkable, frightening, and without precedent in the post-WW2 world. They are unapologetically violent, will engage in cover-ups and keep going on. Most repressors try to hide their repression; this government was filming it and diffusing it on social media. It was awful, and it backfired, generating resistance in both Minneapolis and around the country.

• Minneapolis ended up being a very poor location to launch this pilot effort; it is an unusually well-organized city with high levels of social capital; not to say such elements wouldnt emerge elsewhere but it appears the administration and ICE didn’t understand what was it messing with; it was a city particularly well-equipped to respond in the way described. Yes this will teach lessons for other cities around the country.

Which methods of resistance are the most decisive in pushing back against democractic backsliding? Levitsky:

• The methods often change, and we rarely if ever know in advance which methods are going to work. It almost always is a matter of experimentation and innovation. The strategies that work might not have been invented in prior cases.

• The most important thing is that people participate. It is also really helpful to engage in activity that is meaningful to you because you’re more likely to sustain it and to engage with others.

• Another lesson from Minneapolis is democratic solidarity, where we recognize that other citizens may face different problems than us, but people respond as teammates finding new ways to help one another.

• We have to adapt strategies. The whistle blowing is an example; no one knew in advance if that was going to matter, but it did.

Where are the key pillars of society now? Levitsky:

• We have seen movement. It is now incontrovertible that the greatest movement has been from the citizens with least power and privilege; they have been the most willing to get out and act. Those who are the most vulnerable and with the most to lose — including their lives — have been the most bold for democracy. This does influence, more gradually and indirectly, the more powerful actors. Media is beginning to pay more attention. Protests have continued high and they are starting to get more attention. Primaries are now happening, and Democratic candidates have to compete for votes from voters who are the most engaged in resistance; politicians are finding they have to be engaged, even if that is not something that they naturally have done in the past, as a result there are more Democratic politicians really engaging the threat. Gradually we are seeing more businesses, though it less clear that elites are being pulled from below into more aggressive resistance.

In historical cases, lack of coordination among opposition groups is often a big problem. How has the USA been in this regard? Levitsky:

• The USA is in much, much better situation than any other backsliding situation that I know. The Democratic party’s brand in 2025 was not in good shape, but compared to Turkey or Hungary it is in much, much better shape, and does not suffer from multiple, fragmented, opposition parties.

• The defense of democracy has to happen on multiple fronts. The ballot box continues to be the principle avenue; at the end of the day winning elections in ‘26 and ‘28 is an indepensible part of this opposition. But other areas are also essential. Inevitably there will be division of labor. Some politicians will figure out how to win elections; their job is to figure out how to motivate voters. Activists for issues (such as voting rights, etc.) should also be out there defending rights and defending democracy in the ways that they know. Full-time defense of human beings and rights are needed; legal defense is imperative; all of these areas and more are all essential.

Chenoweth:

• An opposition needs to (1) create conditions for defeating the regime; (2) then make it happen; and (3) then enforce the result, the latter often through litigation strategies.

What does it mean that a city like Minneapolis has “high social capital?” Levitsky:

• That refers to work of Robert Putnam (Making Democracy Work; Bowling Alone). He refers to social trust, which is the degree to which I know my neighbors, cooperate with them, and trust that they will do the right thing. Putnam hypothesized that this was a product of civic society; the more we participate in civic groups (doesn’t matter what those are) the more likely communites get to know one another, get used to working with one another, and trust each other.

• Minneapolis is thought to be high in this area; the Deep South by contrast is thought to be low.

Chenoweth:

• There are different types of social capital: ‘highly bonded’ and ‘bridging.’ Our civic society is quite robust but highly-bonded; that means we tend to hang out with people like ourselves. Bridging social capital is where people come together in apolitical spaces about a common aim not tied to one’s identity; these could be location-based or activity-based (they used to be bowling leagues, to get back to Putnam). Identifying a shared concern about community well-being is an area where the USA is not as high in many communities. Pro-democracy movements need to tap into communities in both ways.

Are the No Kings single-day protests useful, and how could they be more effective?

• Chenoweth: It is equally dangerous to under- and to over-estimate these protests. We shouldn’t under-estimate because it is incredibly important to recognize how many people are willing to give up their time to make common demands; this helps them to tap into networks to engage in more sustained actions; this allows for innovations around concerns, demands, and issues that can help inform the movement’s agenda. Those are all important. But we shouldn’t over-estimate them either: protests on their own have a tough time putting the amount of pressure required to move societal pillars into the pro-democracy camp. Doing anything is very important; find a political home where you can sustain your engagement to maximize the impact of one’s advocacy. As for what the protests should be articluating, the division of labor that Levitsky mentioned comes into play, articulating both negative (being against something) and positive (being for something) demands. Worth noting that the former tends to unite, but the latter tend to divide.

• Levitsky: The impact of No Kings has been modest but important. In the first half of 2025 we looked to elites to resist and they didn’t. No Kings was really important to signal that there were many Americans opposed and willing to mobilize. Judges, media editors, and politicians paid attention. It also creates multiple opportunities for engagement for participants to remain engaged, and maybe bring more friends the next time. No Kings was a simple, single effective message. There’s a tendency to pile on specific causes, but these tend not only to divide, but to dilute the message and identity. No Kings did its messaging quite well.

• Chenoweth: There is research that shows very strong correlation between physically participating in a protest, and then recognizing aligned issues in every day life later on, thanks to raised political awareness as well as the raised collective consciousness of the country.

Q: Corporations have been reluctant to get involved. How do we get businesses more involved? When do businesses tend to shift in their oreintation? Levistky:

• Often there is a distinction to be made between local businesses and larger companies. For example in Boston as the city began to prepare for a possible ICE assault, Boston found much more receptivity among local, small businesses — likely because the business owner is a member of the community. Once you rise above the local level, big businesses are going to follow the money, not democracy.

• One problem that we have is that this Trump administration is making really clear to the largest firms that they have to play ball with the federal government and Donald Trump personally (for example Jeff Bezos′ dismantling of the Washington Post). This has made turning big businesses much more difficult. We have to make it costly for companies to do business with the government. Most such attempts fail historically. But we have an opportunity with a larger high−capital group of people whose purchasing matters more widely than many other countrie studied.

• Moral persuasion may work on the local level; monetary persuasion is needed for big businesses.

Taking Action

Per the Chenoweth-Levitsky chat, so-called ‘bridging’ activities that bring together a wide array of people into communities that are based on local affairs or activities (and not just one’s own interests or politics) can be a powerful way to make a difference.

Musing

Jimmy Carter’s rhetoric integrated his idea of faith into his politics. The Rev. Jesse Jackson (may he rest in peace) offered his own brand of inspiration and hope when he ran for President in the 1980s. Few politicians have caught my ear in a similar way since (although Barack Obama did to a degree). A speech a few years ago from Mallory McMorrow (now running for an open Senate seat in MI) reminded me that it is possible to fuse political realism together with a backbone of belief.

This past week an interview by Stephen Colbert with James Talarico, who is running in the Democratic primary for the open Senate seat in Texas, was blocked by the FCC. The reason was allegedly that the ‘equal time’ clause would be violated because Talarico’s primary opponent Rep. Jasmine Crockett would be harmed; in fact that standard has never been applied to television interviews before; the FCC backpedaled and denied they forced anything, but Colbert brought the receipts (see Letters #21).

The result was that the interview was released on YouTube, where it has had over 8.6 million views, likely far more views and attention than if the interview had simply happened as planned.

The middle 5 minutes of the 15 minute clip (see below) was a refreshing two-way conversation about how religion and politics should and should not intersect. Talarico noted:

That boundary between the church and state doesn’t just benefit our democracy, though it certainly does. But it also benefits the church because when the church gets too cozy with political power it loses its prophetic voice, its ability to speak truth to power, its ability to imagine a completely different world. And so this separation between church and state is something that we have to safeguard. It’s something we have to fight for, and I think we need someone in the US Senate who is going to confront Christian nationalism and tell the truth, which is that there is nothing Christian about Christian nationalism. It is the worship of power in the name of Christ, and it is a betrayal of Jesus of Nazareth.

This cuts to the heart of why MAGA fears Talarico’s candidacy. He is training as a seminarian, and having a young, engaging white man of demonstrated faith telling other people of faith that what the religious right has been doing has nothing to do with the Biblical teachings of Jesus is the last thing MAGA wants.

Frodo’s Journey: February 22, Shire Reckoning 1419

The Fellowship (minus Gandalf, who arrives just after they leave) departs Lothlórien and travels down the Anduin in small boats. After a few long days, and a brief skirmish with some Orcs, the Fellowship passes through the Gates of Argonath. This is one of the best visual scenes from the “Fellowship of the Ring” movie (see 2 minute clip below). It also signals that the pace of action is about to become fast and furious.

Featured Scifi 1990s TV Episode

A quirkly favorite show was “Northern Exposure,” the story of a newly-minted New York doctor who is assigned to a small, backwater Alaskan village. In “Grand Prix” (Season 5, Episode 22), Ed, a native American aspiring movie director and would-be shaman, takes on a case for his friend, Kim. Ed faces down these challenges in the form of a little green demon.

Demon to Ed: [Kim] has to win at all costs. You see, Ed, you're dealing with
the demon of external validation. And I'm here to tell ya, doc, you can't beat external validation. You want to know why? It's because it feels so good.

It turns out he’s right. Ed tries to fight External Validation, but External Validation knew just how to beat him. External Validation described Kim as made for him, driven by demanding, high-achieving, and no-introspection parents, and was determined to keep Kim as his customer. Ed admits his defeat to Kim.

I tried to fight External Validation for you, Kim. He's just too tough. You gotta fight him yourself. I can't do it for you. See, Kim, your head is telling you that
you've gotta be number one or you have no identity. But your heart is telling you
something completely different.

Seeing Ed grapple with External Validation is something I remember from decades ago; it made an impression. You can’t beat someone else’s need for External Validation — no one can; we have to defeat our own need for it.

Battle Hymns of the Week

A short walk through my random iTunes earlier today went this way.

“Can’t Buy Me Love” (Beatles, 2 minutes).

“Bang On the Drum All Day” (Todd Rundgren, 3 minutes).

“Let’s Start the New Year Right” (Bing Crosby, from “Holiday Inn;” song is 1 minute, followed by a dance scene with Marjorie Reynolds and a supposedly-inebriated Fred Astaire).

Letters From the Front

1. Springsteen tour.

https://brucespringsteen.net/news/2026/bruce-springsteen-and-the-e-street-bands-land-of-hope-and-dreams-american-tour-announced-for-spring-2026/

2. U2’s new EP.

https://www.u2.com/news/title/u2--days-of-ash-new-ep-out-now

3. Nils Lofgren new song.

4. High school students walking out of classes to protest ICE.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/09/us-high-schoolers-protest-ice

Specific article about South Carolina.

The Carolina Courier

Summerville HS ICE Walkout Tied to Local Leftist Burger Bar Owner; Police Investigating

Unfortunately, the hive-mind lunacy that has been plaguing Minneapolis, Los Angeles, and New York has finally made its way to the South Carolina Lowcountry. Across reliably blue states, teachers and activists are marching elementary school students through busy downtown streets under the banner of “Anti-ICE,” and high schoolers are staging walkouts at t…

Read more

2 months ago · 20 likes · 22 comments · James Bessinger

5. Jon Ossoff speech (3 minute outtake from Brian Tyler Cohen).

6. J. B. Priztger speech (5 minute outtake via C-SPAN).

7. The South Korean coup attempt was covered in a prior episode of this newsletter last year, based on a New York Times detailed report.

8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c70kjr9wjw0t

9. New Mexico re-opens investigation into former Epstein ranch.

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/new-mexico-attorney-general-reopens-investigation-into-epsteins-zorro-ranch/article_8de923e3-77ed-4478-97e5-f19468d1f4f4.html

10. Artcile about claim that Epstein was Putin’s wealth manager

https://people.com/jeffrey-epstein-was-vladimir-putin-wealth-manager-fbi-source-claimed-11897555

11. Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariff policy.

https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-tariffs-trump-0485fcda30a7310501123e4931dba3f9?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Feb20_2026_10:13AM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

12. Fortune on the deficit and the debt.

https://fortune.com/2026/01/20/how-much-national-debt-grew-trump-first-year-back-in-office-president/

13. Low fourth quarter growth.

https://apnews.com/article/gdp-economy-consumer-shutdown-immigration-0e5caca783b93eaf2231496e3e0f54f3?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Feb20_2026_09:02AM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

14. Virginia redistricting update.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/virginia-judge-block-democrats-redistricting-amendment-vote/

15. HCR interviews Kate Barr

16. Alternative to WHO?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/02/19/alternative-world-health-organization-p

17. Threats against Iran.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-military-middle-east-numbers-behind-trumps-threats-against-iran

18. Munich: Europeans new a new plan.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/what-i-heard-in-munich-we-europeans-need-a-plan/

19. Heather Cox Richardson reports on the first so-called Board of Peace meeting (issue is also about Mountbatten-Windsor and South Korea).

20. Board of Peace per Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Board_of_Peace

21. Chenoweth and Levitsky.

21. Colbert brings the receipts.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tv/articles/stephen-colbert-brings-receipts-over-165429302.html

Share

2 Minute Offense

1. President Trump declares he will control voting even without Congressional approval. There is no legal basis for any of this. They will try anything, and always seek to intimidate and frighten. Like Minneapolis, we must resist with courage (see Letters #2).

2. House passes the SAVE act. Sen. Murkowski (R-AL) sounds alarm about anti-voting SAVE bill (see Letters #3). It may not pass the Senate majorit of 50, let alone pass the filibuster level of 60, but nothing is certain yet. Here is a summary of the SAVE act.

3. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) releases extraordinary statement. This is what you say publicly when the mob is after you.

4. ICE updates.

• ICE says it will end its surge in Minneapolis (see Letters #4).

• ICE expansion plans reveal massive warehouse purchasing efforts already underway (see Letters #5). If left unchecked, this very profitable business would eventually run out of immigrants; what would happen then? Would they just shut down? Or would they find others to incarcerate to keep profits up?

• Judge demands return of Babson freshman student (snatched at the airport on a surprise visit home to see her see parents for Thanksgiving; she’s been in Honduras with her grandmother since; see Letters #6). “Judge Richard G. Stearns wrote in his decision. "Now it is time for the government to make amends." "

• Judge Boasberg decision affirms rights of non-citizens in US and requires the government to honor those rights (see Letters #7).

5. Epstein updates. The view here is that, while unfolding more slowly in the US than abroad, this is a lava flow that is just beginning.

• Unredacted versions of Epstein Files released so far were made available to Congresspeople for viewing (but not recording) last week. Rep. Raskin (D-MD) reports Trump’s name appeared a million times (see Letters #8). When Attorney General Pam Bondi testified to Congress last week (she refused to answer anything of substance), it was noticed in her notes that she had search history of those files — the feds apparently are tracking what is looked at (see Letters #9).

• Poland will investigate Epstein’s connection to Russian intelligence (see Letters #10).

• A few more business executives were forced to resign in USA.

• One news organization says that its analysis suggests that as little as 2% of the Epstein data has yet been released, based on data quantities know to have been seized compared vs. what’s been released (see Letters #11).

6. Redistricting and voting updates.

• VA supreme court says redistricting can go forward; vote in April (see Letters #12).

• Michigan judge rejects DOJ’s request for MI data (see Letters #13).

• NE suit to stop start from handing over data fails; will be appealed (see Letters #14).

• Marc Elias describes the layers of election thievery being attempted in detail (35 minutes, below); the first round, redistricting, may have been thwarted, but more will come.

7. Grab bag.

• Grand Jury refuses to indict 6 Congresspeople who reminded military members about their rights and obligations regarding following legal orders; the Pentagon can’t punish them either (see Letters #15).

• 3 Republicans in the House vote against supporting Trump tariff control; House Speaker Johnson’s attempt to stifle tariff opposition fails, allowing individual petitions to continue (see Letters #16).

• 6 Republicans vote to “slapback” Canada tariffs. “Why doesn’t the Congress stand on its own two feet and say that we’re an independent branch?” Bacon (R-NE) said. “We should defend our authorities. I hope the Supreme Court does, but if we don’t do it, shame on us.” (Bacon is retiring and not seeking re-election; see Letters #17.)

• Super Bowl Bad Bunny, “The only thing more powerful than hate is love,” and “Together, we are America.” Early figures suggest it was the most-watched halftime show ever and had better ratings than the game itself (see Letters #18).

• Latest polls. The guess here is that the declines are both against MAGA’s blatant and cruel thuggery, and also in protest of how hopeless life looks in general to young people (re: housing, jobs, high cost of living, onrushing AI, etc.) See Letters #19 for links to poll sources.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Growth during a Long Game

Last week I reviewed several letters from a year ago to look for parallels. There were many, but what was most striking was the sheer quantity of news breaking and the flow of information at that time was much less than what it is now. And yet at the time it seemed (and was) much more than what we had ever experienced before. It was overwhelming; it was why I started writing this newsletter to try to make sense of it all.

This issue’s two-minute offense list above is hugely long, and yet last week seemed Just Another Week to me. Conclusion: I have changed, dramatically. I am processing information at warp speed compared to a year ago, and am no longer being quite as emotionally rattled or as badly puzzled by it. The good news: I am adapting. The bad news: I am at risk of normalizing the insanity of these times and becoming insensate to what happens.

Think about how this applies to you, because I know it’s not just me that has been affected and changed. How are you different from a year ago?

When swept along by a raging tide, it is wise to acknowledge that we can’t stop the river from flowing. Yet we can try to navigate its currents. After you take stock to understand how you’ve changed in the last year, then see if any course corrections would help you to be more at peace, more joyful, and more durable. The river’s not slowing down anytime soon. We will grow during this long game whether we want to or not. Let’s try to make how we grow for the better as much as possible.

Reconnaissance Mission

‘What should we be doing?’ is the perpetual question. Below is a collection of ideas.

Marc Elias’s ideas (see Letters #20):

• Ban third party voting challenges (in many states anyone can challenge anyone else’s right to vote; and if the state wishes, it can rescind that right even before an investigation is completed, i.e., guilty until proven innocent).

• Provide criminal and civil laws regarding voter intimidation.

• Strengthen election certification laws.

• Prohibit Department of Justice officials from operating near polling places.

• Prohibit federal officials from any political-related investigations for 30 days before an election.

• Require criminal subpoena, arrest, or search warrants be obtained in the jurisdiction where the alleged activity occurred (the recent seizure of the Fulton Country, Georgia, voting apparatus and records was authorized by a MAGA-friendly judge in Missouri).

• Remove all immunity from federal officials if they deny or interfere with a qualified voter’s ability to vote.

Robert Reich’s ideas on what we can do to stop corporations supporting ICE (see Letters #21):

• Demand senators not fund DHS until abuses stop (they’re trying; DHS got years worth of funding last summer, but the spiggot beyond that is shut off at the moment).

• Check your own savings and investments; divest from CoreCivic (the largest owner and operator of ICE and Border Patrol detention centers) and any funds that support it.

• Tell the Democratic Governor’s Association to stop accepting money from CoreCivic.

• Complain directly to CoreCivic; write them directly at CoreCivic, 5501 Virginia Way, Suite 110, Brentwood, TN 37027 or phone them at 1-800-624-2931.

• Don’t financially support supporters and enablers of CoreCivic. YouTube and Google run their ads; AT&T, Home Depot, Amazon, and Microsoft provide “cloud computing, surveillance software, and logistical support.”

Chris Armitage’s proposed four laws to help end fascist madness (see Letters #22):

• The Child Sex Trafficking Investigation and Accountability Act: gives states authority to prosecute Epstein-related crimes; creates survivor’s compensation fund through fines (not tax dollars).

• The Fiscal Sovereignty and Election Protection Act: gives states ability to keep federal tax money in trust if the federal government is being lawless (the author suggests this is an appropriate extra-Constitutional response to extra-Constitutional behavior by the federal government).

• The Corporate Welfare Integrity Act: a corporation that spends on politics forfeits all rights to tax breaks, subsidies, and government contracts.

• The Bribe Is a Bribe Act: gives state attorneys general ability to prosecute any public official whose corruption affects state residents (including federal officials); clarifies bribery/corruption loopholes; residents can bring suit if a state’s AG won’t.

Taking Action

Joyce Vance collated what her readers are doing to alleviate stress right now (see Letters #23).

1. Spend time with animals.

2. Move around in fresh air (even if it is freezing).

3. Escapist reading and comfort TV.

4. Make things with your hands.

5. Be artistic and creative; learn new things.

6. Use music, food, and cozy home comforts as medicine.

7. Be involved with other people through gatherings and acts of kindness

8. Do something purposeful to help other (volunteer, etc.)

9. Engage in mindfulness and faith practices.

10. Allow yourself news blackouts.

Musing

One of my favorite stories is Bill Peet’s “Farewell to Shady Glade,” a children’s story with beautiful illustrations (see Letters #1). I love the illustrations, but what touched the most when reading it to my kids was the story itself.

A collection of animals happily live in an idyllic glade. Then one day, human machines, building new human things and destroying everything else in the process, are heading towards the glade. What are the animals to do? The image at the top of this newsletter is the group of animals talking together about their plight. They discuss options; discard the bad or impossible ideas; and arrive at a bold and dangerous solution: they have to flee their home before it is destroyed and move far away. The only way to do that is to hop on the top of a fast-moving train (using an overhanging branch from one of the glade’s trees).

They manage to do this successfully, and the train carries them forward at high speed. There are some friendly-looking rural areas that they pass through, but the train is going too fast to jump off safely. The only place the trains slows is in the city, and nobody wants to get off there.

So they stay atop the train, and off it goes back into the country. Luckily, in a wooded area near a pleasant stream, there is fallen tree blocking the rail, and train has to screech to a halt. The animals quickly hop off, and make themselves at home in their new, safe glade.

It was a terrifying journey. They lost everything that they had at the beginning — except each other. But with trust, faith, and a slice of good luck, they got to where they needed to be.

This is how I view the journey of the majority of Americans over the last year or more. Nobody wanted this. Many were reasonably happy as things were. But events happened, and we could not stop them. We responded as hastily and boldly as we could. Right now we’re on the train that is just leaving that nasty city. We’ve got a ways to go still, and we can’t imagine what will stop the train and let us get off. But if we make every effort we can, and trust that will suffice and that we’re going to get back our own Shady Glade, then sooner or later this journey will end. We can survive it, and one day we will thrive anew.

Frodo’s Journey: February 15, Shire Reckoning 1419

While in Lothlórien, Frodo and Sam are shown some ‘Elf-magic’ by Galadriel. Her Mirror “show things that were, and things that are, and things that yet may be.” Sam is torn by a vision of the Shire being ripped apart and at first wants to flee back home to save it. When Galadriel reminds him that the Mirror “is dangerous as a guide of deeds” he relents, but vows, “I hope I do get back some day. If what I’ve seen turns out to be true, somebody’s going to catch it hot!” Frodo’s vision is overtaken by the roving Eye, Sauron; as he slips forward, Galadriel brings him back softly by saying, “Do not touch the water!”

This seems to be Galadriel testing them again, as she did when they had first arrived. But Frodo flips the script, saying to Galadriel “I will give you the One Ring, if you ask for it.” Galadriel is taken aback, and tempted, for she had long desired the power of Ring to do good in the world. But she has grown, and is wise enough to say no. “The evil that was devised long ago works on in many ways, whether Sauron himself stands or falls.” Sam urges her to take the Ring, “You’d put things to rights. You’d stop them digging up the gaffer and turning him adrift. You’d make some folk pay for their dirty work.” “I would, “she said. “That is how it would begin. But it would not stop with that, alas!”

Arguably this moment is the crux of Tolkien’s philosophy behind the trilogy. What realist would refuse the power to defeat an evil foe? And yet that is exactly what must be done. I listened to an interview of President Obama (see Letters #24) and he basically gave the Galadriel point of view: if we win by becoming the enemy, then we have lost; we must win the harder way, by doing what is right.

Below is the animated version from 1978, since everyone likely already knows the visually-spectacular Peter Jackson version.

Featured Scifi Episode (cut for space reasons this week)

Battle Hymn of the Week

If you watched the Super Bowl last weekend, in the first quarter there was an ad for “The Adventures of Cliff Booth,” a new TV show. That ad used ELP’s “Peter Gunn” as the music. My team may not have won the game, but I had something to be happy about. Here’s the full version.

Letters From the Front

1. Bill Peet, Shady Glade

https://www.billpeet.net/billpeetdotnet/pages/farewell.htm

2. Trump voting demands quoted in Heather Cox Richardon’s letter, 2/13/26.

3. Murkowski about the SAVE act.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-sen-lisa-murkowski-comes-trumps-election-bill-warning-party-rcna258353

SAVE act passes House

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-save-america-act-trump-backed-election-bill-rcna258614

4. ICE out of MN

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/12/minnesota-ice-operation-retreat

5. Warehouse purchase plans for ICE.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/concerns-grow-ice-plans-build-mega-warehouses-immigration-detention-rcna257454

6. Babson student ordered returned to USA.

https://www.wcvb.com/article/federal-judge-orders-return-deported-babson-college-student-14-days/70349382

7. Joyce Vance writes about the Judge Boasberg decision.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

Judge Boasberg’s Most Recent Decision

The plaintiffs in J.G.G. v. Trump are non-U.S. citizen Venezuelan nationals who were denied due process before the Trump administration deported them under the Alien Enemies Act in March 2025. There is also a class of similarly situated individuals…

Read more

2 months ago · 2197 likes · 221 comments · Joyce Vance

8. Raskin reviews released Epstein files.

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/10/trump-epstein-files-jamie-raskin-unredacted

9. AG Bondi’s notes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/epstein-files-pam-bondi-jayapal-search-history-doj.html

10. Poland to investigate possible links between Epstrin and Russia

11. Epstein data quantities report.

12. VA redistricting going forward.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/in-victory-for-democrats-virginia-supreme-court-says-redistricting-vote-can-go-forward/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9bhlRnWowcFel594fxY2V_rVRMj6FQ9sN9rqqkpr3qSx1T_Uy5wegFHLAhPv0VJwkwejgfzuRuj17Shby-LenGswkLVg&_hsmi=403679579&utm_content=403679579&utm_source=hs_email

13. Michigan judge says not to DOJ voter data demand.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-appointed-judge-rejects-doj-attempt-to-access-michigan-voter-rolls/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--8spPabfSS-ygTUcmVWoNKvFkLV6msSwFhQLOJhnbkp5yHaE4WEGne5jprcmnTZPYQQo9HTr_9XOsmklsnWG1wPPvBkA&_hsmi=403057009&utm_content=403057009&utm_source=hs_email

14. Nebraska suit against releasing voter data.

https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/nebraska-doj-voter-data-request-challenge/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8f1Q-UEGBuMdjsH_2ybHeg9C6BaedPaysW829SFYU_UkaRcfVwR6DNxNWZx-ilc5p91SBJ3mbGMo6NOqb_kzGk6qCRmA&_hsmi=403057009&utm_content=403057009&utm_source=hs_email

15. Grand jury will not indict the Congressional delegates.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/10/lawmakers-military-orders-grand-jury-indictment-00775504

Pentagon can’t punish Senator Kelly.

https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-kelly-hegseth-illegal-orders-lawsuit-f028eade00c78123263bc3e28b3caa0e?user_email=362d5623d934b9af4efb488390249b30eca10677f1eec9c451eec28dfbcef57c&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Feb12_2026_01:04PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

16. 3 House Republicans vote with Democrats.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/10/politics/house-trump-tariffs-vote-republicans

17. Canada tariffs slapback.

https://apnews.com/article/congress-tariffs-trump-canada-db591b69fbc3d867a82c7ae22d7e308b?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

18. Bad Bunny ratings in Meidas Touch Network newsletter.

Meidas+

Today in Politics, Bulletin 304. 2/9/26

… Republicans continue to melt down over the Super Bowl halftime show by Bad Bunny as they rolled out MAGA alternative Kid Rock. Their principle objections to the show were: 1. Bunny sang in Spanish; 2. He’s not a “real American” since he’s from Puerto Rico. That is also why TPUSA called their event the “All-American” halftime show. As if mass deportations weren’t alienating latino voters enough already for Republicans, now we have this…

Read more

2 months ago · 1497 likes · 221 comments · Ron Filipkowski

19. First poll source is Simon Rosenberg:

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

Trump Is Weaker And Our Movement Is Stronger (New Video, Written Analysis)

Morning all. Got together with our paid subscribers last night. A recording of our discussion is above, and you can find a transcript here…

Listen now

2 months ago · 511 likes · 125 comments · Simon Rosenberg

Second poll source is G. Elliot Morris, low knowledge poll.

Strength In Numbers

The less voters knew, the more they liked Trump in 2024. Not Anymore

Two notes: First, this is a special article with insights from Strength In Number’s recent polling with Verasight. We just finished writing our February poll, and will publish the results in two weeks. (Please pray to the news gods that our questions stay relevant until then…

Read more

2 months ago · 273 likes · 25 comments · G. Elliott Morris

20. Marc Elias’s ideas:

https://newsletters.democracydocket.com/its-not-too-late-for-states-and-congress-to-stop-trump-from-subverting-the-midterms-1?ecid=ACsprvtrgoTF6x9aOQmrWQ5IIrYY-Wz-JqQQUmNaPzgEfZBXKAsj-WDJMHrs0WgPWLo8KOYi_ugb&utm_campaign=13199957-Premium%20Content%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8iCq2A--vdKQ8gVLnn_RMKen9efh4h8Ekep2_DL68vs11vzWjZjws3Rl8q2-zCrGOMeBFq6SaTI3crSst8fETahfCntw&_hsmi=402766648&utm_content=402766648&utm_source=hs_email

21. Robert Reich’s ideas.

https://substack.com/home/post/p-185841588

22. Chris Armitage’s ideas.

The Existentialist Republic

Four Laws To End The Fascist Madness.

I have been meeting with state and city representatives in North Carolina, Minnesota, Washington, and other states. They want to pass the laws that will knock this administration down and restore law and order. To get it done, we need to make sure every Democratic state legislator in the country has these proposals in their hands…

Read more

2 months ago · 899 likes · 92 comments · Christopher Armitage

23. Joyce Vance’ readers on stress relief ideas.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

An Agenda of Joy

Last Saturday, I wrote to you about Stress and Chickens. It’s a stressful time. Tonight, I’m following up on that with your ideas for beating the angst…

Read more

2 months ago · 281 likes · 30 comments · Joyce Vance

24. Brian Tyler Cohen’s interview of President Obama.

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2 Minute Offense

1. President Trump wants to take over elections. “We should take over the voting” he said (see Letters #1). See the Recon Mission below for much more.

2. The whistles are blowing (and not just against ICE).

• Almost a year ago the NSA reportedly detected a phone call between foreign intelligence and someone close to Trump; Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, whose favorable views of Russia have been well-documented, has thus far squelched any investigation (see Letters #2).

• Last week Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) wrote to CIA Director John Ratcliffe “I write to alert you to a classified letter I sent you earlier today, in which I express deep concerns about CIA activities;” this is a Wyden tyring to make sure what he believes to be a very serious issue doesn’t get buried (see Letters #3).

3. Redistricting update:

• Maryland’s attempt for a pro-Democrat redistricting passed the state House but is stalled in the state Senate (see Letters #4; 1 currently-Republican seat is at stake).

• US Supreme Court allows California redistricting (see Letters #5; 5 currently-Republican seats are at stake).

• Virginia’s attempt was rejected by a judge; a new map is being readied for voters (see Letters #6; 4 currently-Republican seats are at stake).

4. Culture wars pushback? Is the national narrative shifting away from culture wars that have dominated discourse for the last several decades? Two data points:

• Trump’s deeply racist social media post about Obamas drew ire from Republicans; Trump refused to apologize but did delete it (see Letters #7).

• Kennedy Center closes for ‘renovations’ (it was just renovated in 2019); in reality a “slew” of artists have refused to perform there since Trump reworked its name and the composition of its board (see Letters #8).

5. Presumption of regularity is vanishing. A judge ruled that the US government’s “presumption of regularity … no longer holds,” in a ruling against the Department of Justice’s attempt to seize state voter data (see Letters #9).

6. Epstein Files update. International political figures in the UK are tumbling; some business figures in the USA have taken a hit. Now branded the “Epstein Class” (by Sen. Ossof, D-GA), many figures in the Trump administration are mentioned many times as well, including the President (see Letters #10).

7. Another landslide special election win for the Democrat. This time in Louisiana, a 37 point reversal from a district Trump won by 13 to a Democratic win by 24 (outpacing the 32 point reversal seen in Texas last week).

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Finding the Right Balance

For me, every wargame I play is an internal struggle. Generally I have a pretty good idea of what is smart play that should lead to victory. But I have an unbridled creative side that wants to see new things just because they are new, regardless of whether or not those actions may help to gain victory. This is a tension between disciplined strategy and creative strategy on the gaming table.

The problem, as I’ve demonstrated many times, is that undisciplined creative strategy will lose to disciplined repetitive strategy every time. There are good reasons why tried-and-true methods got to be tried-and-true: they work and they win.

But I have also noticed that what is commonly-accepted winning strategy does gradually evolve over time. If it was tried-and-true, how can that happen?

The answer is that the tried-and-true can be beaten by creative strategies but only when the creative strategy takes into account the tried-and-true and surpasses it. To put it another way, it takes disciplined creative strategy to beat disciplined repetitive strategy.

How do you find that winning elixir? You don’t find it — you create it; like a medieval alchemist seeking a magic formula, you try and fail time and time again. You pinpoint the tactics that worked and learn to expand them. You move on from what did not work. You are adaptable. You are reslient and come back from failure to try again.

This is what changes frameworks of thinking. This is also something that hidebound thinkers simply cannot do. They may win most of the games, but they will never change the world. I’d rather lose most of the time, and occasionally change the world.

Reconnaissance Mission

Steve Bannon said last week that President Trump will use ICE to try to interfere with elections next fall.

To say the MAGA leadership is scared is an understatement. They see 30+ point swings in strongly red districts in Texas last week and Louisana this week, and make no mistake: the basic math and its implications does not elude them. It means, in chronological order, a stroll down the path outlined below. We can’t be sure how far down the path things would go in 2027-2028 (that is to say, before the next presidential election), but the view here is that the first four steps would be virtually guaranteed to occur. If we assume free and fair elections next fall, then:

1. The Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives next fall. By a lot.

2. The Democracts will win control of the Senate by a small margin (since only one-third of the seats are up for a vote every two years, unlike 100% of the House’s seats).

3. President Trump will be subject to an impeachment procedure.

4. The House will approve the articles of impeachment; this requires a simple majority vote, and the Democrats by themselves will easily have that.

5. Impeachment conviction requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate, and as we saw in late January 2021, even an attempted insurrection isn’t necessarily viewed as reason to cross party lines. This time the Senate would start with a base of about Democratic 52+ votes in favor of impeachment; about 15 Republican votes would be needed so the presumption is that the President would not be removed from office. But consider for a moment, that in 2019 and 2020 it was clear that Donald Trump was still a national political force to be reckoned with. By 2027, Senate Republicans may not fear retribution from an 80-year-old with wandering mental capacity whose policies were just soundly thrashed at the polls quite as much as they fear retribution from their constituent voters who would have just overwhelming voted out many Trump supporters in the House and Senate. It is a stretch, but not an impossible stretch, to suppose that some Republican senators could reason that Trump will soon be gone from the stage by natural causes anyways, so it may be better to join the bandwagon against Trump while they still can and save their own careers before facing voter wrath in 2028 or 2030.

6. If President Trump is successfully removed from office what’s to stop the Democratic majority from attempting to impeach Vice President Vance too? Nothing, nothing at all. Senate Republicans are even less likely to go along with this because it would elevate the Democratic Speaker of the House (whoever that turns out to be) to the Presidency. But Vance’s popularity (if he has any) would take a huge hit, and Senate Republicans would be boxed into voting to save someone they may not like very much and at political cost to themselves.

7. In the unlikely event all of the above worked against MAGA, we could see sweeping changes including immediate legal proceedings against all of the illegal behaviors the many individuals in this regime have reportedly engaged in.

The MAGA leadership — as Sen. Ossoff put it, the Epstein Class — will do anything to avoid having to face accountability. Let’s remember who MAGA is (see Letters #11).

In a law-abiding society run by sensible people with regard for others, none of the above groups or people would hold any power and they know it. It was clear a year ago, having captured the reins of political power in the USA, the MAGA alliance would:

• Enrich themselves and take actions that everyday citizens would despise and find horrifying.

• That these actions, if unchecked, would turn everyday citizens into something like serfs or slaves, because that is how those in the MAGA alliance view people who aren’t on their team in one of the groups in the graphic above. This is what fascists do when they have power; they can’t help themselves because it is who they really are.

• Given those MAGA behaviors, they were foreordained to become extremely unpopular in a short period of time.

• They knew this; the only thing that mattered, then, would be whether the MAGA alliance could control and subvert future elections, starting with the midterms in 2026.

This is why they have rolled out the full authoritarian playbook from Day 1:

• Shred as much of the federal bureaucracy as possible.

• Threaten and undermine citizens’ ability to thrive with the threat or actual loss of everyday needs like healthcare.

• Overwhelm the public sphere with constant chaos to make people tune out.

• Terrorize, deport, hurt, or even kill immigrants as much as they can get away, not only because they like doing that, but also to make the point that any opponent of the regime could face the same.

They also want to rewrite history in their favor (see Letters #12), such as the below quote from Trump himself last week.

Specifically with regard to the midterms, wherever possible, they already have and/or will:

• Demonize as unpatriotic any MAGA political opponent.

• Redistrict friendly states to gain as many House seats as possible.

• Disenfranchise selected voting groups (like women and minorities) that prefer to vote for Democrats; this is what the so-called SAVE Act is all about.

• Suppress votes by eliminating mail-in ballots, early voting, and drop boxes so that all voting has to be done in-person on election day only.

• Use ICE to interfere with day-of voting.

• Find other ways to subvert the election.

So yes, ICE will be used to interfere with elections; this is no surprise. Using any pretext, ICE will most likely try to interfere in blue districts in purple states to tip the balance towards Republicans. They will try to shut down polling places before all votes can be cast. They will try to seize ballots. They will try to discredit results. And probably several other things. It is going to be very ugly, so we might as well get used to the idea.

Marc Elias is the leading legal defender of democracy. Below is 30 minute deep-dive video by him. It is a great summary of where we are legally regarding election integrity. Elias makes clear that last week when Trump said that elections should be nationalized he also said that Republicans should assert control. That isn’t “standardizing” anything; it is asserting one-party rule. Where? Blue cities in purple states. Last week’s seizure of 2020 ballots in Fulton County, GA is likely an early move in this operation, a trial run to see what they can do with unfriendly ballots. How long before we see the administration announce it has “discovered” irregularities that they found (and that several prior recounts did not find)? Elias recounts Trump’s increasing and wild (and not legal) demands since last year that all voting ultimately is his, personally, to regulate and control, and that this is why the federal government has been demanding state voter data (remember the federal response to Alex Pretti’s murder from AG Bondi? “Give us your voting data and we’ll relent.”)

And that brings us back to Steve Bannon. It is surprising is Steve Bannon saying this out loud 9 months in advance. Is he trying to energize followers? Frighten opponents? Regardless, this is what desperate authoritarians do to retain power and avoid personal accountability for their evil and lawless actions. We need to have the civic courage to stand up to defend democracy.

Taking Action & Musing

Let this be an antidote to the Recon Mission’s dark foreshadowing.

Early last week an article (by Harvard professor Julia Minson, in the New York Times from the print edition 2/2/26) discussed how to talk to people who disagree with your political views, “Americans Can Learn to Agree to Disagree.” Minson notes that:

Our research shows that clearly stating that you want to learn about your counterpart’s perspective significantly improves how that person evaluates both you and your arguments.

Moreover:

Staying constructive requires continued engagement with opposing views even as we argue for our own. Conversations are two-way affairs …. But it’s easy to destroy all the good will you just created with curiousity by stating your views too dogmatically or letting snark creep in.

Instead we should use “hedging phrases like ‘sometimes’ and ‘maybe’ ” when presenting your own views while acknowledging and restating your counterpart’s views to create “conversational receptiveness.”

It was interesting to read a Super Bowl preview article today in light of the above. The article was about New England Patriots’ coach Mike Vrabel (see Letters #13) and the culture he built in just one season. 25-year veteran football writer Greg Bedard wrote:

Winning breeds happiness. When you’re the Patriots, and you’ve lost one game since September, the vibes are off the charts.

That’s what I thought for much of this season.

And I was wrong.

Bedard cites 61 year-old coach (and football lifer) Doug Marrone about what happened this year for the team.

“I get tears in my eyes thinking about it,” Marrone said. “Yeah, I really do. It’s amazing, because it’s so amazing. I’ve been in this business a long time. It’s been ... it’s unbelievable. It really is unbelievable.

“I had started to lose a little bit of faith in that team aspect of sports. And I think because, whatever the reasons, we can say, you know, where people brand themselves or financially, it’s at a large scale. But I think the thing that I keep with me, what this season has proved to me, is that you can do it the right way. When I think of a team, I think of the first team I was ever on was, it was as an 8-year-old in a Little League and how much joy, and how much fun it was. Once you got to college, it became like a job. College now is definitely a job. It’s such a great feeling to be part of a team, a true team. I don’t remember that in like forever. It was something that I thought maybe couldn’t be done anymore, with the personalities and everything that’s in here, and this is probably the closest team that I’ve ever been a part of. I would say that’s Coach Vrabel. And as soon as I said that, his first answer will be, ‘It’s the players and coaches.’ It does come across as genuine.

“Everybody says the same thing. Yeah, everybody wants this. Everybody wants it. But I don’t think everyone can cultivate, and I don’t think anyone’s done a better job of cultivating it than him. I don’t care if he gets mad at me for saying that or not. It’s the truth.”

Many quotes from other coaches and players have made clear they feel the same way, and that the reason why is that they were respectfully listened to from day one.

I also heard today a faith leader deliver one of the most memorable addresses I’ve ever heard (see Letters #14; 6 minutes long, starting at 8:30 mark). While he eventully tied his thoughts back to faith components, the main focus is how we should all be bold and authentic. It is a mistake, he said, that we have been told:

to not stand out, not let our light shine any brighter than the next person. And I think the reason for that is because sometimes our light can frighten us more than our darkness. We were taught for far too long that to be salt of the earth simply meant to be hard-working and humble. Hard-working is a good characteristic. But we have mistaken humility for not speaking up, and not being bold….

We all have a responsibility to be brilliant, to be gorgeous, talented, and fabulous. Those qualities are not only limited to beautiful people, or the smart people, or the rich people. Those qualities belong to every single one of us….

When we realize that, then the world can see who we really are: strong people, willing to be bold in the face of sinful strutures, and willing to be authentic witnesses to the love of God in the face of hatred and evil. And perhaps the most significant result of being bold and authentic is that it allows others to be bold and authentic.

(I feel badly for chopping up this marvelously crafted 6 minute talk; for instance I edited out the framework which is the speaker’s moving visit to the 9/11 museum in New York City.)

These three complementary pieces for me all pointed in the same direction. It’s the boldness and authenticity with which we treat with others that drives satisfying success in any walk of life.

If you don’t recognize the below, email me, and I’ll gush about a great TV show.

Frodo’s Journey: February 8, Shire Reckoning 1419

The fellowship is recovering in the safety of Lothlórien. They all grieve the death of Gandalf. Frodo writes a poem in tribute:

When evening in the Shire was grey
his footsteps on the Hill were heard;
before the dawn he went away
on journey long without a word.

From Wilderland to Western shore,
from northern waste to southern hill,
through dragon-lair and hidden door
and darkling woods he walked at will.

With Dwarf and Hobbit, Elves and Men,
with mortal and immortal folk
with bird on bough and best in den
in their own secret tongues he spoke.

A deadly sword, a healing hand,
a back that bent beneath its load;
a trumpet-voice, a burning brand,
a weary pilgrim on the road.

A lord of wisdom throned he sat,
swift in anger, quick to laugh;
an old man in a battered hat
who leaned upon a thorny staff.

He stood upon the bridge alone
and Fire and Shadow both defied;
his staff was broken on the stone,
in Khazad-dûm his wisdom died.

To which Sam added about Gandalf’s fireworks:

The finest rockets ever seen:
they burst in stars of blue and green,
or after thunder golden showers,
came falling like a rain of flowers.

Featured Scifi Episode

“Naked Time” (Season 1, episode 4) has several scenes memorable in Star Trek lore, such as the clip below of Sulu’s maniacal fencing (3 minute) and Spock confessing his love for Nurse Chapel. These and other crazy crew activities are the result of an infection, but the infection. Did the infection make the characters crazy? Or did it just strip away their practiced veneer of civilized and controlled behavior, letting loose the impulses that lay beneath?

Battle Hymn of the Week

Life ever unfolds with its panoply of emotions. Whether you are rooting for a team in the Super Bowl today, or feel passionately about the defense of democracy, or have powerful feelings for a special someone in a St. Valentine’s way, here is a doubleshot of songs that cover both ends of the spectrum of sentiment.

GTR, “When the Heart Rules the Mind,” and Heart “If Looks Could Kill.”

Letters From the Front

1. President Trump’s escalating demands regarding taking control of all voting.

https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/trump-midterm-elections-voting-attacks-conspiracy-theories/

2. Tulsi Gabbard whistleblower complaint.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/07/nsa-foreign-intelligence-trump-whistleblower

Views on Gabbard and Russia.

https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/tulsi-gabbard-russia-and-ukraine

3. Wyden’s letter.

https://www.wyden.senate.gov/news/press-releases/wyden-expresses-deep-concerns-about-cia-activities-in-classified-letter

4. Maryland redistricting update.

https://www.wypr.org/wypr-news/2026-02-05/maryland-democrat-leaves-senate-floor-in-protest-amid-redistricting-stall

5. California redistricting approved by Supreme Court.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-california-congressional-map-midterms/

6. Virginia redistricting update.

https://wset.com/news/local/virginia-democrats-push-10-1-congressional-map-after-judge-deems-amendment-unconstitutional-redistricting-politics-democrat-republican-richmond-va-february-2026

7. Trump’s deeply racist social media post about the Obamas.

https://www.npr.org/2026/02/06/nx-s1-5704281/trump-posts-racist-meme-of-the-obamas-then-deletes-it

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/06/donald-trump-obamas-monkey-video-00768745

8. Kennedy Center closing for ‘renovations.’

https://www.ms.now/opinion/trump-kennedy-center-shutdown-renovations-autocracy

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/20/nx-s1-5675192/kennedy-center-canceled-performances

9. Judge rules DOJ can no longer be trusted.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/federal-judge-rules-doj-can-no-longer-be-trusted-in-voter-roll-crusade/

10. Epstein Files affect on the UK government.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/05/how-epstein-scandal-shaken-british-government-peter-mandelson

Sen. Ossoff on the ‘Epstein Class.’

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=939804148479090

11. Who is MAGA?

The Freedom Academy with Asha Rangappa

Making Sense of MAGA

It’s tempting to think of MAGA as a single movement, but it’s really a composite of several factions with parallel (and occasionally conflicting) agendas in play. That’s why it’s so hard to get a handle on what, exactly, is going on — especially when there are so many things going on at once. Ever since the Musk takeover of government in Trump 2.1 (wher…

Read more

7 months ago · 1466 likes · 122 comments · Asha Rangappa

12. Heather Cox Richardson’s quoting Trump, 2/5/26/

13. Bedard on Vrabel (subscription required).

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2026/02/06/bedard-the-mike-vrabel-effect-is-very-real-for-patriots-and-it-might-result-in-a-super-bowl-title

14. Excerpted from 2/8/26 daily 30-minute Catholic Mass.

https://www.catholictv.org/catholictv-mass/sunday-mass-5th-week-ordinary-time.html

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2 Minute Offense

1. Elections past.

• Fulton County 2020 ballots seized by FBI. Lacking time travel options, President Trump keeps trying to win in 2020 any way he can think of — he lost by a lot — likely in order to use it as fuel to blow-torch the mid-terms next fall (see Letters #1). Reminder that there were 62 legal challenges made by team Trump at the time, and they lost them all.

• Last week former special counsel Jack Smith testified under oath before Congress (see Letters #2) about the investigation into Trump trying to stop the peaceful transfer of power before and on January 6, 2021, saying:

“We followed the facts and we followed the law. Where that led us was to an indictment of an unprecedented criminal scheme to block the peaceful transfer of power… Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in criminal activity. If asked whether to prosecute a former president based on the same facts today, I would do so regardless of whether that president was a Republican or a Democrat…. No one should be above the law in this country, and the law required that he be held to account.”

2. Minneapolis ICE assault update.

• Greg Bovino was replaced, and Kristi Noem was seemingly sidelined, but ICE operations continue (see Letters #3).

• Republican candidate for Minnesota governor Chris Madel dropped out of the race saying “"I cannot support the national Republicans' stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.” Per NPR (see Letters #4), he called ICE efforts “an unmitigated disaster” and that “United States citizens, particularly those of color, live in fear. United States citizens are carrying papers to prove their citizenship. That’s wrong.” He also noted that as a pragmatist, he realized that no Republican was going to win a state-wide vote in the near future.

• Amy Klobuchar, Democratic Senator, entered the governorship race; rumor is that if she wins, she will appoint present Governor Tim Walz to her senate seat (see Letters #5).

• See this week’s Battle Hymn below for more on the stirring Bruce Springsteen song about Minneapolis released last week.

• The Department of Justice will “participate” in a civil rights violation investigation on behalf of murder victim Alex Pretti (see Letters #6).

3. Reporters arrested. Don Lemon was charged with the crime of “being a journalist covering a protest” last week (see Letters #7). Joyce Vance wrote:

4. Adrian and Liam Arias released. Adrian is the 5 year-old who was held captive by ICE along with his father (see Letters #8). Some judges have rebuked the federal government’s actions, but this ruling tops them all (sorry for the long quote).

OPINION AND ORDER OF THE COURT

Before the Court is the petition of asylum seeker Adrian Conejo Arias and his five-year-old son for protection of the Great Writ of habeas corpus. They seek nothing more than some modicum of due process and the rule of law. The government has responded.

The case has its genesis in the ill-conceived and incompetently-implemented government pursuit of daily deportation quotas, apparently even if it requires traumatizing children. This Court and others regularly send undocumented people to prison and orders them deported but do so by proper legal procedures.

Apparent also is the government’s ignorance of an American historical document called the Declaration of Independence. Thirty-three-year-old Thomas Jefferson enumerated grievances against a would-be authoritarian king over our nascent nation. Among others were:

1. “He has sent hither Swarms of Officers to harass our People.”

2. “He has excited domestic Insurrection among us.”

3. “For quartering large Bodies of Armed Troops among us.”

4. “He has kept among us, in Times of Peace, Standing Armies without the consent of our Legislatures.”

“We the people” are hearing echos of that history.

And then there is that pesky inconvenience called the Fourth Amendment:

‘The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and persons or things to be seized.’

U.S. CONST. amend. IV.

Civics lesson to the government: Administrative warrants issued by the executive branch to itself do not pass probable cause muster. That is called the fox guarding the henhouse. The Constitution requires an independent judicial officer.

Accordingly, the Court finds that the Constitution of these United States trumps this administration’s detention of petitioner Adrian Conejo Arias and his minor son, and release from detention are GRANTED pursuant to the attached Judgment.

Observing human behavior confirms that for some among us, the perfidious lust for unbridled power and the imposition of cruelty in its quest know no bounds and are bereft of human decency. And the rule of law be damned.

Ultimately, Petitioners may, because of the arcane United States immigration system, return to their home country, involuntarily or by self-deportation. But that result should occur through a more orderly and humane policy than currently in place.

Philadelphia, September 17, 1787: “Well, Dr. Franklin, what do we have?” “A republic, if you can keep it.”

With a judicial finger in the constitutional dike,

It is so ORDERED.

The Judge lastly included the famous photo of the child:

5. Elections present.

• Yesterday in a special Texas state senate election, the Democrat won by 14+ points in a district Trump won in 2024 by 17+ points, a staggering total turnaround of 32 points in the Democrats favor (see Letters #9). Per statistician G. Elliot Morris, “these are senator james talarico numbers” (i.e., this could be an indication of a Democractic Senate seat victory next fall). Special elections last year generally were 10-15 points in the Democracts’ favor vs. 2024, with the margin increasing over time. This was the first large special election since the Minneapolis murders.

• “The President has no role at all in federal elections.” A powerful ruling struck down a Trump executive order that tried to assert that states are the President’s agents in federal elections (which if true could allow the President to set the details of federal elections, including who is or is not eligibile to vote). The judge clearly and unequivocably ruled against this point of view. It will undoubtedly be appealed and may reach the Supreme Court. But for now, a clear win for democrary. (See Letters #10.)

6. Budget showdown. While many government funding bills were passed last week, DHS was given a two week stopgap funding only, while negotiations on DHS and ICE reforms continue (see Letters #11). It is interesting that DHS funding will have to stand by itself. This is the exact opposite situation of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ last year when all funding was interlocked, forcing politicians in both parties into hard choices about letting pass what they did not like in order to keep what they did like — which was very effective. This situation could give Democrats’ greater ability to influence the situation.

7. Trump sues IRS for $10 billion. He thinks he deserves it for the leak of his tax information, something that prior Presidents always provided; turns out he paid little to no US taxes. Or maybe it is just that he thinks he can get away with it (see Letters #12).

8. Epstein update. Millions of documents were released on a public website Friday. Then some were deleted. As findings are analyzed over the coming week this story will likely be in the forefront (see Letters #13).

9. Elections future.

• Virginia’s attempted redistricting by state constitutional amendement by Democrats suffered a setback (see Letters #14); litigation is ongoing.

• Thwarted by the Utah Supreme Court in their attempt to redistrict in Republican favor (and despite Republican-appointed judges sitting on that Court), the Utah governor and state assembly passed a motion to add two new seats to the Utah Supreme Court immediately (see Letters #15).

10. TikTok ownership transfer. TikTok users should beware.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Diagnosing a Retreat

Congratulations, you’ve launched a successful offensive. You can see your opponent moving pieces around in response and looking worried. Is it a retreat? What is your opponent really thinking, and what happens next? There are three basic kinds of retreats. Once you diagnose which one your opponent is trying to achieve, then you can determine how best to continue your offensive.

• Phony Retreat. Your offensive discombobulated your opponent; the opponent feels the need to pause a moment. Perhaps the opponent will reshuffle some troops around. A clever opponent might seemingly give ground, but with the plan to counter-attack if you try to advance. The bottomm line is that your opponent’s intentions have not changed one iota.

• Tactical Retreat. Your opponent feels obliged to yield some ground. Typically this is done to reposition to superior defensive terrain, such as behind a river, or perhaps to shorten defensive lines so that fewer troops can do the same job. Your opponent has acknowledged a small loss, but believes the line can be held.

• Strategic Retreat. Your opponent is making preparations to fall back in a significant way. Some expendable-but-heroic loss-takers may be moved to the front to cover the retreat so that the majority of your opponent’s forces can escape the situation intact. Your opponent is choosing to live to fight another day elsewhere and is giving up this battlefield.

It is the view here that the Trump regime was hoping for a phony retreat in the wake of the enormous national backlash triggered by the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. The reshuffling of Greg Bovino out of command was the tell early last week. As the days unfolded and culminated in even more national protests late in the week, and with some national Republicans wavering in their MAGA support*, the belief here is that this situation is already a tactical retreat, and may yet become a strategic retreat for the MAGA regime — the latter remains to be seen, and depends on the negotiations over DHS/ICE funding that are pending.

* ~ See the two minute offense notes above; also, yesterday the Senate barely defeated a measure 51-49 promoted by Sen. Bernie Sanders that would have repealed the massive DHS / ICE funding from last summer and shifted the funds to ACA healthcare support (see Letters #16).

Reconnaissance Mission

Human society is shaped by how we communicate with one another. When conflicts arise, and they always do, we have a simple, fundamental choice: are we willing to talk to each other to try to work out something, or not?

The last ten years of Trumpian politics, building on the prior thirty years of deliberate discordancy, have seen the idea of talking to work out differences tarnished, ridiculed, scoffed at, and villified. RINO, a term that means “Republican In Name Only,” throughout the Trump years has been aggressively and derisively used against any Republican politician who didn’t follow the strict Trump marching orders, especially any Republican who might be willing to work with politicians who hold other viewpoints. The Democrats have been guilty of this at times, too, albeit less often and less viciously.

The logical endpoint one reaches with this attitude is inescapable: if you’re not going to talk with those you have conflict with, then you will have to silence them. But what if they are not inclined to be silent? The only card left to play is to muzzle them, somehow. Sideline them. Scare them. Snatch them. Or maybe shoot them.

As 2026 unfolds this stark choice is manifesting before our eyes. The hope here is that we Americans may relearn some lessons from our history. Finding mutually beneficial common ground is a good thing that we all can do, if we are willing to try. Yes, all that listening, and talking, and thinking, again and again and again, is exhausting, hard work — but it sure beats the sidelining, scaring, snatching, and shooting.

Taking Action

Saturday March 28th has been announced as the next No Kings protest. Mark your calendar now. The last No Kings is already ranked as the largest single-day protest in US history (see Letters #17); this will be larger.

If you wonder “What good does a protest really do?” Harvard professor and leading expert on resistance to authoritarianism Erika Chenoweth has a 2 minute answer (from a live chat with Indivisible last week):

Musing (Part 2 of 2)

2 weeks ago part 1 covered poetry expert Adam Walker’s discussion in which he outlines 7 reasons why he believes we may be at the cusp of a new period of Renaissance in the world. See links below for the full video from Walker, and the first half of this discussion, Letters #18, which covered the first three signs of a new Renaissance; we conclude with the last four signs.

4. Awareness of Language. This a recovery of our ability to perceive and use the power of language to shape reality.

Renaissance moments often bring with them a new attention to language and its ability to transform consciousness collectively…. All experience changes consciousness, and experience with art is probably the highest form of transformation…. Just look at what Dickinson did during the American Renaissance. She single-handedly invented a concise and dynamic form of poetry capable of representing human experience in a way that had never been done before and [made] poems that could hold more than a single meaning.

5. Re-enchantment of the world. New forms of art create new responses to beauty, evil, and good.

Some toxic forms of entertainment we see today are of course to be found in conspiracy theories and flat earth-ism, but the good kind of enchantment I’m talking about here is experienced psychologically as the tremendous feeling of awe, wonder, inspiration, that leads not to greed and power, but to humility and beauty and generosity…. Collective re-enchantment brings a greater awareness of a deeper spiritual reality within nature…. It awakens and enlargens the mind itself by rendering it a receptacle of a thousand unapprehended combinations of thought…. It’s making the world new…. Re-enchantment breaks the spell of habit and allows us to see the world as it really is: bright, luminous, and full of meaning.

6. A New Relationship with the Divine. Art and language are the way that humans interact with the divine, and past Renaissance movements have always seen a rebirth of this connection.

This sign of reorienting ourselves to the divine first emerges as a resistance to religious fundamentalism, which is when metaphor breaks down into literalism…. The spiritual life of a culture is directly related to its artistic life. And right now, the spiritual life of us all is being directed by the market into the market…. Our new temples are malls…. I think the people in the new Renaissance are going to be encouraged to see art as a spiritual practice and literature as a conversation with the divine.

7. A New Relationship with Past Art. Discovery and re-discovery of forgotten texts always goes hand-in-hand with the development of new ideas.

Our new Renaissance may be brought about by the discovery of forgotten con-text … a growing return to the classics and traditions of great literature…. Although many are disconnected still from our traditions, the signs of recovery are growing. Spring rain may quicken the dull roots, and I see already some growth emerging. History shows us that culture is renewed not through institutions — institutions are great, we need them — it often happens when the institutions are at their weakest, and it always happens through ordinary readers, when ordinary people rediscover the resolve to attend, to contemplate, to cultivate, and to create, that is to go out and to imagine more than what has been imagined before.

Frodo’s Journey: February 1, Shire Reckoning 1419

After the fall of Gandalf, the fellowship escaped from Moria and fled to the safety of Lothlórien, a hidden elvish stronghold in the forest. The Lord Celeborn hears their tale, then delivers some harsh words about Dwarves stirring up the evil in Moria, a potentially divisive sentiment that the Lady Galadriel diplomatically redirects. But Galadriel’s scrutiny that followed was even more challenging than Celeborn’s harsh words.

She held them with her eyes, and in silence looked searchingly at each of them in turn. None save Legolas and Aragorn could long endure her glance. Sam quickly blushed and hung his head….

‘What did you blush for, Sam?’ said Pippin. ‘You soon broke down. Anyone would have thought you had a guilty conscience. I hope it was nothing worse than a wicked plot to steal one of my blankets.’

‘I never thought no such thing,’ answered Sam, in no mood for jest. ‘If you want to know, I felt as if I hadn’t got nothing on, and I didn’t like it. She seemed to be looking inside me and asking me what I would do if she gave me the chance of flying of back home to the Shire to a nice little hole with — with a bit of garden of my own.’

Perhaps Galadriel really said ‘with Rosie Cotton’? Sam won’t admit his feelings for Rosie for hundreds of pages.

When Boromir says he does “not feel tooo sure of this Elvish Lady and her purposes,” Aragorn sternly replies:

‘Speak no evil of Lady Galadriel! You know not what you say. There is in her and in this land no evil, unless a man bring it hither himself. Then let him beware!’

Featured Scifi Episode

Firefly’s “Shindig” is a legendary sci-fi episode (season 1, episode 4). The episode features Captain Mal getting involved in a duel with an annoying rich guy (credit to the actor for playing a “punch me, please” face so convincingly) who has been giving slights and insults to everyone all episode. There’s a problem though: rich guy is a good swordsman, and Mal isn’t. It all works out in the end, and Captain Mal gets to show his quality of mercy, such as it is.

Mal: Mercy is the mark of a great man. (stabs prone rich guy) Guess I’m just a good man. (stabs again) Well, I’m alright.

Battle Hymn of the Week

“On The Streets of Minneapolis” was released last week by Bruce Springsteen. The first YouTube release was audio-only; it garnered over 3,000,000 views in the first 24 hours. A follow-up release including extensive video footage from the ground in Minneapolis and elsewhere (see video link above); it also had over 3,000,000 views in just over a day.

It was heartwarming to scan the comments on the two YouTube pages. There are numerous comments from people in other countries around the world expressing solidarity with Americans, offering encouragement to all those who oppose the cruelty and lawlessness. Grateful responses from Americans followed. Here is one example (you can tell the writer really is from Germany because of the capitalized nouns!):

Good Morning from Germany. The Song and video brings me to tears. As a grandchild from Germans who experienced the Horrors of the Nazi-Regime I feel the Need to raise my Voice and express my connectedness with the Protesters.
It‘s time for all of humanity to come together and make clear our determination to no longer tolerate this gruelsome treatment of our fellow men, women and especially children! Everyone can contribute in a certain way. Remember: if you think you Are just a drop in the ocean: The ocean consists of millions of Drops! And you know the power an oceanwave can have.
For the world you are also an example of what is possible when people unite. Stay strong! Bless you all!

Reports are that the song reached #1 in iTunes downloads in at least 19 countries across the world (see Letters #19).

Letters From the Front

1. FBI raid on Fulton County 2020 elections materials.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/fbi-raid-of-election-offices-ignites-debate-over-voting-security-and-federal-authority

Legal challenges to the 2020 election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_lawsuits_related_to_the_2020_U.S._presidential_election

2. Summary of Jack Smith’s testimony:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/23/six-key-takeaways-from-jack-smiths-testimony-on-his-case-against-trump

3. Bovino demoted.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/01/greg-bovino-demoted-minneapolis-border-patrol/685770/

4. Madel quits Minnesota governor race.

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/26/nx-s1-5688899/chris-madel-minnesota-governor-ice-alex-pretti

5. Klobuchar runs for Minnesota governor.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/29/amy-klobuchar-minnesota-governor-campaign

6. Department of Justice participated in investigation over Alex Pretti’s murder.

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/doj-opens-civil-rights-investigation-alex-pretti/

7. Lemon taken into custody.

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

Why Indict Don Lemon?

Don Lemon was taken into custody Thursday night by federal agents in Los Angeles, where he was covering the Grammy Awards. DOJ indicted him for being a journalist covering a protest. The protest was in Minneapolis, and its target was a pastor at a local church whom the group that gathered believed was working for ICE. They interrupted a service to confr…

Read more

2 months ago · 2234 likes · 207 comments · Joyce Vance

8. Arias ruling.

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txwd.1172886492/gov.uscourts.txwd.1172886492.9.0.pdf

9. Texas special election results.

10. Marc Elias describes the court ruling against the Trump executive order (11 minute video).

11. Budget funding update.

https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/minority/senate-passes-five-funding-bills-strips-out-dhs-bill-to-ensure-negotiations-proceed-to-rein-in-ice-and-cbp

12. Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit.

https://itep.org/president-trump-sues-american-people-for-10-billion-irs/

13. Esptein update.

https://apnews.com/live/epstein-files-news-updates-1-31-2026

14. Virginia redistricting setback.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Virginia_Redistricting_Amendment

15. Utah adds two state Supreme Court justices.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/utah-governor-signs-bill-adding-215633429.html

16. Senate vote to repeal DHS / ICE funding fails, barely.

https://www.newsweek.com/two-republicans-just-voted-to-divert-billions-in-ice-funds-to-medicaid-11446701

17. List of US protests

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_and_demonstrations_in_the_United_States_by_size

18. Adam Walker’s new Renaissance discussion.

Prior issue of this newsletter including part 1 of this discussion.

19. “On The Streets Of Minneapolis” charts #1 across the world.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/music/articles/springsteens-streets-minneapolis-no-1-040659232.html

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2 Minute Offense

1. ICE murders another citizen in Minneapolis, 1/24/26. The victim was an ICU nurse, Alex Pretti. He had been using his phone to video events, and then, being a nurse, went to help a woman who had been shoved to the ground by a border agent. The woman and Pretti were pepper-sprayed by several agents. Pretti tried to shield the woman; his last words to her were “Are you okay?” Agents then tackled them both and discovered Pretti carried a gun — legally; video shows he never reached for it; an agent can be seen taking the gun away from him. Pretti is on the ground, subdued. Another agent then appears to shoot Pretti in the back; he slumps immediately after the first shot; 8-9 more shots follow. I have read sworn witness testimony from a doctor who ran to the scene (and was prevented from helping for some time, but eventually was allowed through) that at least 3 of the shots appeared to have been in Pretti’s back.

There is a video of the shooting provided by The Bulwark (below). It’s hard to watch and I don’t recommend it as it is quite upsetting. But if you want to see the truth, there it is. There is an official federal statement which contradicts obvious facts anyone can see; this space will not repeat that propaganda.

Heather Cox Richardson provides a more detailed timeline and follow-up statements, including a heart-wrenching post from Pretti’s parents.

2. Minneapolis rallies, 1/23/26. Tens of thousands of people came out in subzero weather to show solidarity in the wake of the shooting of Renee Good. Hundreds of businesses closed in support. There were rallies in other cites across the country.

3. Davos: Mark Carney’s speech and Donald Trump’s speech. Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney gave a speech last week that is going to go into the history books. Carney outlined a new vision for global order -- one that stops denying the old one is dead, but that is nevertheless opposed to the Putin/Trump vision. This is worth the 14 minute listen (ignore the Q&A aftewards). See also Letters #1 for a link to the full text of the speech.

Contrast this to President Trump’s display the next day. This space will not weary its readers with Trump’s fabrications and “please take away my car keys” gaffes, but here is one reaction from Columbia University historian Adam Tooze.

4. Greenland. Last week began with US demands for Greenland to be handed over to American control. These demands were met with resistance from multiple European countries, and suddenly those demands melted away like the fizz in your favorite carbonated beverage. The Prime Minister of Belgium explained why European spines are stiffening.

5. Secret DHS memo violating 4th Amendment. Thanks to a whistleblower, it was revealed to Senator Blumenthal that a secret memo instructs DHS agents to ignore their training and the law that requires a judicial warrant before entering anyone’s home, and instead to freely enter homes based on warrants they write for themselves. See Letters #2.

6. Latest Polls. The latest New York Times / Siena University polls showed continued failing support for the Trump regime. The graph below shows the movement, but first G. Elliott Morris provides some context for it.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Hidden Objectives

My wargame coming out in a year uses a map that divides the world into areas about the size of Belgium. Many wargames use a world map divides that the world into smaller-scale hexes. For this game, however, I wanted to try to keep player focus on the broad sweep of events, rather than on the operational details of an offensive, so that’s why it uses an area-based global map.

Still, even in an area-based map, when engaged in massive world war-style warfare, there are vital tactical considerations. Naturally, when you attack an enemy-controlled area you do so because you want to gain control of it. But there are times when the enemy’s defense is so powerful that you literally have zero chance of taking control yourself. But that doesn’t necessarily mean you shouldn’t attack. There are other good reasons, including some that are not readily apparent, that may be sufficient reason to attack. Here are a few of those hidden objectives.

• There’s a specific, high-value target piece in the area that you want to destroy.

• You just want to cause enemy casualties, reasoning that you can sustain your own losses in the fight more easily than the enemy can sustain their losses.

• You want to get your opponent used to your attacking at poor odds, so that you create an expectation in the opponent’s mind, which you may be able to exploit later on with a different, and thus surprising, action.

• By bringing pressure to bear in this area, you are forcing the enemy to defend strongly here right now, which may give you a better ability to advance elsewhere against a lighter defense.

• You are trying to get your opponent’s attention focused squarely in this area, so that your preparations and actions elsewhere are either not observed at all, or at least are not given proper attention.

Some combination of all of the above may apply to what is going on in Minneapolis right now. A glimpse into the federal thinking was revealed when Attorney General Pam Bondi overnight sent a letter to Governor Walz making several demands in exchange for calling off ICE. Notably the demands including the state giving up sensitive voter data to the federal government. This is something which Minnesota and dozens of other states have already refused to do, and in the last two weeks, we’ve seen a couple of court cases in which the state’s right were upheld and the federal demand was, for now, stopped.

This certainly seems like the hidden agenda revealed: we’re attacking Minneapolis to extort your state voter data that you,and the courts won’t give us.

Why is state voter data important? Because this could be used to wipe out voting eligibility for large numbers of voters. Such challenges from individual citizens are legal, and the use of this challenge tactic is on the rise in recent years. An article (see Letters #3) explains in detail how this can be done, but here’s the bottom line:

While mass challenges do pose risks for voters and impose burdens on election officials, federal and state protections, if enforced, will protect voters and help election administrators manage challenges while staying focused on the critical task of running free and fair elections.

The key words above are “if enforced.” This federal government could simply choose not enforce any protections that they prefer to let lapse, thus permitting to succeed challenges against voters who are deemed not likely to vote for the administration. Whether or not such attempts are successful, the larger goal is met either way: to muck up voting next fall in the mid-term elections as much as possible in order to:

• Give complicit Republican candidates a better shot of winning, but failing that,

• Give an excuse for the President to take some wildly illegal action such as seizing voting machines (there is no legal mechanism for doing this, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be attempted).

This administration is full of people who may well be crazy, but they are not complete fools. They know that in a free and fair election, they will lose very, very badly — and that in the aftermath of such a loss, these individuals would face the justice system for all of the law-breaking they have been doing. You can be sure they will do anything to avoid that reckoning. This is what 2026 will be all about: can we protect our election integrity sufficiently?

Reconnaissance Mission

In my town, we are now getting a huge snowstorm, so I went to church late Saturday afternoon. I was extremely upset, angry, and distracted from the Pretti murder. I told myself that praying is an active form of resistance, an attempt to change evil behavior. I had to blink back tears of rage, a personal first as I’ve never been angry in quite that way before. The service concluded with my favorite hymn, “City of God.” The words seemed especially poignant and timely.

“Arise from your slumber / Awake from your sleep
A new day is dawning / For all those who weep”

Earlied I had watched some of the aftermath via the Status Coup network, which is affiliated with Meidas Touch Network. One man walked up and asked to be allowed to address the camera. Not going to provide a link to it because I don’t want to endanger the man. His fury was palpable. This is my transcription of what he said:

Sir, can I ask you a question? [Reporter: Yes, sir.] When is it too much? When is it time to overflow? Where’s the line, and when are we done dealing with this? Okay? My question to anyone, including the viewers at home: Where do you draw the line? Where do you draw the line? Because if it’s not here, how many more people have to die? Five? Five of my neighbors have to die? Ten? How many of my neighbors have to die before you’re out here in these streets? How many? How many of us have to be slain in the streets by our government like it’s some kind of crazy, alternate universe? This is not how we were raised! This is not the America we want! How many of our neighbors have to be killed?

The video provided by The Bulwark (see link under Two Minute Offense, above) also included live response from Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. He made clear that Minnesota will not trust the federal government to investigate the murder, and that state-level officials will do so. Minnesota police reportedly were blocked from the crime scene by federal agents, but state lawyers got a federal judge (nominated by Trump) to grant them access, and to prevent the federal officials from destroying evidence, via an emergency temporary restraining order. That was heroically fast legal work.

“The people in darkness / Have seen a great light
The Lord of our longing / Has conquered the night”

In the past few weeks, I have read dozens of stories about everyday Americans saying “This isn’t who we are.” Most often these people are described as not interested in politics, or past supporters of Trump. They may not have liked life under the Biden administration for any number of reasons, but they are much more upset about what is happening now.

The country is boiling. How many of our neighbors have to be killed before everyone rises up — peacefully and non-violently — in objection?

“Let us build a City of God
May our tears be turned into dancing
For the Lord our light and our love
Has turned the night into day”

Taking Action

Pressure on your elected politicans is as powerful as ever. We are seeing that, now that even the laggard Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer is saying that the Senate Democrats will not fund ICE in any way shape or form; this is a stark change from the deal he cut with Republicans just a few months ago to avert a government shutdown. 5calls.org is the easy to use website that will assist you doing this.

And we all need to make the next decision we make be a good one, smart, peaceful, and non-violent. Keep doing that, every day, every decision.

Musing

Part two of the seven reasons to look for a new Renaissance will wait until next week as this missive is already too long, and I’m still too raw over the murder.

Frodo’s Journey: January 25, Shire Reckoning 1419

While the rest of the fellowship recovers in Lothlórien, Gandalf’s week-long pursuit of and fight against the Balrog comes to a dramatic conclusion today. Gandalf the Grey chased the Balrog to the depths of the Mines of Moria, and then back up to the mountain’s peak. Finally, he cast down the Balrog and destroyed it — and his body died in the process. (Painting by Tolkien artist John Howe.)

Featured Scifi Episode

There is a scene from Babylon 5’s “Point of No Return” (season 3, episode 9) that calls to us this week. G’Kar is the exiled leader of the Narn people who fled their enslaved homeworld and are now refugees on the Babylon 5 space station. G’Kar has undergone a personal revelation, which he explains to another Narn:

G’Kar: I have had a revelation, a most profound and substantial one. The kind of revelation that transforms your mind, your soul, your heart, your flesh, so that you are a new creature, reborn in the instant of understanding. … I have tried to write down what I have seen. It may take the rest of my life to explain what I saw in that one singular instant.

To save our people, we must sacrifice our people. We must sacrifice ourselves, our pride, our vengeance, be willing to die by the thousands, by the millions — for one another. The more we fight for ourselves, the more we will lose our selves. We are linked; our fate is like an image caught in a mirror. If we deny the other, we deny ourselves. We will cease to exist.

Narn: And who or what is this other?

G’Kar: The universe itself.

G’Kar’s transformation from angry warrior to visionary of peace is one of the great character arcs of the Babylon 5 series.

Battle Hymn of the Week

The cognitive dissonance about life today is most striking. Trying to go about daily lives. Trying to make a positive difference. And then the news strikes again. It’s crazy.

Aerosmith’s “Toys in the Attic” album came out when I was young. It was one of the first three records I owned (if you’re interested: ABBA, “Greatest Hits,” 1976, and the “Best of the Doobie Brothers,” 1976, are the others). The song of the same name leads off the album, and I woke up today thinking about it. The phrase ‘toys in the attic’ is euphemistic for insanity, much like ‘bats in the belfry.’ Something isn’t right in the upper regions. This is where we are. How many will it take?

Letters From the Front

1. Full text of Carney’s speech.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mark-carney-speech-davos-rules-based-order-9.7053350

2. Blumenthal reveals secret ICE policy.

https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-demands-accountability-for-secret-ice-policy-authorizing-federal-agentsto-enter-homes-without-a-judicial-warrant

3. Brennan Center on voting eligibility challenges.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/protections-against-mass-challenges-voter-eligibility

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2 Minute Offense

1. Minneapolis ICE seige. ICE’s terrorism continues: children are threatened at gun point and hospitalized; vehicles are rammed; citizens and immigrants alike are hauled off (the former released later). See Letters #1 below for a chunk of live video taken on the ground. President Trump threatens use of the Insurrection Act again, and both US military and state National Guard are put on alert (the latter by the governor).

It’s all bad, but the response from those who live there is wide-reaching and powerful.

• Citizen ICE watch patrols to warn their at-risk neighbors in advance if possible or to track who is snatched if not so that family and legal counsel can be provided (see Letters #2);

• Locally, people are helping one another in countless ways. Small businesses are transforming their businesses to deliver free food, medical supplies, and other essential goods for their neighbors who don’t dare to leave their houses; free child care and driving kids to school; and so on (see Letters #3);

• A judge issued an injunction prohibiting ICE from detaining peaceful protestors unless there is clear evidence of criminal conduct, and likewise restricted use of pepper-spray on peaceful protestors;

• A far-right influencer and January 6th participant (who was pardoned by President Trump) tried to hold a pro-ICE rally; his small group was vastly outnumbered, and fled the scene (see Letters #4);

• Governor Tim Walz responded with an address to the people of the state; the Department of Justice responded by announcing an investigation against him and against the mayor Jacob Frey (which one former federal prosecutor described as “total garbage,” see Letters #5);

• This veteran voices the feelings of many (start at the 1:01 mark).

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2. Venezuela update. After five Republicans forced a vote on the War Powers Act regarding Venezula, two of those five reversed course and voted in favort, resulting in the Senate affirming US actions 51-50, with the Vice President casting the tie-breaker (see Letters #6). The first $500 M worth of Venezuelan oil has been sold and the proceeds have been stashed in an offshore account in Qatar (see Letters #7). Lastly, Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado “presented” her medal to President Trump (see Letters #8; how doing this helped democracy in Venezuela is unclear).

3. Fed Chair Jerome Powell under legal attack. (See Letters #9.) Powell responds:

This unprecedented legal action should be seen in the context of the administration’s broader threats and ongoing pressure. … The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation. … Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do with integrity, and a commitment to serving the American people.

4. Greenland. The administration renewed its demands for Denmark to cede or sell Greenland to the USA. Denmark refused, supported by other European Union countries, some of whom sent token troops in person to Greenland. Greenlanders rally in support of themselves, as do Danes. A Congressional delegation tried to work with Danes to calm things down, but President Trump then announced increased tariffs on any country supporting Denmark. EU officials call an emergency meeting, and it seems likely that the trade deal the EU had worked out with the USA last year will be ditched. (See Letters #10.) At least one Republican believes if the administration takes military action, it would result in Trump’s impeachment (cited from Meidas Touch).

5. Construction worker calls out the President. The President toured a Ford plant in Michigan, and a construction worker nearby reportedly took the opportunity to shout “pedophile protector!” at him. The President responded by giving the middle finger (see Letters #11) and dropping 2 F-bombs his way — all of which was caught on camera. A reporter asked the worker about this; he responded as follows.

The worker was suspended from his job, so two friends started GoFundMe campaigns to support him in case of the feared job loss. The two funds combined raised over $800,000 in less than 24 hours, before Sabula shut them down. His union put out a statement offering their full support of his First Amendment rights.

This isn’t merely an entertaining story. It also shows not only how wildly unpopular the regime is, but also how limited the regime’s power is. Imagine if a Soviet worker had done that to Josef Stalin. Would the worker get an $800,000 gift from fellow citizens? Or would he have quietly disappeared, murdered or sent to a gulag? Surely the latter. The Trump regime does not have that kind of power.

6. Redistricting and related legal updates. In California, the proposed redistricting is approved by a state court (see Letters #12). Meanwhile, a Virginia court rejects the GOP’s emergency request to halt a constitutional amendment allowing redistricting; the amendment passes the Senate allowing for a vote in April (see Letters #13). In Oregon, the first ruling came down denying the federal government’s demand for state’s private voting data (see Letters #14).

7. Trump administration openly embraces Nazi propaganda. The Department of Labor recently put out a slogan, “One Homeland. One People. One Heritage.” This is an obvious, and almost certainly deliberate, imitation of a Nazi German slogan: “One People, One Realm, One Leader” (see Letters #15).

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Gathering Intelligence (and Finding None)

Most wargames are “WYSIWYG,” What You See Is What You Get, with no hidden information. This is a terribly inaccurate way to represent real life, but one which game designers and players happily agree on as it makes the gaming experience much more fun.

Sun Tzu knew better:

What is called “foreknowledge” cannot be elicited from spirits, nor from gods, nor by analogy with past events, nor from calculations. It must be obtained from men who know the enemy situation.

Of the various types of spies, the “living agent” is most important (as Tu Yu comments):

We select men who are clever, talented, wise, and able to gain access to those of the enemy who are intimate with the sovereign and members of the nobility. Thus they are able to observe the enemy’s movements and to learn of his doings and his plans. Having learned the true state of affairs they return to tell us.

A modern day example of a living agent made headlines last week. An article by investigative journalist Laura Jedeed detailed how she applied to become an ICE agent last fall, thinking the experience would make for an interesting article.

What she didn’t expect was that she would be hired almost instantly.

The plan, when I went to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Career Expo in Texas last August, was to learn what it was like to apply to be an ICE agent. Who wouldn’t be curious? The event promised on-the-spot hiring for would-be deportation officers: Walk in unemployed, walk out with a sweet $50k signing bonus, a retirement account, and a license to brutalize the country’s most vulnerable residents without consequence—all while wrapped in the warm glow of patriotism.

At first glance, my résumé has enough to tantalize a recruiter for America’s Gestapo-in-waiting: I enlisted in the Army straight out of high school and deployed to Afghanistan twice with the 82^nd Airborne Division. After I got out, I spent a few years doing civilian analyst work. With a carefully arranged, skills-based résumé—one which omitted my current occupation—I figured I could maybe get through an initial interview.

The catch, however, is that there’s only one “Laura Jedeed” with an internet presence, and it takes about five seconds of Googling to figure out how I feel about ICE, the Trump administration, and the country’s general right-wing project.

Despite that, she got a job offer a few days later. This successful infiltration of the ICE recruitment efforts was accidental, and reflects extremely poorly in the Department of Homeland Security hiring process, which Jedeed comments on further in the video below.

See the full article on Slate.com (there is a paywell, but the freely-available portion is substantial and very interesting).

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2026/01/ice-recruitment-minneapolis-shooting.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Here is her interview on MSNOW (7 minutes).

Reconnaissance Mission

There is an ongoing, long-term dismantling of what used to be United States’ exceptionalism. In the urgency of day-to-day crises, this is easy to forget and overlook. But the long-term consequences will be with us for years, probably decades.

For example, there is an international trade realignment underway. Former US trading partners are moving away from dealing with the US due to the ever-changing tariff whims of President Trump, and instead they are forging new deals without America. Last week Canada and China signed a substantial new “strategic partnership” (see Letters #16). Similarly, the European Union and South American countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (the latter deal apparently was 25 years in the making, see Letters #17).

The slash to medical research from DOGE last year was enormous and will have consequence in future bad health outcomes that we cannot begin to predict. The erosion of US ‘soft power’ from the dismantling of USAID will be felt worldwide, with hundreds of thousands of people already believed to have died (see Letters #18).

One podcaster I listened to recently described what is going on with the United States as akin to someone being exposed to radiation. You may not even feel it when it happens, but 20 years later you will find yourself terminally ill long before your time should have come.

Taking Action

Two trusty links are below for donating to immigrants’ rights legal support groups in Minnesota:

https://www.ilcm.org/donate/

https://immigrantdefensenetwork.org/donate/

Also here are some comments from Laura Jedeed from a newsletter about “How To Do Enough” (see Letters #19) just by living the best way you can.

She had me at the heroism framing, but it’s quite a powerful article.

Every culture has a mythology: larger-than-life stories that tell us how the world works and what characteristics make a hero. Ours is a very young culture and our primary mythology is younger still: superhero stories.

There are some great things about our superhero mythology. … But there are messages in these stories that can be harmful, and those lessons are in the air we breathe whether we’re fans of the genre or not. … Our vision of the heroic is very individualistic, and that leads to a lot of guilt. Surely we should be able to fix things, right? If we could find the right words, the right actions, we could fix this: face down the administration and force them to stop. And if we can’t, we’re helpless. Useless. Not enough. You can know intellectually how silly this framing is and still feel it on a deep, personal level, and a lot of people do. It’s something I’ve struggled with. …

Here’s the truth: it takes a lot of people to save the world, with a LOT of different skillsets and talents. There are so many jobs to do, and most of them aren’t very glamorous, and we’ve been taught to view a lot of them as small and inconsequential. But all those jobs need doing, and none of us can do all those jobs alone.

Jedeed encourages readers not to think about what they are not doing, but rather to think about what they are doing — things like donating money, getting involved in local politics, and especially being part of a supportive social circle.

The usefulness of that third thing—being part of a good social circle—is VASTLY undervalued. Americans are more isolated and lonely than they have ever been. It’s the kind of disconnection that makes people forget their fellow humans are human, and also leads to a desperate longing for human connection at all costs. Right-wing events offer a genuine sense of community that a lot of people are starving for. Weimar Germany was also a very lonely place—Hannah Arendt wrote about it extensively.

Not every isolated and lonely person becomes a fascist, of course, but the isolation remains a problem. Looking out at this world and feeling like you’re alone—like the world is going mad and there’s nobody to trust—saps sanity, leads to despair, and can literally kill you. People need people. We’re a social species, we evolved to hunt and gather in groups. Even the biggest introverts in the world need people, albeit in small doses. …

We all bring something to the table. A lot of people take their own skills for granted, especially when those skills are traditionally unpaid labor. Arranging a gathering and making a delicious soup out of nothing is as natural for my friend as it is anxiety-inducing for me; it doesn’t feel like a skill to her. But it absolutely is, and I sure am glad some people have it.

If you want to do more but don’t know what to do, a good place to start is by thinking about what you’re good at and what you enjoy doing. Make a list, if you’re so inclined. Include everything, even if it seems completely irrelevant to our current situation. How can those skills make the world around you brighter and better? How can you use them to build community or give people something they need, tangible or otherwise? …

To everyone reading this (and also everyone not reading this): your worth is not tied to what you can contribute. You have inherent value. You are your own universe of thoughts and feelings that have never existed before and will never exist again. This movement we are fighting does not value human life that falls outside their sick definition of worthiness. Valuing our own lives at a time like this is a revolutionary act.

If all you can do right now is hold on for one more day: that’s The Work. You are doing the work. Thank you for doing the work.

It’s enough.

Musing (Part 1 of 2)

Poetry expert Adam Walker runs a YouTube channel that provides a welcome relief and refocus to matters of the heart and the mind.

He recently posted a video (see Letters #20) asserting 7 reasons why we are at the edge of a new Renaissance in human culture. This may feel hard to believe when you look around at the culture in which everything is monetized and fake. He admits our moment feels bleak:

This is a time when the Academy [his word for higher educational institutions as a whole] are absorbed in its own financial interests right now. Entertainment platforms are smothering culture with the opiods of entertainment. They’re channeling the spiritual energy of everyone into commercial and market interests.

Walker has studied four great cultural movements: the European Renaissance, the Romantic revivial, the American Renaissance, and the Modernist movement. He points out that all of these revivals were principally fostered and created by people who were largely outside the established institutions of power, and that the most important people from those time periods were everyday people doing everyday jobs but who also were able to find the time and energy to build something imaginative and new.

Here are the first three reasons Walker sees us on the precipice of a New Renaissance.

1. Breaking closed circles. Every movement begins when rigid ways of thinking that have hemmed in humanity are shattered by new ideas that expand notions of vitality.

What is our own closed circle? Plagued by intellectual exhaustion and cultural disassociation, people today are beginning to realize that they too are living in a closed circle. Millions of Americans have their attention enslaved by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, TikTok, and are doped up on entertainment and enslaved by online shopping and the broader market. What breaks this circle? One, rest from the machine, and a recovery of a spiritual life excercised, not exploitively by the market, but excercised by nature, literature, community, listening to one’s self, developing a deep interiority and an appreciation of the arts. This is the only thing that will break us out of the enclosed circle that we have been enslaved by right now. Such rest and recovery will nourish our creative output and put us in touch with our own spiritual lives, and that of our cultural traditions, which offers so much more than any streaming platform could.

2. Reviving the Imagination. Imagination is not only what connects our minds and our bodies, but it is also the bridge by which we connect to the eternal.

Although our faculites of the imagination were dulled long before AI came along, it is sufficient, I think, to wake us up to the need for real human art, and more than that, a real engagement with the world of the imagination, which is a real world, from which the most enduring art and social harmony has come.

3. Arts as a Lens of Understanding. Art requires an active participation from us.

Many of us, including the generations of people raised on the smart phone, have our sense of beauty trained by passive consumption of digital media, so that when a painting or a work of art is placed before a young person today, they expect to receive enjoyment from the art without any intellectual or spiritual effort. Real art is interactive; it requires you to play with it, to think with it, to contemplate and meditate upon it.

And that engagement transforms us into pilgrims and creators.

A pilgrim is defined as “a person who journeys to a sacred place for religious reasons.” I love the idea that we are all capable of being a pilgrim in our every day lives.

Next week’s Part 2 will conclude with reasons 4-7.

Frodo’s Journey: January 18, Shire Reckoning 1419

Moria, a name that means The Black Pit, dominated the last week for the fellowship, culimating in the battle at the Bridge of Khazad-Dúm between Gandalf and the Balrog (see the excellent movie clip below).

With Gandalf fallen into the abyss, Aragorn leads the Company to the safety of Lothlórien.

[Aragorn] looked towards the mountains and held up his sword.

“Farewell, Gandalf!” he cried. “Did I not say to you: if you pass the doors of Moria, beware? Alas that I spoke true! What hope have we without you?”

He turned to the Company. “We must do without hope,” he said. “At least we may yet be avenged. Let us gird ourselves and weep no more! Come! We have a long road, and much to do.”

Featured Scifi Episode

“I, Borg” (Star Trek: Next Generation, season 5, episode 23) reminds me why there is hope. The Enterprise finds a crashed Borg ship with one survivor, whom they rescue and save from death. The Borg are highly-sophisticated aliens who assimilate everyone else, famously using the phrase “Resistance is futile!” along the way. The Borg relentlessly attempt to destroy, assimilate, and otherwise annihilate humanity (and other races too) on many occasions.

At first the plan is to use this captured Borg to transmit some kind of virus that would infect the entire Borg collective — that is, to attempt genocide. To everyone’s surprise, however, the Borg begins to comprehend what being an individual means, and shows signs of liking that and gaining friends among the crew. After anguished debate, the Borg is allowed to return to the collective unharmed and with no hidden virus, but that is not to say he is unchanged as a future episode will explore.

This episode reminds us that even in the most dire, life-and-death circumstances, we are capable of rising above fear responses, and finding a better way. In this view, that embodies Star Trek at its best.

Battle Hymn of the Week

An old favorite, the original theme to “Battlestar Galactica” (without the spoken text overlay, just the music — John Williams at his finest).

Letters From the Front

1. Status Coup working with the Meidas Touch Network provided this footage live on the ground in Minneapolis earlier this week.

2. Wall Streer Journal reporting on ICE watching in Minneapolis.

3. Reddit thread on how people are helping each other in Minneapolis.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1qc15wc/acts_of_kindness_among_the_protests_and_city/

4. Local television station WION reports on far-right rally and its opposition, and on legal updates in Minnesota.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=816455784740784

5. Response to DOJ’s investigation of Governor Walz.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5693944-harry-litman-doj-subpoenas-walz-frey-minnesota-immigration/

6. Senate War Powers vote on Venezuela (two articles).

https://apnews.com/article/trump-venezuela-senate-war-powers-2350b162d116090759a7428c4b915eea

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2026/01/15/venezuela-war-powers-resolution-fails-senate-2-republicans-bow-trump-pressure.html

7. Venezuelan oil sold, proceeds stashed in Qatar.
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-venezuela-oil-revenue-qatar-bank-b2901312.html

8. Machado present Nobel medal to President Trump.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/article/machado-presented-her-nobel-peace-prize-medal-to-trump-both-leaders-confirm-224016658.html

9. Federal attack on Jermoe Powell

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-team-ramps-up-attack-feds-powell-with-criminal-indictment-threat-2026-01-12/

10. Update on Greenland

https://apnews.com/article/denmark-greenland-us-trump-4ad99ea3975a8b62d37bd04961feda55

EU to hold emergency meeting.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-greenland-tariffs-eu-trade-rc

EU reconsiders US trade agreement over Greenland

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-greenland-tariffs-eu-trade-rcna254584

11. Presidential behavior?

About the GoFundMe donations to the construction worker:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gofundme-pages-raise-money-ford-165325848.html

12. California’s redistricting update.

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5647442/midterm-elections-redistricting-trump-california

13. Virigia courts block GOP’s attempt to stop the amendment process

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/court-rejects-gop-request-to-block-virginia-redistricting/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_-pAUP-cbh6EHVQBQgOV5j6VQJitcAFbeF-4gtQdLXEMg08CcTmfQtnVCYI8qYjs0Dhcrb_VqnX-RwxKXpmSnTNtxHJg&_hsmi=398375182&utm_content=398375182&utm_source=hs_email

Virginia senate advances the amendment.

https://virginiamercury.com/2026/01/16/virginia-senate-democrats-advance-mid-decade-redistricting-amendment/

14. Oregon court rejects federal demand for voting data.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/report-court-rejects-bid-for-oregon-voter-rolls-in-first-ruling-on-doj-data-grab/?utm_campaign=13200977-Free%20Newsletter%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_eR1j_YpU7XRMEdWpHEfmCcRehO0121D9W3v02b9fRQtovEfXKllmkYkm0xUBOI4YBAfMFseSHzgheK3h4TbMsAV27AA&_hsmi=398823987&utm_content=398823987&utm_source=hs_email

15. Department of Labor’s slogan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/16/trump-labor-nazi-slogan-social-media.html

Nazi Germany’s slogan, from the British Imperial War Museum.

https://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/29118

16. Canada and China forge a new strategic partnership.
https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/01/16/prime-minister-carney-forges-new-strategic-partnership-peoples

17. EU and South American countries sign trade deal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/eu-mercosur-sign-trade-deal-after-25-years-negotiations-2026-01-17/

18. USAID impact.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-e&channel=entpr&q=how+many+deaths+has+the+cancellation+of+usaid+caused

19. Laura Jeeded, “How To Do Enough.”

Firewalled Media

How To Do Enough

There’s a type of comment I hear on a fairly regular basis, both online and in everyday life. I got such a comment under my last article about fighting back against ICE and the Trump administration generally, and I hope the commenter won’t mind if I use it as an example…

Read more

3 months ago · 58 likes · 11 comments · Laura Jedeed

20. Adam Walker, “Seven Signs of thew New Renaissance.”

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2 Minute Offense

1. Murder in Minneapolis. 37 year-old Renee Good, mother of a 6 year old, was killed in her car by an ICE agent on January 7, 2026, amidst an ICE operation in Minneapolis. Numerous videos of this circulated, but these have now been removed by host companies because they were too graphic. I saw a couple of them within hours of the event, before they were taken down. This is what I saw. Good’s car is on the road in the midst of an ICE operation. The car was surrounded by 3 or 4 ICE agents. She was instructed by one agent to move the car. She stared to do so. A different ICE agent was standing near the front left of the car — contrary to law enforcement training (see Alt National Park note below). You could clearly see the car wheels pivoting away from this agent; the agent never flinched at the car’s movement, nor did he move out of its path, because he didn’t need to. In a second as the car was starting to bypass him, he was now at the side of the car, and fired into it several times — also contrary to law enforcement training, as the car then accelerated out of control and crashed nearby (luckily no one else was hurt). Reports on the ground are that ICE agents refused to let someone who identified himself as a doctor assist Renee Good. Soon she was dead.

The government released the ICE agent’s body own cell phone video, which shows Good saying rather nicely “I’m not mad at you” to her soon-to-be murderer, and the ICE agent shouting “F’ing bitch” after killing her (see Letters #1). Heather Cox Richardson provides a detailed account of this video in today’s note (see Letters #2), which is quoted in the Recon Mission below.

2. Spotify boycott works. Spotify stopped running ICE recruitment ads at the end of 2025, and publicly confirmed this the day after Renee Good was killed (see Letters #3). Unconfirmed data I’ve seen suggest that Spotify’s market value peaked at $785B in July 2025, and had declined substantially to $539B by the start of 2026. That figure still represented strong annual growth, as Spotify began 2025 worth $458B, but it is possible the boycott had a chilling effect.

3. House and Senate actions last week. Some opposition from Republicans.

• Senate approves motion to hold vote on war powers; 5 Republican senators crossed the aisle (see Letters #4).

• 3 year ACA passes House; 17 Republican House members crossed the aisle to pass the ACA subsidies (see Letters #5); it is unclear if the Senate will take up the measure.

• Senate puts up tribute plaque to 1/6/21 law officers who protected them; Senate majority leader John Thune and the Senate unanimously approve the hanging of the plaque to memorialize the officers who defended them on January 6, 2021 (Letters #6).

4. Venezula aftermath. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez appears to have assumed power, leaving the Maduro regime intact (apart from Maduro). There are reports of street gangs grabbing anyone who appeared to be celebrating Maduro’s capture. This was never about democracy or the Venezuelan people. It was about getting a friendly, pliable dictator in place. It was also possibly a Russian PsyOp, as Venezuela, while now more deferential to the USA, is likely now also even more embedded in Russia’s political orbit than ever.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: When Does a Calculated Gamble become Strategic Overreach?

In any game, there comes a time when you can see a path to winning, but inevitably it entails some risk. If my forces do this operation and succeed, the game will be securely in hand; but if I fail, my forces will be worse off than if I had done nothing. What do I do?

Many historians argue that the moment Nazi Germany invaded the USSR in June, 1941, Nazi Germany made a fatal error and was already firmly on its way to losing World War II right then and there. They will cite details like Soviet production capacity which, when combined with that of the British (let alone the Americans, who were as yet neutral), would outpace the economic power of Nazi Germany (even bolstered by Italy and other European Axis countries allied with Germany).

The same thinking can be applied to tactical operations. After a successful first year attacking Soviet Russia, Nazi Germany was at the gates of Leningrad in the north, Moscow in the center, and had overrun the Ukraine in the south. In 1942, Germany did not just consolidate and expand their gains, however; they took a huge gamble and tried to seize the entire south of the USSR in order to capture the vast oil reserves in the Baku area near the Caspian Sea, just north of Turkey and Iran. This offensive failed, and led to the disastrous losses at Stalingrad, after which the USSR was never seriously threatened again and was soon counterattacking successfully.

It is easy to say that Nazi Germany should not have invaded the USSR, or, having done so with surprising early success, should not have risked all on their 1942 southern offensive. Experienced wargamers don’t make the latter mistake.

Such a view fails to understand the real-life fascist mindset, however, which can be summarized by the phrase “Win or Die.” The situation in May 1941 for Nazi Germany was good (and much improved compared to before the war had begun) — but even then Germany still had economic shortfalls (especially not enough oil) that made its situation inferior to each of the other big global powers: the British Empire, the USSR, and the USA. From Hitler’s point of view, the only hope was to use their superior army to conquer the USSR and then use its vast natural resources to build up its forces even more to take on the British and Americans.

If you are in a “Win or Die” mindset having Nazi Germany invade the USSR and risk all to conquer it in 1942 is actually quite logical. The challenge for all of us is getting into that mindset. We who grew up with a representatitve government known for its incremental, moderate changes over time, have a hard time truly comprehending the “Win or Die” mindset because such thinking is anathema to anyone who values human life or democracy.

Later in World War II, two years after failing to seize southern Russia, and even after D-Day in 1944, Nazi Germany launched one last major offensive known as the Battle of The Bulge (see Heather Cox Richardon’s YouTube page for a new video series detailing this). This was one last chance to “persuade” the western Allies that they should accept terms on the western front, and let Germany go fight the Russians. The point is that Hitler had not given up his objectives in the slightest even though the circumstances of the war had turned against Nazi Germany. He was still gambling, trying to find a way to conquer Russia, even as the Russian and western Allied tanks pressed into Germany. He would try anything, and never give up.

The conclusion to the question of when does a risk become overreach, then, is only one that can be answered after the fact. If Nazi Germany had somehow seized the oil and had conquered the USSR, then any calculated risk taken would have been worthwhile to Nazi Germany. It is only after the calculated risk fails that the gamble is seen as the fatal flaw that leads to defeat.

This is the mindset that many members of the US federal government are now in. During the ramp-up to the beginning of the second Trump term, I read a quote (which I can’t find, sorry) by one the Project 2025 architects who said, “This is the best chance we’re ever going to get” to impose their agenda on the USA. They were absolutely correct.

Some in the power in the administration such as Stephen Miller (and if you doubt this, listen to the video of him, see below) display that same “Win or Die” attitude of Nazi Germany. They will keep attacking and trying to win on their terms no matter what and with every possible lever of power they can grab. They will never look at their situation and say “Gee, things are bad, I’d better negotiate or compromise.” That is not how that mindset works.

It is our job to remember this, and never to yield or compromise, because no deal can ever be made with fascists.

I was lucky enough to persuade my family to watch one of my favorite World War II movies last week, “A Bridge Too Far.” This movie recounts in faithful detail how the British and Americans tried to end the war in one massive attack in the fall of 1944. A favorite scene from early on is below, showing how the attack has already gone wrong just hours after it began — and the nearby lunatic asylum escapees probably did know something that Sean Connery didn’t.

Reconnaissance Mission

This is the week that historians will look back at and say: This is when the veil was dropped. This is when those in control of the US government openly embraced fascism. It wasn’t just the inital actions, awful as they are; it was the justifications of the actions said afterwards.

• Venezuela. Snatching a foreign head of state is lawless, but it is not unprecedented in US history. But the usual justifications are “we had to do it for global safety,” but below the reason is simplyl “we did it because we could and therefore should.”
  The Justification (Stephen Miller, see Letters #7): “We live in a world in which — you can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else — but we live in a world, in the real world, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.” (I refuse to quote Miller’s last 3 minute screed from this interview; suffice it to say that Nazi propagandist Goebbels would be proud.)

• Renee Good. Anyone who saw one of the videos knows the following justification is all lies.
  The Justification (Kristi Noem, see Letters #8): “[Good] proceeded to weaponize her vehicle and she attempted to run a law officer over. This appears as an attempt to kill or cause bodily harm to agents, an act of domestic terrorism.”

• President Trump asserts his power has no limits other than himself. (See Letters #9.) “The only thing that can stop me is my own mind, my own morality” said President Trump when asked by the New York Times last week whether there were any checks on his power and his ability to act (see short video below).

With respect specifically to the Renee Good murder, yesterday the administration released the cell phone footage from the ICE agent (Ross) who murdered her (he made sure to capture it all on video). From Richardson’s note today:

What is truly astonishing is that the administration thought this video would exonerate Ross and support the administration’s insistence that he was under attack from a domestic terrorist trying to ram him with her car….

In the case of the murder of Renee Good, the shooter and his protectors are clearly so isolated in their own authoritarian bubble they cannot see how regular Americans would react to the video of a woman smiling at a masked agent and saying: “That’s fine, dude. I’m not mad at you,” only to have him shoot her in the face and then spit out “F*cking bitch” after he killed her.

The thread that runs through both is the assumption that an American exercising their constitutional rights must submit, without question, to a white man holding a gun.

This is the larger meaning of federal agents from Immigrations and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Patrol in U.S. cities. While they are attacking primarily people of color, the message they carry is directed at all Americans: you must do what the Trump administration and its loyalists demand.

These are the acts of people who believe in a “Win or Die” mentality. There is no morality. There is no compromise. There is only victory — which is subjugation of everyone else — and especially subjugation of all women.

Taking Action

It’s not too late to find an ICE Out For Good protest. More than 1,000 of these events were planned for this weekend, many for Sunday or later.

https://www.mobilize.us/

Musing

Humans are social creatures, as numerous studies have demonstrated. We all need to have connection with other humans in our lives, and in this fragmented and angry time, we need it today more than ever. This seems especially true for men, who don’t seem very good at connecting with one another unless alcohol or endorphins are involved (as one podcaster aptly put it recently).

In conversing with a friend last week, he noted that in prior generations there were many organizations that encouraged folks to get out and get together: bowling leagues, Elks, Knights of Columbus — think of anything that Rob Petrie (from the Dick Van Dyke show) would have known about and probably been involved with.

What happened to all of these is an interesting academic question, but more important is to take action to establish connection and re-connection. Friends, family, anything. We are social creatures, and the more we put ourselves in siloes, the unhappier and angrier we become. Big tech firms have found profit in promoting our worst instincts. That can change in time, but only if we promote our best, every day, relentlessly.

Find your people, and connect with them. You will create meaning and happiness.

Frodo’s Journey: January 11, Shire Reckoning 1419

The fellowship attempts to cross the Misty Mountains through the Redhorn Gate. They are thwarted by an enormous snowstorm (Samwise: “Snow’s all right on a fine morning, but I like to be in bed while it’s falling.”) and are obliged to give up the attempt. It takes the light feet of the elf Legolas, and the strong arms of the men Boromir and Aragorn to find a way safely down off the mountain. As they continue to journey south, they are beset by Wargs, evil wolves, who chase them down. After a pitched battle, Gandalf resorts to some first class wizardly to drive the Wargs off. The bruised but determined fellowship continues on its journey towards a deep, and dark way through the Misty Mountains called Moria.

Featured Scifi Episode

Do androids dream? In “Phantasms” (Star Trek: Next Generation, season 6, episode 7), the android Commander Data has been experimenting with a program that allows him to dream — with bizarre effects. His dreams are outlandish, very strange images revolving around consumption (for example, Counselor Troi is represented as a cake and gets sliced up).

It turns out that Data’s dreams are actually perceiving some interphasic critters that are attached to the humans and are slowly devouring them. The crew eventually restores order and saves themselves.

However, the image that affects me the most from this episode is one that is not terribly important to the plot. In one of Data’s dreams, Commander Riker has a straw sticking out of his head, and Dr. Krusher is using it to syphon out . . . something . . . from his brain.

I think of this image at times in everyday life when yet another ongoing pay-to-use service is being forced upon me, especially in the world of technology. It was not long ago that you could buy software and you’d own it forever; now you have rent the program monthly. You would buy a printer, and buy more printer toner only when needed; now you have to subscribe and pay a monthly fee. Buy a cassette tape, or record, or CD, and the music was yours to listen to forever. Now you subscribe to a monthly streaming service for music.

We’re all in Riker’s situation, getting our lives, our attention, and our fortunes, syphoned off by large businesses.

Battle Hymn of the Week

This song came out a couple of weeks after my mom had passed in January 2021. I was crying 30 seconds into it just from hearing the lovely, haunting, introductory piano portion. I could feel the pain and loss through the music already. “A Bond of Union” (from Robert Berry using the band name 3.2) is his own tribute to his mother. The lyrics describe how he came to understand her love and sacrifice, and how that love is still with him even after she has passed.

This week I remember this song, not for myself, but to offer it in tribute to Renee Good’s 6-year old child who lost a mother way too young. Here’s a photo from Good’s car’s glove compartment, which was full of stuffed animals.

Letters From the Front

1. Video from the ICE agent.

2. Heather Cox Richardson on the video.

3. Spotify boycott as reported by Newsweek.

https://www.newsweek.com/spotify-not-currently-running-ice-recruitment-ads-after-campaign-expires-11341021

4. Senate advances war powers resolution

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-advances-measure-restrict-trumps-power-use-military-force-venez-rcna252892

5. 17 House Republicans join Democrats to pass ACA subsidies.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-vote-obamacare-subsidies-extension-after-9-republicans/story?id=129026545

6. Senate approves plaque.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/01/08/congress/senate-unanimous-approves-jan-6-plaque-law-enforcement-00717799

7. Stephen Miller on CNN about the Venezuelan operation

8. Kristi Noem about the killing of Nicole Good.

9. Outtakes from the Trump - NY Times interview:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000010632450/trump-international-law-greenland.html

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Thanks for sharing the journey, and here’s some lighter fare to start. Like Calvin and Hobbes, we need to make a new path, and let’s try to remember and believe that change is indeed invigorating. In some parallel universe, we may be sitting around, sipping our umbrella-laden drinks, but in this one, each and every one of us gets to be a big damn hero.

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2 Minute Offense

1. US armed forces grab Venezuelan dictator Maduro. On January 3, 2026, US forces grabbed Maduro and his wife and brought them to New York to stand trial. Maduro thwarted the will of the Venezuela people in the 2024 election (it is estimated the opposition candidate won two-thirds of the vote, see Letters #1), but this action wasn’t done to restore democracy. As President Trump quickly made clear (see Letters #2), it was about control of Venezuela’s oil. Moreover, the treachery-within-treachery reason is that this action was calculated to undermine and to destroy the principles of world order that have kept the world out of global conflict over the last 80 years.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris summarized the action as follows:

Time will tell how the Venezuelan people and remaining government and military respond, as well as how the US public responds (initial US polls are against this action 34%-41%, but with a high proportion, 25%, undecided; see Letters #3). See the Recon Mission for more.

2. Jack Smith’s testimony under oath. Congress was obligated to release the transcript and recordings of Smith’s testimony, so it did so on New Year’s Eve in hopes of minimizing the attention paid to it. The clip below (2.5 minutes) sums it up.

Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 election and to prevent the lawful transfer of power.

3. National Guard cannot stay. The Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that the National Guard could not remain against the wishes of the state in Chicago, effectively ending their presence there as well as in Los Angeles and Portland (see Letters #4).

4. The last election of 2025. Another huge over-performance (27% swing) by the Democrat in Iowa’s state senate.

5. Kennedy Center. Known for its shows, the Kennedy Center is the latest place that Trump regime has tried to add Trump’s name to. This effort resulted in many acts cancelling their planned shows there, including a last minute New Year’s Eve concert cancellation (see Letters #5).

6. Closing the book on DOGE. DOGE, the Elon Musk-led effort allegedly to cut ‘waste, fraud, and abuse’ from the US government instead ended up costing money while causing hundreds of thousands of deaths globally (see Letters #6 and #7). That’s quite a legacy.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Writing Complicated Game Rules

My 10-years-in-the-making monster wargame, Lightning Strikes, will be sent off for printing soon. The game tries to subsume all world events from 1914-1954 into one coherent set of game rules. Built on the massive foundation of World in Flames (the world’s largest board game, per Guinness Book of Records), this game has tried to add to WiF’s combat details a layer of politics that captures the rise of authoritarians in the 1920s and 1930s (Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, et al), and the conflicts that arose against and among them.

So you won’t be surprised to hear me of all people say: it is possible to write very complicated rules and to do it very well. But I have no illusions of perfection, either. The example of World in Flames over the last 40+ years is clear: a game that detailed and complex must have room to change and evolve over time for the simple reason that humans are very creative and clever, and will always figure out new ways to bend any situation to their private advantage, no matter how carefully the rules were initially devised.

The example of World in Flames gives me hope for Lightning Strikes because it too may hopefully get the chance to refine, grow, and improve over time, as players enjoy it, and also find or create holes in the rules. That is the essence of the designer ←→ gamer interaction, and I relish the forthcoming experience. This can work beautifully if everyone buys into the idea that “we are all making the game better” and anyone whose favorite strategy is no longer legal anymore learns to live with the loss of that ploy. It doesn’t work so well when gamers prioritize winning at all costs and are willing to cheat or otherwise deliberately bend the known intent of the rules to gain an advantage over other players. Those are the gamers who, when I see that behavior, I will not play with a second time.

Attempting to write the U.S. Constitution must have been a similar experience — and much worse so, because they all had to find their way to hard-fought common agreement (whereas I can simply make red-pen decisions because I have final say over everything).

For the USA, I gave the Founders and Framers enormous credit for what they did, and especially for the foresight that the Constitution would need regular updating. They were right, and that is part of the foundation of the problems we are facing today, in my opinion. As a nation, we lost our ability to update the Constitution about 50 years ago when we became too polarized to get a two-thirds vote on anything (that’s the usual hurdle for amendment). Whether this happened because politicians felt their career prospects were better off by sticking with their party no matter what, or perhaps due to the rise of money in politics undermining the sense of shared human caring and investment in the success of the country as a whole, and/or other factors, who can say, but likely it is all of that and more.

The result is that we have a government that doesn’t serve the people and country as a whole, but rather the privileged and wealthy. I am hopeful that as a nation we are on the road to national re-invention, but it is going to be very hard road, and I doubt that 2025 will be the worst year on it. But I do believe that we can write better rules than what was done before, and that eventually, we will do that. I never would have started Lightning Strikes 10 years ago if I believed otherwise.

Reconnaissance Mission

Historian Timothy Snyder had a great summary of the implication of the attack on Venezuela (see Letters #8). Here are a few excerpts:

1. American intervention in Latin America. … This time around, there is no pretense that the goal is democracy. Nicolás Maduro and his allies stole the 2024 Venezuelan election, but that very real crime is not what the Trump people are punishing: the Trumpists prefer the essentially fictional concept of “narco-terrorism.” Venezuela has a legitimately elected president: Edmundo González. There is no sign that he figures in Trump’s plans. Trump dismisses the courageous activist María Machado, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, as “a nice woman” who lacks popular support. …

Yet the imperialism does not seem to be very well considered. … Trump is offering Venezuela’s oil to American companies, and the money to be made as an explanation for the whole operation. But there is little profit in Venezuelan oil in the short run; huge investments would be necessary in the long run. This would in turn require political stability. It does seem, at first glance, that the oil companies believe in this.

There is much to be said for democracy. One of the powerful arguments in its favor is continuity: that it offers a chance to move on from a calamity. The obvious thing to do now in Venezuela would be to hold elections.

2. The Second Iraq War. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was a turning point for American power and principle. It killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis. It was based upon lies, which undermined American credibility and weakened American influence. It absorbed huge amounts of American money and attention, creating a window of opportunity for China to climb to global prominence….

This time around there is no talk of democracy, but there is the similar belief that simply removing a bad actor, Maduro, will predictably create the conditions for a desired change, a Venezuela that America “runs.” But in Venezuela the army has not actually been defeated, and indeed Maduro’s regime shows no sign of changing. … [Trump say Maduro’s vice-president], Delcy Rodríguez, can run the show for the Americans. She is in office thanks to a stolen election; it now appears that she is being offered the backing of American violence as well as that of the Maduro secret services and civilian gangs. … The Maduro regime holds power through violence and intimidation. Its remnants do not become more legitimate when backed by American violence and intimidation.

3. The Russian invasion of Ukraine. It was striking to hear Donald Trump describe the extraction of Maduro as an “extraordinary military operation,” since this is essentially the same language that Vladimir Putin used in his speech announcing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. One wonders what term the translators have been using in all of those long phone calls Trump holds with Putin. …

The American government made no effort to justify its extraction of Maduro in terms of international law, which is an obvious Russian intellectual victory -- even if the Kremlin itself might be displeased by the consequences in this particular case. Less obviously, but more profoundly, the indifference to law is a victory for China. …

A third powerful argument for democracy is predictability. Putin was surprised when Ukrainians resisted his invasion, and so he had to continue it, at huge and pointless cost to his people. If it becomes clear, as it surely must, that the United States extracted Maduro in order to have its own version of Maduro, then it will face resistance of all kinds, and much of it will be unpredictable. The United States has entered now into a logic of escalation, in which every surprise in another country will have to be greeted with ever more military force.

4. The fascist wars. Fascist regimes were defeated in 1945, but they were, while they lasted, legitimated by war. Fascists claimed that their dictatorships were justified because their political opponents were in fact in the service of foreign enemies and international conspiracies. Germany, Italy, and Romania fought wars in order to bring the external and the internal enemy into alignment. It was much easier then to oppress the internal enemy when the population was at war.

No one can be sure what Trump is thinking, but it is a reasonable guess that his purposes in extracting Maduro from Venezuela were domestic. …

Trump and his advisors seem to want the political gains of fighting a war without actually having to fight one. They want the short cut to fascism, claiming a huge victory right away, while tweeting about the enemies at home. But fascism requires not quick operations but real combat that endangers and thus engages civilians. Even assuming that Trump’s base and Americans generally support this Venezuela action, which is doubtful, it will be forgotten within days -- unless it is escalated.

Putin was willing to follow the fascists of the 1930s into full-scare war combined with fascism at home. Trump would no doubt like that result; but it is unlikely that he is willing or able to go that far.

Trump is weak at home, and he can be stopped -- so long as the domestic political logic of foreign intervention is recognized and turned against him. This act of war is more about regime change in the United States than it was about anything in Venezuela. It only succeeds as fascism if Americans allow it to do so. If journalists and judges recognize the connection between foreign adventures and domestic authoritarianism, an act of violence abroad will discredit rather than accelerate our own transition towards authoritarianism. And with some work and some luck, we will get to our own next elections.

Taking Action

Marc Elias of the Democracy Docket (see Letters #9) repeated a note from last January, “10 Things We Can All Do to Protect Democracy.” The italicized part is my response in 2026.

1. Stay engaged. We can’t look away, however hard that is.

2. Help Democrats. The ones that are fighting.

3. Don’t do Trump’s work. Don’t repeat lies, distortions, and distractions. Assert the law and behaviors that are moral and support human dignity.

4. Don’t grade on a curve. Don’t look to put meaning behind the awful things said or done by this regime. Just call it wrong. Expect better from the opposition, but call them out when needed, too.

5. Believe in the courts. Don’t let the frequent complicity of the Supreme Court undermine the reality that lower courts have very much tried to hold the line against this regime.

6. Beware of false attacks. We’ve seen many, and we’ll see more. Take heart from how Jack Smith met his attack: with blunt, detailed truth.

7. Support independent media. The upsurge of many new voices has given us all hope. In one year my news-consumption has changed from being 30% based on independent media to about 80% based on it simply because it is more trusty.

8. Use your town square. We all have a voice, and someone who will listen to it. Use it with courage and confidence!

9. Prepare for a long fight. This year will be at least as hard as last. Savor the wins, and bear with the losses.

10. Don’t give up hope. The bottom line is this: we only lose if we say “I give up.” As long as we refuse to submit to authoritarism, there are simply too many of us to control. Take heart and hope from our growing strenght of numbers — and it is okay to look forward to the day when victory eventually comes!

Musing

On Tuesday this coming week, we mark the 5th Anniversay of January 6, 2021, the day when President Trump tried, and failed, to overturn the election results of 2020. As with other momentous public events in our private lives, you may remember exactly what you were doing on that day, which was less than one year into the global pandemic and long before vaccines made public gatherings the norm again.

While I recall watching with my immediate family in horror as the afternoon unfolded, the main reason I will always remember this day has nothing to do with politics. This was the day my brothers and I buried our mother, Elaine Marie (Vassalotti) LeLacheur, who had died peacefully at the age of 91 a few days before hand.

The morning ceremony was very limited; due to the pandemic only immediate family were allowed into the Catholic Church and to the graveside. I will always remember the great kindness of the priest, who had known my mom since he was a kid (his mother and mine knew each other from Church way back when) and had faithfully supported and attended her in her last years after he’d become our local pastor. My brothers, our beloved spouses and children, were all there to witness the day in proper fashion.

But I couldn’t help grieve that this was not the sort of ceremony that would have been most fitting to celebrate her life. She talked to everyone, and loved being part of a huge extended family of cousins, nieces, nephews, aunts, uncles, as well as having numerous friends from all stages of life. It was a great loss that none of these people were allowed to be there on that day.

In the years that have passed, I have settled on a simple approach to remember the wisdom of her life that would have caused Mom to glare at me a bit, but I’m going with it anyways: “I learned how to live by listening to my Mom’s favorite F-Words.”

What were they? As an orderly person, she would approve of my listing them in reverse alphabetical order. As it happens, that also marks a kind of ascending order of importance to her, too.

Mom’s Top 7 F-Words

1. Fun. Mom was a great believer in education and seriousness of purpose. At the same time, she was always engaged in the world around here. For example, she was an avid golfer for many years, and joined many local groups such as the Women’s Club, nightly bowling leagues, and so forth. For years, my folks would spend winter vacations in Florida for fun, and after my Dad retired, they took trips either with friends they knew, or made new friends along the way.

2. Friends. Mom was serious-minded in many respects, but she also loved planning and hosting parties for the wide circle of friends. I can still remember the feeling of being very young, safely snuggled under the covers late a night, while a rollicking party of my folks’ friends was going on in our basement (which conveniently had a bar). In later years when I would drive her on an errand, I learned that I needed to triple the amount of time the errand would have taken me, not just because she walked a little slower, but mostly because she was inevitably going to start chatting with everyone she encountered, hearing their stories, and not infrequently offering some good advice.

3. Food. Coming from an Irish-Italian family, Mom’s cooking channeled the Italian side. Many of my cousins will recall listening to WBCN on the day when our grandfather was buried and hearing the parody song “Cook like an Italian” (to the tune of The Bangles, “Walk Like an Egyptian”) which was so fitting to his legacy, and it is good to recall it here for my Mom too. She also made her own tomato sauce and meatballs from scratch, and every holiday involved us hosting large swaths of family, usually from both sides combined, at out house, principally supported by Mom’s fabulous cooking.

4. Flowers. Mom had an encyclopedic knowledge of flowers, their names, how best to grow and display them. She always had an outside garden (even in her last years, when others tended it under her instruction) that dazzled with its colors and variety. Winters were the time for the grow lights inside, preparing for the plantings to follow. While there were many flowers in her garden, I always think of the pink petunia’s.

5. Finances. Mom was really smart. She was (if I’m not mistaken?) the first in her family to graduate from college, and was a teacher for several years before becoming a full-time mother. No one embodied the phrase “A penny saved is a penny earned” more than her. I learned in later years of her financial wheelings and dealings during the 1980s when she would regularly scrounge up any savings she had socked away and dash into Boston to buy the latest treasury bonds (which were offering enormous interest during the Reagan years). But at the same time, she also taught us that pinching pennies was unwise, if it meant one got poor quality good: buying something once and never having to buy again was the most efficient way to be. While my brothers and I undertook widely differences professions, one thing we share is Mom’s passion for efficiency.

6. Family. The happiness and successes of family were always Mom’s pride and joy. She defined her family widely in this regard, doing her best to help many outside our immediate nuclear family as well. As a kid I remember her as a parent who was involved in everything my brothers and I did. She was always there at sports, recitals, etc., and was ready to help (or crack the whip if needed) when homework assignments beckoned. As the next generation unfolded, she (along with my dad) was equally attentive to all of her grandchildren, attending concerts, shows, parties, as long as she was able to do so. Being with, and doing for, family was her greatest motivation at all times.

7. Faith. I know of no one — not even the priests I have known — who had a stronger faith than my Mom. I often thought that the Catholic Church really missed out with her, as she ought to have been a clergy or have some other high ecclesiastical position. While I try to carry on her church-going tradition, I do so by choice (e.g., I choose to believe), whereas my Mom was a true believer in the best sense. She never, ever doubted in the fundamentals of her faith, not even when bad things happened — those were human foibles and mistakes, but God still was unwavering at the center. I’d estimate she attended in person, or via t.v. in later years, 15-20,000 Catholic masses.

I hope that these 7 F Words can be a guidance to all, as they have been for me. Below is a photo of my parents that was recently unearthed; it is the youngest I’ve ever seen the two of them together, possibly before they were even married. Such kids! So much of life lies before them! And I know that I speak for everyone in my family when I express gratitude for the love and support they gave us all. January 6 is always your day, Mom.

Frodo’s Journey: January 4, Shire Reckoning 1419

The fellowship continues its long, night-time journey south of Rivendell. On January 8 they reach the region known as Hollin, where elves formerly lived. Legolas notes that only the stones in that country remember those elves, murmuring “deep they delved us, fair they wrought us, high they builded us; but they are gone.” It is here that Aragorn first expresses a feeling that they are being watched, and that even more caution is warranted This will prove prophetic starting next week.

Featured Scifi Episode

I watched Star Trek’s “The Tholian Web” (season 3, episode 9) last week, and what struck me is that the story isn’t about the Tholians or their web. The story is about how we behave and make decisions admist pressure, fear, and uncertainty.

The Enterprise has run into a weird space-time situation, finding a lost Starfleet ship in disarray, with all of its crew dead, apparently by killing each other. While onboard it, they discover that ship is blinking out of phase from their reality. Captain Kirk orders the rest of the away team back to the Enterprise and safety immediately, but is himself marooned when the ship vanishes before he can beam back.

Plans to rescue Kirk are immediately imperiled by the appearance of the aggressive Tholians. The Tholians are a game clock. The web they are weaving gives the Enterprise a limited time window in which they must act before they too will be hopelessly lost (as well as unable to rescue Kirk). To make matters worse, the disease that destroyed the now-vanished ship is gradually infecting the crew of the Enterprise too. What is Spock, Kirk’s second in command who is now in charge, to do?

As every Star Trek fan knows, Spock represents the cerebral aspect of humanity. Likewise, Dr. McCoy is our emotional side. With time short, the stakes sky-high, and no clarity on the best course of action, Spock and McCoy are initially at loggerheads as to what to do. Then Bones remembers that Kirk had left them a video to watch together, should Kirk ever die (4 minutes).

At his best, Kirk is the synthesis of will and heart, of intellect and emotion, of Spock and McCoy. Following Kirk’s advice to trust one another, Spock and Bones work together, saving the Enterprise from the Tholian web, and rescue Kirk too.

Battle Hymn of the Week

An image I often have of the MAGA administration is that of a marble going around a big circular funnel. As it rolls around the funnel’s top, it takes a long time to complete one full, wide circuit. But as gravity takes hold, the marble circles lower and lower, where the funnel is smaller and smaller, leading to ever-faster complete circuits. At last, just before the bottom, the marble will circle so fast that you can barely make out its revolutions — and then poof! It drops through the hole in the bottom, and the whole experience is done and gone.

The video from The Fixx, “One Thing Leads To Another” captures that feeling for me.

Letters From the Front

1. 2024 Venezuelan election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election

2. NBC reporting on the US grabbing Maduro, and Trump’s remarks.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-strikes-run-country-transition-military-rcna252044

3. Immediate responses to US action in Venezuela.

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

Trump Starts Underwater In Initial Venezuela Poll, US Oil Industry Not Rushing To Return, Chaos Reigns This Morning

Morning all. We got our first poll on Trump’s claim of seizing Venezuela and like almost every other major initiative of this first year he starts out underwater…

Read more

3 months ago · 167 likes · 51 comments · Simon Rosenberg

4. National Guard pulled from cities.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-ends-national-guard-deployments-los-angeles-chicago-portland/

5. Kennedy Center cancellations.

https://newrepublic.com/post/204800/donald-trump-kennedy-center-cancel-major-concert?utm_source=Bluesky&utm_social_post_id=637765538&utm_campaign=SF_TNR&utm_social_handle_id=did%3Aplc%3Ag6zrpwmibpkb6nkfweuns3mr&utm_medium=social

6. Final assessment of DOGE, per the Boston Globe.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/12/23/nation/elon-musk-doge-disrupt-save-little/?utm_campaign=Globe_Twitter&utm_social_post_id=632322160&s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter&utm_social_handle_id=95431448

7. How USAID shutdowns has killed people globally.

https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/usaid-shutdown-has-led-to-hundreds-of-thousands-of-deaths/

8. Timothy Snyder on Venezuela.

Thinking about...

Venezuela: The Precedents

Now that the United States has extracted Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela, it might help to consider four precedents. No event of the moment is exactly like any episode in the past. But in recalling history, we can see elements of the present that will otherwise be shrouded by propaganda or emotion…

Read more

3 months ago · 1332 likes · 62 comments · Timothy Snyder

9. Marc Elias, Democracy Docket, 10 Things We Can All Do To Protect Democracy.

https://www.democracydocket.com/opinion/10-things-we-can-all-do-to-protect-democracy/

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2 Minute Offense

1. Supreme Court Says ‘No’ to National Guard in Illinois. By a 6-3 vote. It’s not a final decision yet, but a welcome support to a lower-level judge’s ruling from October. It sounds like a red line has been drawn on the posse comitatus act, which states that the US military cannot be used against its own citizens. (ICE is not governed by the act, but the National Guard and regular military are; see Letters #1.)

2. Views on US Healthcare. From a poll in November, 93% of Americans agree that todays’s Medicare and Medicaid should continue at a bare minimum. 66% want to see an active government role in providing health care to all Americans, with the largest single share, 35%, preferring a single-payer national system (see Letters #2).

3. CBS Pulls “60 Minutes” report on CECOT (the El Salvador prison being used by ICE). The excuse given was that the White House had not commented on the story. If accurate, that means by doing absolutely nothing, the White House is compelling CBS’s compliance. That’s wrong. Our northern friends clarified the situation:

4. Trump regime bombs enemies in Nigeria. Lots of countries have Christians not doing well (the ~35 million in the Ukraine for example) but Nigeria also has lots of oil and rare earth minerals. It’s either that or nothing says “Christmas” like bombing someone? (See Letters #3.)

5. Congress sets modern record for lack of accomplishment. Despite the fact that the Republicans control the House, the Senate, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: The Trap

The best wargamers I’ve played against simply don’t make mistakes. I wish I was one of them — at my best I’m close — but I admit that I’m not quite in that league. So I try to compensate by sprinkling in unexpected and creative strategies.

My favorite such concept is the trap. The trap is most effective when both sides know exactly what the other one wants to do. Then I will appear to do exactly what my opponent had wanted me to do — but for my own reasons that, hopefully, my opponent has not considered, or at least has not considered as deeply as I have.

An excellent and familiar example is from The Lord of the Rings. After the good forces led by Aragorn and Gandalf save Minas Tirith, they have to decide what to do next. Their choices are twofold:

• Defend the strong places they have already saved in Rohan, Gondor, and elsewhere, in the hopes of building up strength to defeat Sauron military, as they had at the end of the Second Age; or

• Attack Mordor; this would not be an attempt at military conquest, but rather a massive distraction to give Frodo the best chance to destroy The Ring.

However, to appreciate the trap, we need to understand Sauron’s point of view.

Sauron wanted to conquer and control Middle-earth. He’d tried once before in the Second Age, with massive armies augmented by his having and using The Ring, the distillation and perhaps amplification of his sorcerous power. Sauron, however, was defeated by the military might of his enemies, who destroyed his armies and then Isildur forcibly cut The Ring off his finger.

No one who loses a war, and tries war again, wants to lose the next war, and especially not in the exact same way*. In the Third Age, Sauron correctly judged that his foes had grown weaker and their alliances had mostly dissolved. But he had lost The Ring, too. What should he to do in order to achieve his objective? He also had two choices:

• Use his military advantage to batter his weakened enemies into submission quickly, before they could unite and effectively oppose him; or

• Be patient; search for the The Ring and hope to find it before his enemies awakened to their danger, re-united, and made themselves into a force that was able to defeat him military again.

The enormous risk to the latter strategy, that Sauron fully appreciates, is if one of his great and powerful enemies decides to take The Ring and use it, Sauron will certainly be destroyed forever. And those great and powerful ones are still out there; Elrond and Galadriel were a risk, but fortunately they had apparently retired to their elf-lands and weren’t going to be a big nuisance anymore (no really knows why, but there it is); Saruman had been successfully seduced to the dark side and was defeated by the good forces; however there was still Gandalf, and worst of all, this long-lost heir of Isildur — with Isildur’s sword that had cut The Ring off the first time! — that unexpectedly showed up on the scene after Sauron had spent a thousand years trying to kill all of Isildur’s descendents. Both Gandalf and Aragorn were very serious threats. They either had The Ring or knew where it was — Sauron was certain of that. And their armies had just won not one — that loss in Rohan was alarming, but not yet terrifying — but two completely unlikely and unexpected victories. Sauron’s divided enemies were suddenly re-uniting all over again. All they needed to do was for one of them to use The Ring and it was curtains for Sauron.

Having been in decision-making situations like this myself, my view is that while Gandalf understood the choices and risks, but he only partially appreciated Sauron’s mental focus. Gandalf understood that Sauron’s view was: “If I were Gandalf or Aragorn, I would seize The Ring, put down my rivals, and then destroy me and rule Middle-earth forever!” Gandalf did not fully understand the other tape also playing in Sauron’s head: “I can’t screw it up just like last time! And if I don’t act decisively right now, that is exactly what seem to be happening.” (I think Tolkien did understand that.)

And so a trap was laid, a trap that Sauron could not refuse because it offered him a way out: if he killed those potential Ring-wielding enemy leaders, then even if his opponents had better armies and control of The Ring, there won’t be a leader who could wield The Ring effectively enough to challenge Sauron. That was the worst case scenario that Sauron could foresee, and even in that case, Sauron would win if he had killed Gandalf and Aragorn first.

Wise fool. The problem, as Gandalf knew, was that Sauron never considered that the good forces were trying to destroy, rather than to use, The Ring. This is where the trap can succeed: if your enemy has a great need that can lead to a blind spot that can be exploited.

Warning: the downside of a trap like this one is that it is enormously high-risk: you’re wagering the entire game on its success. As has been speculated, Sauron could have withheld some forces to protect Mount Doom, while still sending enough military power to have a good chance of crushing Gandalf and Aragron. Sometimes we just don’t see what we cannot see.

* ~ An illustrative quote when my World War II German attacks into France were going very badly one game: “I’m fighting World War I again and I’m losing it again, argh!” It didn’t end well.

Reconnaissance Mission

Three very unrelated tidbits. Firstly is a quote from a live Heather Cox Richardson chat (see Letters #4):

The fantasy world that Trump is trying to construct and convince us on based on forty years of Republican Party rhetoric is under attack by reality, and even people like the Supreme Court are starting to recognize that this ain’t gonna work. So at the end of the day, when I look at where we are today, I am watching — I hate to say this — but it feels like I am watching the end of the television show that just went on too long. The writers got lazy. People got bored. And now what we’re going to have to do is fix all the crap that we didn’t do because we were watching television all the time.

Secondly is an outtake from Prof G. (Scott Galloway)’s predictions for 2026 (see Letters #5). Mostly he focuses on financial markets, but this view on synthetic companions was striking.

Third and lastly, I offer my two favorites from the Contrarians’ Cartoons of the Year (see Letters #6 below for all of them). The first is posted at the top of this letter, and here is the second:

Taking Action

King Charles’ annual Christmas address was quite lovely, emphasizing that all the great faiths provide us with “resilience in the face of adversity, peace through forgiveness, simply getting to know our neighbors, and by showing respect to one another, creating new friendships.” May all harken to that spirit. (The address below is 1.5 minutes long.)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce86x326y08o

Musing

As the Trump regime looks for distractions to keep people from looking at how ineffective and corrupt they, the Golden Fleet was one of the more creative attempts. A new naval battle fleet, how exciting! As an added bonus, the very concept of a battleship is very much pre-FDR / 1930s in its thinking. No matter that for the last 90 years aircraft have demonstrated that big warships are just big targets waiting to be sunk. (And drones make this even more true.) However, since the administration does not pay attention to facts about how tariffs work economically, why should it heed details about what works militarily?

Let’s go. Let’s build them. The plan says 20 to 25, but why stop there? I’d rather tax dollars be wasted on this boondoggle than on jailing innocent people (immigrants, citizens, and otherwise). At least these warships will be able to be scrapped for something useful at The End of All of This. We can’t say that about spending on ICE or occupying our own cities. It’s the best idea this administration has had yet!

https://www.goldenfleet.navy.mil/

Frodo’s Journey: December 28, Shire Reckoning 1418

Recap: The Fellowship of the Ring set out from Rivendell three days earlier.

The Misty Mountains are shaped like a curved bow aimed at the east. As a result, as the nine members of the company (with Bill the pony as their beast of burden) walk southwards, they are also walking towards the mountains too.

Each day the land looked much the same as it had the day before. Yet steadily the mountains were drawing nearer. South of Rivendell they rose ever higher, and bent westwards; and about the feet of the main range there was tumbled an ever wider land of bleak hills, and deep valleys filled with turbulent waters. Paths were few and winding, and led them often only to the edge of some sheer fall, or down into treacherous swamps.

They will travel two weeks and approximately 250 miles through this desolate land.

Featured Scifi Episode

Star Trek: Deep Space 9’s “Sacrifice of Angels” (Season 6, Episode 6) is a monumental episode, wrapping up lengthy storylines about the Dominion, and all kinds of characters, relationships, and choices. As is often the case, with the world around them in flux, long-time enemies learn to work together against common foes; and some characters find deeper reserves of courage than anyone thought they had (including themselves).

The military battle has another great example of a trap (see Pithy Wargaming Tips above). The Dominion has an enormous and unbeatable fleet of starships on the other side of the wormhole near Deep Space 9, but their access through said wormhole is blocked by a minefield. All the advance guard of the Dominion and their allies on this side have to do is to destroy that minefield (which they will automatically be able to do in a few hours), and they will win.

Both sides know the stakes. Commander Sisko, leading the DS9 allies, tries to trap the advance guard Dominion forces by offering themselves as bait to weaken the advance guard’s defensive line. The advance guard Dominion forces appear to accept that bait, but have reserve forces that they believe will allow them to win anyways. Who is playing the subtler game of “treachery within treachery within treachery” here? At first it seems the Dominion is, as their reserves hold the line after all. But then it appears that Sisko is, as his forces, are suddenly aided by Worf and the Klingons and advance to protect the minefiled. But they are too late, and the minefield is destroyed!

Has the Dominion won? Because Deep Space 9 is a terrific series with long-laid and well-crafted storylines, there are even deeper forces in play that end up deciding the issue. The trap battle that the Dominion really did win is, one might say, narratively outclassed by an even more powerful story arc — you’ll have to watch the series to learn about that (if you haven’t already, you can thank me after you do).

Below is a <2 minute clip of the exciting conclusion to the trap battle.

Battle Hymn of the Week

Saw “Hamilton” for the first time ever last week. My higher sensibilities would share either the song “One Last Time,” about President Washington giving up power after two terms, or the finale “Who Lives, Who Dies, Who Tells Your Story” in which Hamilton’s widow Eliza’s many accomplishments after his death are accentuated. Both brought tears.

But my higher sensibilities are taking today off, so you’re getting the comedy piece, “You’ll Be Back” starring King George, who kindly and lovingly reminds the colonists,

You’ll be back, time will tell,

You’ll remember that I served you well

Oceans rise, empires fall,

We have seen each other through it all

And when push comes to shove

I will send a fully-armed battalion to remind you of my love

A bit of a contrast with the today’s King Charles.

Letters From the Front

1. MSNBC on the Supreme Court.

https://www.ms.now/deadline-white-house/deadline-legal-blog/supreme-court-doesnt-let-trump-deploy-national-guard-in-chicago

2. Pew Research Center’s recent survey on US healthcare.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/12/10/most-americans-say-government-has-a-responsibility-to-ensure-health-care-coverage/

3. Wikipedia on Christians by country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_by_country

4. Heather Cox Richardson live, 12/23/25.

5. Prof. G. (Scott Galloway)’s 2026 predictions.

https://www.profgalloway.com/2026-predictions/

6. The Contrarian’s Cartoons of the Year.

The Contrarian

Cartoons of the Year

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2 Minute Offense

1. Discharge petition on the ACA passes the House. The discharge petition is a way for House of Representatives members to force a vote even if the House Speaker doesn’t want one. In the last 20 years before 2025, this tactic was used three times (see Letters #1). It’s been used three times in the last two months with Republicans defecting to the Democratic positions. The latest last week was a petition to force a vote on extending the ACA tax credits that were revoked by the Republican budget earlier this year, which will cause health insurance premium costs to skyrocket for millions of Americans. The House will have to vote in early January; whether the Senate takes the matter up is unclear (see Letters #2).

2. Epstein files update. A few were released after large portions were heavily blackened out. This is not in compliance with the law. Analysis is beginning on the bits that were released. More releases are expected in the future. But the general perspective from numerous media sources was “Yeah, we didn’t really get them and we didn’t expect that we would.”

This ongoing story will be continued next week as more analysis of what has been released — and not released — comes in.

3. Jack Smith testifies. Jack Smith, the lead federal prosecutor in the cases to charge Donald Trump for crimes around January 6, 2021, didn’t back off his position one bit, asserting that President Trump engaged in a “criminal scheme” in 2021 to prevent President Biden from being installed into office per the law (see Letters #3). The Republican congressman who demanded Smith testify under oath also refused to let the testimony be made publically; Smith’s lawyers have called for a public reckoning.

4. Brown, Brookline, and the Reiners. Even in a country tragically accustomed to violence, this past week was exceptionally bad with shootings apparently by the same individual at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, and in Brookline, Massachusetts. The shocking murder of beloved actor and director Rob Reiner and his wife produced an outpouring of near-uniform* affection and appreciation rarely seen for any public figure (*except for President Trump’s vile comments).

One article recounted the experiences of the trauma nurses at the hospital near Brown that took in the mass casualties. Their swift, effective, and heroic action likely saved additional lives. The last quote of the article aptly summed up the reality of the entire year of 2025 (see Letters #4).

[Afterwards, the trauma nurse] sat alone in her office. She finally felt the weight of the last several hours.

“I had a good cry. I felt all the feels,” [she] said.

“And then I came back ready to fight some more.”

5. President Trump addresses the nation. It’s been called the Festivus Speech for the long list of grievances recited (per the Seinfeld t.v. show’s tradition). For a quick summary, watch the clip below from “Hogan’s Heroes” (2 minutes) in which the prisoner Newkirk (played by Richard Dawson) imitates the Fuhrer by saying: “It is possible that you have heard that Berlin is in ruins, Hamburg is a shambles, and so on. I order you not to believe these things even if they are true!” This is essentially what the President said: “I order you not to believe what you are seeing and experiencing because everything is really in great shape —thanks to me — so stop believing otherwise!”

6. Venezuelan update. Security and legal expert Asha Rangappa offers a nuanced view on why a war with Venezuela may serve the regime’s interest. Not merely for the oil, but also to create an excuse for the mass removal of Latinos. Boat strikes continue (late-breaking: and a second capture of an oil tanker), and sabres are rattling, but no “war” in the traditional sense has yet begun.

7. Susie Wiles interview. The White House chief of staff doesn’t usually make news. But Susie Wiles did with an interview published recently in Vanity Fair (see Letters #5). Below is a screen shot selection from the article that garnered a great deal of interest. Wiles claimed her quotes were taken out of context, but didn’t say they were incorrect.

8. Weekly summary. From the Meidas Touch Network editor.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Using The Lull

A lull of inactivity can sometimes occur in a wargame or in a real war. Take as an historical example the so-called Phoney War (see Letters #6) in the early stages of World War II. After the fall of Poland in September, 1939, almost nothing happened in Europe for 6 months. There was some activity, such as the British imposing a blockade on Germany (a la World War I), and some of the British ships being sunk in response. But the lightning land offensives that characterized the first year of the year had this huge time gap after Poland and before the German attacks to the west.

In a wargame, most often such a lull is part of one player’s plan. Perhaps the player needs time to reorganize and redeploy troops to new theaters of action, or wait for new and needed reinforcements to arrive from the factories.

That’s the usual reason for a lull in a wargame, but it isn’t the only reason.

Most of my fellow gamers think of me as a very fast player. However, as the famous Star Wars phrase goes, there’s always a bigger fish, or in this case, there’s always a faster wargame player. I know, from bitter experience, that if I try to keep up with a faster player’s pace, I will make mistakes that I regret, and that I wouldn’t normally have made.

So what to do? Slowing down your play speed is an option, but in a limited time environment (like an in-person gaming convention lasting several days, as these monster games tend to do) this is a frankly rude thing to do and breaks the social contract. Another option that on rare occasion I have used, is just to keep playing, but don’t try to do anything noteworthy for a few turns while one’s brain attempts to catch up with the evolving situation. Instead of bringing the heat and trying to make something happen, I fall back on bringing the cool, and try to make sure I don’t make any mistakes — trusting that I’ll be able to get back full-bore soon enough.

Reconnaissance Mission

Similar to the wargaming lull, in the real-life political sphere we can frequently see a defensive attitude play out. Politicians are very skilled at telling the story that benefits them, rather than discussing topics that do not work in their favor. They deny and deflect all the time, and sometimes, it isn’t just because they are avoiding a certain topic, but rather they just aren’t ready to say anything about anything, and prefer to say “No comment” to avoid the risk of saying something stupid.

As this space has noted, dictators almost never have that kind of restraint. They got the power that they got because they took chances, and having succeeded at those chances (for whatever actual reason), usually believe they have special skills and/or divine support that everyone else lacks. So why worry about a mistake? Or about waiting? Or about asking someone else’s advice or opinion?

The ancient Greek term hubris has come to embody this delusional mentality. One of the outcomes of the political year 2025 is that the MAGA regime led by President Trump has dropped nearly every pretense of normalcy. They are going to do what they are going to do, regardless of what public opinion, or the law, has to say.

As we look ahead to 2026, it is likely that this collective hubris will continue, causing great harm to many — and also likely that it will lead to more mistakes, as hubris almost always does. The trajectory over 2025 started out horribly, but by year’s end, the narrative of public life is not merely contested by the opposition, it is starting to be shaped by the opposition, with their views filtering out into wider realms of society. While proclamations by President Trump still carry weight among his billionaire adherents, fewer and fewer ordinary people, it seems, give credence to what he says.

For example, starting last spring Senator Bernie Sanders, often accompanied by House members such as Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez or Maxwell Frost, went on anti-oligarchy tours touting, among other things, higher taxes on the wealthy. It’s not exactly a catchy phrase, but people in red states responded enthusiastically to what they were saying.

Fast forwarding to the present: a few days ago the last Republican presidential nominee before Trump, Mitt Romney (who lost to Obama in 2012), called for higher taxes on the rich (see Letters #7), citing an October Gallup poll that 63% of Americans want to increase taxes on the wealthy. That is most certainly not the narrative that the Trump regime wants to promote. In part, Romney’s opinion may well be a downstream effect of efforts made by Sanders and many others to get people to think about restructuring society for the benefit of the many, not just for the few.

The link at #7 below has a poll, which I took, and per its results, 73% of respondents want to increase taxes on the wealthy.

Taking Action / Musing

I always think of the Glossop Method around the holidays. The Glossop Method figures prominently in “Honoria Glossop Shows Up” (Jeeves and Wooster, Season 4, Episode 3, based on the P. G. Wodehouse novels). Dr. Glossop explains it to Bertie:

Dr. Glossop: The Glossop Method is based on the patient being given an excess of whatever it is he most desires. It may be alcohol, companionship of the opposite sex, or as in Lord Biddlesham’s case, food. The patient will eventually revolt from the sheer immoderation of it and voluntarily deny himself.

Wooster: Ah, sort of get it out of his system?

Glossop: Precisely!

Wooster: Is it successful?

Glossop: It is theoretically impeccable, Bertie, and extremely popular.

Wooster: Yes, yes, I should think it would be.

(The full episode is below; the clip above starts just after the 11 minute mark.)

This is particularly keen advice to follow at this time of year, when it can rain food and snow drink as we celebrate with family and friends. I’m not sure my own attempts at pursuing the Glossop Method as a diet have met with success, but I trust to the doctor’s theory, and can attest to its popularity as well.

Relying on the sheer immoderation of it all to turn an adherent away from their own worst excesses rebounds in my head in other ways from time to time. In the political realm, I wonder if the sheer immoderation of this regime’s bald-faced vile behaviors will ever catch up with them? They trounce the law whenever it is convenient, and publicly insult well-regarded murder victims. By now everyone knows what is happening. Now it seems they’re no longer troubling to make even faint efforts to hide or disguise what they are doing.

Will the Glossop Method save democracy in America? Will the sheer immoderation of this regime finally cause Americans to say: “No more, we will voluntarily deny ourselves the diet of lies that you feed us! We want no more of the your stealing, violence, and incompetence either!”

It’s a crazy notion, but I’m not sure it’s wrong.

Frodo’s Journey: December 21, Shire Reckoning 1418

Looking ahead a few days, the next stage of the story is about to begin. In the text, Tolkien never says the exact date that the fellowship leaves Rivendell, but the appendix reveals it was December 25th (“The Company of the Ring leaves Rivendell at dusk.”) It wasn’t a coincidence that the devout Catholic writer had the birth of this effort to save the Middle-earth symbolically timed with Christmas Day.

In the final days at Rivendell, Elrond revealed his plan for Nine Walkers to repesent the Free Peoples, including Gandalf; Aragorn and Boromir for Men; Gimli the Dwarf; and Legolas the Elf. Pippin and Merry volunteer to grab the last two spots, and Gandalf unexpectedly supports them, saying

I think, Elrond, that in this matter it would be well to trust rather to their friendship than to great wisdom. Even if you chose for us an elf-lord, such as Glorfindel, he could not storm the Dark Tower, nor open the road to the Fire, by the power that is in him.

Elrond agrees, though reluctantly as he had planned to send those two back home to warn the folk of the Shire.

On the day of the departure, Elrond gives a ream of good advice, and expresses empathy in advance for how some in the fellowship might react to the unkown fears and dangers ahead. Gimli and Elrond then engage in a testy battle of aphorisms, with Elrond taking the final word.

[Elrond] “The further you go, the less easy will it be to withdraw; yet no oath or bond is laid on you to go further than you will. For you do not yet know the strength of your hearts, and you cannot foresee what each may meet upon the road.”

“Faithless is he that says farewell when the road darkens,” said Gimli.

“Maybe,” said Elrond, “but let him not vow to walk in the dark, who has not seen the nightfall.”

“Yet sworn word may strengthen quaking heart,” said Gimli.

“Or break it,” said Elrond.

Did Elrond take to heart Gandalf’s point from a few days earlier,, and perhaps change his mind, that friendship was going to prove more important than power?

Featured Scifi Episode

Star Trek: The Next Generation’s two-part episode “Redemption” (season four, episode 26, and season 5, episode 1) is one of the best in the series and covers enormous ground including an insider’s view (one of the first ever) of the Klingon Empire, thanks to Worf temporarily resigning from Starfleet to rejoin his brother to help fight the Klingon civil war. The episode also includes a complicated Romulan scheme to influence said civil war led by Tasha Yar’s daughter; Yar was a Starfleet officer from season 1 of Next Generation who died, and who plainly did not have had an adult daughter of Romulan lineage — time travel and the multiverse rescue the story from this plot difficulty.

What struck me the most in a recent re-watching of this, however, was the sub-plot involving the android, Commander Data. When Captain Picard assigns his officers to assume command in other smaller ships in the vicinity of the Enterprise, he initially omits giving a command to Data. Data points this out, and wonders if Picard believes an android is not capable of command? Picard realizes and admits his unconscious error in overlooking Data, and assigns Data to lead one of the ships too.

Many of that ship’s crew are not comforable following an android’s orders, fearing that the android will not act with sufficient regard for biological life. But in the end, it is Data’s ship which uncovers key evidence that reveals the Romulan plot, and forces the Romulans to withdraw.

The story makes clear that if Data had not been in command of that vessel, using his unique skills, the Romulans would have succeeded. What Data’s standing actually is in the Federation is a long-running theme in the series: is he just nuts, bolts, and wires, or does he have standing like a sentient, biological creature? But in this case, it is worth highlighting not only Data’s creative solution to a problem, but also that the fallibility of Captain Picard was essential to their success. Picard made a mistake, and when told so, admitted it and fixed it. And the good guys won.

Battle Hymn of the Week

From “A Year Without A Santa Claus,” the snow and heat miser song always is fun.

Letters From the Front

1. Wikipedia about the discharge petition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition

2. Associated Press reports on the ACA discharge move last week in the House.

https://apnews.com/article/health-care-subsidies-aca-speaker-johnson-1087a9f64168d66b2acf9082af16c253

3. Jack Smith’s testimony.

4. From a print copy of The Boston Globe, December 19, 2025, “Horror at Brown Spilled into ER.”

5. The Susie Wiles interview, Vanity Fair.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/trump-susie-wiles-interview-exclusive-part-1?srsltid=AfmBOop_lzbRi7JGyFM-DR9WTmbKEjGCCwd51pUQ9yzLUGbNbiVPkHBj

6. The Phoney War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War

7. Mitt Romney’s New York Times article, reported on by TheHill.com

https://thehill.com/business/economy/5657367-romney-proposes-wealth-tax/

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2 Minute Offense

1. Indiana Rebukes Trump Gerrymandering. Despite massive pressure put on by President Trump and the federal government — Indiana’s Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith noted “President Trump has made it clear to Indiana leaders: if the Indiana Senate fails to pass the map, all federal funding will be stripped from the state” — Indiana said a loud NO anyways. (See Letters #1 and #2.) The final vote was 31-19 against, but more importantly, the Republican senators voted 21-19 against, with the 10 Democratic senators also voting against.

—> This may be the first *Republican* vote going against Trump’s wishes in 2025.

2. Missouri voters try to stop the gerrymander. Missouri’s government is already captured by MAGA and wants to follow Trump’s wishes, but the people are pushing a referendum to stop the planned gerrymander there. A 300,000 signature petition (far more than the 106,000 needed) should trigger a state-wide vote per the Missouri Constitution (see Letters #3). The compliant state government is trying to avoid this. Stay tuned.

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3. National Guard told to leave Los Angeles. See Letters #4.

4. Kilmar Abrego-Garcia released. He’s finally back home (see Letters #5) after being snatched and deported without good cause; the government will surely continue to come after him.

5. Caribbean Piracy. It’s not enough that the US is sinking boats and shooting survivors. Now we’ve seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. Attempts are being made (see Letters #6) for legal justification, but it looks like piracy.

6. USA’s revised security statement. The National Security Strategy document openly aligns the USA with Russia against NATO. Will it change the world as intended, or is it a statement only of MAGA’s dream? This view (see Letters #7) says don’t be too quick to draw a conclusion.

7. Paramount tries hostile takeover of Warner Bros. and CNN. Trump has all but promised to tip the scales in Paramount’s favor so that CNN (part of the Warner Bros. portfolio) can be turned into FOX2 (see Letters #8). Time will tell if this attempt to defeat the higher Netflix bid will succeed.

8. Epstein Files. They are supposed to be released this week, Friday, December 19th. Three courts around the nation have ordered release of Epstein-related information, and another trove of photos dropped last week (see Letters #9).

9. Massive Disapproval. The below numbers (-25 overall and -54 with Independents) would sink a normal presidency. It’s not enough to stop a would-be dictator, but it helps. (See Letters #10 for more recent polling data.) The US voting population is made up of about one-third each of Democract, Republican, and Independent voters. What bears closest watching is Republican approval, which is high but has ebbed from early in 2025 when it was in the 90s. If Republican approval falls below 70%, that will be consequential (see Reconaissance Mission below for more).

Pithy Wargaming Tip: Gaining Power Through Pain

This space has talked about speed bumps in a wargame before — the idea of deliberately sacrificing some of your own troops to save others. A brilliant recent article by historian Timothy Snyder coined the phrase “Self-Terrorism” (see Letters #11) which takes a different tack on the concept of self-sacrifice.

The standard rubric for a fascist is that you need (or need to make up) a crisis, an internal enemy, and an external enemy. The Trump regime exudes crises daily, and have attacked many internal enemies. Snyder notes that the logical next step is to find an external enemy to go to war with and to quickly occupy and conquer (like Germany did against Poland, France, and others in the opening stages of World War II), and then to tie the internal enemy to the external as a way of cementing total power.

However, Snyder concludes that the Trump regime is ill-suited to carry out a successful land attack elsewhere (read his article if you want to know how he comes to this conclusion). So assuming they recognize that is not a good option, what will the MAGA regime do instead?

This is where the self-terrorism comes in:

Self-terrorism means dropping one’s guard, provoking others inside and outside one’s own country, waiting for the act of terror, and then exploiting it. The Trump administration has indeed removed barriers to terrorism, thereby creating the conditions for attacks on and within the United States. The resulting violence against one’s own people, can then be used as a pretext to further oppress them.

Shootings in the USA are just one example. The MAGA play would be to allow and encourage more of these, and then falsely label MAGA’s opponents as the responsible parties and use this as an excuse to destroy opposition.

Snyder concludes:

Self-terrorism need not work. We can be alert to the use of the undocumented as an emotional key to a politics of us and them. We can be aware that special forces initially tasked with deportation can evolve into a racial police organization on a national scale. We can see that the opportunistic exploitation of violence is a predictable part of this brand of politics.

The past never repeats, but it does instruct -- and it instructs everyone. The people who want authoritarianism in America know that seizing on the emotions around political belonging can lead to turmoil and regime change. And the people who want democracy in America can see the pattern and halt. Simply being aware of all this is a big part of success. The last few chapters of On Tyranny dwell on these situations.

Aspiring American authoritarians will only win if they are allowed to do so. None of this has to happen. Both of these terrible possibilities, land war and self-terrorism, are signs of weakness rather than strength. They can be prevented, but only if we name them, and use their horror as the first step to describe something much better.

The below image seemed related.

Reconnaissance Mission

One writer who didn’t make my football team list of sources that I follow is Chris Armitage. He writes outrageous things that I usually think unrealistic or wild, even by today’s bizarrity, but I like that he challenges my thinking. A little while ago (see Letters #12) he wrote a thoroughly-research piece analyzing all of the times over the last 10 years that commentators have claimed Trump is finally finished — all of which have proven false. This really rang true. Nearly every day you can easily find pundits claiming that Trump’s latest outrage will finally spell his doom.

One day that may prove correct, but in the meantime, we need to understand what these claims are all about. Armitage cites three reasons for these repeated, and repeatedly inaccurate, claims:

1. Incompetence. The prognosticators are wrong, perhaps showing too much optimism or applying analogies that don’t work with Trump, alongside not enough practical analysis and skepticism.

2. Self-serving media complicity. Trump’s being in power generates headlines, clicks, and attention, all of which is great for the media business. Saying anything at all about Trump — that’s he strong, that he’s finally done, or anything in between — all feeds that model.

3. Pressure valve release. It feels good in a cathartic way to read “Trump is finished” even if it isn’t true. It permits us to get on with our daily lives, and may even make us more accepting of a reality that we should not be accepting of at all.

Armitage concludes:

If you’ve spent the last decade consuming media predictions about Trump’s imminent demise, you haven’t been receiving information. You’ve been receiving a product. The product makes you feel like accountability is coming. The product gives you permission to feel ok, even as things get worse. The product lets you believe that someone, somewhere, is handling this.

No one is handling this. No one is coming to save us. The people who told you the walls were closing in are still making the same predictions, in the same confident tones. They will collect their paychecks whether they’re right or wrong. They face no consequences for failure because failure is not a bug in their business model.

We’re the only ones who face consequences. And we’re the only ones who can change anything.

Earlier in the article he asked: “What would actual collapse look like? Republican approval below 70%. Primary challengers gaining traction. Elected Republicans voting against Trump priorities rather than expressing ‘concern.’ Fox News and talk radio turning against him.”

This is why the Indiana Republicans voting against Trump’s demand for a gerrymander — Indiana like most states is already gerrymandered, but it could be made worse — is one of the most consequential moments so far in the opposition to this MAGA presidency.

Many people are extremely angry at all Republicans. The feeling is understandable, but the view here is that the people of the United States are going to need everyone, including a portion of Republicans who have and may still support President Trump, to work together as part of a big tent coalition that fights for democracy. An opposition group of Democrats and Independents alone against unified Republicans is merely an ongoing partisan struggle. But a unity group of all three political sectors that rejects fascism in favor of renewing democracy is the path that leads to a rebirth and to a brighter future for all of us.

Taking Action

This is a good year to support new media sources. Give the gift of unbiased information to those you love. First on my suggested list is Democracy Docket and Marc Elias. He’s the lawyer who won nearly every case after the 2020 election in favor of Biden, and is always on the frontline of every pro-democracy legal battle, including arguing a case in front of the Supreme Court last week.

Musing / Featured Scifi & Fantasy Thoughts

Among many far worse grievances this year, one thing that annoys me greatly is that the baddies claim to be fans of J. R. R. Tolkien. Did they actually read “The Lord of the Rings”!? Now this week I read that Stephen Miller is a big Star Trek fan. Again, what the heck, did he think the Romulans and the Dominion were the goodies!?

One must conclude they just didn’t understand. This reminded me of a favorite movie, “A Fish Called Wanda,” and specifically the character of Otto, played by Kevin Kline. Otto is a truly bad guy who beats up people for fun. But he claims to be enlightened and a philosopher, famously repeating the line “Don’t call me stupid!” to anyone who rightly points out that he is, in fact, stupid.

Below is the scene where Jamie Lee Curtis spells it out for Otto, explaining that she’s known sheep that could outwit Otto, and has had dresses with higher IQs than Otto.

In the above, Otto agreed to apologize to John Cleese (whom he’d dangled out a fifth story window); below is the clip where he tries to give that apology. Otto is Otto: he ends of walloping Cleese on the head and kicking him when he’s unconscious on the ground — while saying he’s sorry.

Otto is a great stand-in for the MAGA worldview: vicious, cruel, and with unwarranted self-confidence that they are right. So, inspired by Curtis, I will try to point out a few things to help them, specifically with respect to Tolkien and Star Trek.

1. The point of the Lord of the Rings was not that goodies need more power. It was that the lust for power (and the despair that follows when you can’t get enough of it) turns goodies like Boromir into baddies.

2. When Captains Archer, Kirk, and Picard go back in time and see Nazis they are not trying to help the Nazis win.

3. The Palantír in The Lord of the Rings were used to deceive and daunt others. Naming your company Palantír is a big flashing neon light saying “I’m a baddie.”

4. The goodies learn to communicate with one another. Darmok and Jalad at Tenagra. His arms open wide. The baddies twist words like the aptly-named Wormtongue.

5. Sauron and the Borg were the baddies. You can tell because they like to control, hurt, and kill others. For anyone unclear on this point: wanting to control, hurt, and kill others — especially when you enjoy it — makes you a baddie.

6. The Free Peoples would have lost Minas Tirith if not for a woman (Eówyn) and a halfling (Merry) having the courage to stand against the Lord of the Nazgúl. The big strong warriors were necessary but insufficient.

7. Kirk was a powerful, decisive man, but no matter how many torn shirts he got, he always had help from Spock (his intellect), Bones (his compassion), Uhura (his ability to communicate), and others. Always.

8. Lastly, the Ring wasn’t destroyed because the goodies dominated and bullied other people. It was destroyed because of the goodies’ compassion and empathy. Aragorn, Gandalf, the Wood-elves, Frodo, and Sam all could have killed Gollum, but showed mercy instead. It was that mercy that saved the world.

I know. I looked it up.

Frodo’s Journey:

Frodo and friends are still holed up in Rivendell. The scouts are starting to return, and plans are being laid. Will the fellowship go south past Isengard, or will they try to cross the Misty Mountains? We’ll soon find out. As I type and watch a light snow drift down, I am reminded of the following passage from when the fellowship runs into a snowstorm on Caradhras:

“I don’t like this at all,” panted Sam just behind. “Snow’s all right on a fine morning, but I like to be in bed while it’s falling. I wish this lot would go off to Hobbiton! Folk might welcome it there.” Except on the high moors of the Northfarthing a heavy fall was rare in the Shire, and was regarded as a pleasant event and a chance for fun.

Battle Hymn of the Week

The Trump regime’s first sin was the shutdown of USAID. We now learn that this choice “has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases and malnutrition, according to Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health’s Atul Gawande.” (See Letters #13.) The sheer brutal savagery of this MAGA regime is beyond words. When they are gone from power, there will be much good work that is desperately needed.

But the good news is that humanity is capable of doing that good work, and sometimes the spark of an idea starts an avalanche. On October 23, 1983, Boomtown Rats singer Bob Geldof and his partner, television host Paula Yates, watched a BBC documentary on famine in Ethiopia and were deeply affected. They immediately got to work and made use of all of their music industry knowledge, skills, and personal contacts to secure free use of recording and production facilities, while also persuadiong dozens of big music stars to join in the performance of a single song, “Feed the World.” The song had zero expenses and every penny earned was donated to famine relief efforts (see Letters #14). Geldof later commented that he hoped they could raise $100,000 to help. As of today, estimates are that this song, plus the live show and all of the follow-on variations over the years, have raised over $150,000,000.

U2’s Bono sings the most chilling line of the song, “Well tonight thank God it’s them instead of you.” Reportedly he had to be persuaded to do so. It’s not a kind line, but it is the crux of the entire song. It’s one thing to lament the plight of others, but quite another thing to imagine their horror could easily have been your own. That’s what motivates us to care, and to act. MAGA philosophy began this year asserting that empathy was toxic, but it is my belief and prayer that the lived experience from this time will have quite the oppostion effect: an increase in understanding of and caring for others. Thanks to this MAGA regime, many Americans have a much better idea of what can go wrong, and what we must do to avoid that.

Letters From the Front

1. Indiana rejects redistricting.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/11/politics/indiana-senate-republicans-redistricting-trump

2. Lt. Governor Beckwith’s statement.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5646105-indiana-redistricting-micah-beckwith-gop/

3. Missouri voters trying to stand up.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/300000-missouri-voters-sign-petition-to-put-gop-gerrymander-to-statewide-vote/

4. Ruling against National Guard deployment in Los Angeles (two links).

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/judge-preliminary-injunction-california-national-guard

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/judge-blocks-trump-los-angeles-national-guard-deployment/

5. Abrego-Garcia case.

https://marylandmatters.org/2025/12/12/kilmar-abrego-garcia-out-of-ice-custody-leaves-with-head-held-up-high/

6. Venezuelan oil tanker seized, and the attempt at a legal basis for doing so.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/13/venezuela-oil-tanker-seizure-warrant

7. Article about US international actions, ending with remarks on the National Security Strategy, by Heather Cox Richardson.

8. Hostile takeover attempt of Warner Bros. and CNN.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonifitzgerald/2025/12/12/is-netflix-buying-warner-bros-where-the-deal-stands-after-paramounts-hostile-bid/

9. More Epstein photos released.

Meidas+

Smoking Gun Epstein Photos Released + More Updates - 12/12/25

By Ben Meiselas…

Listen now

4 months ago · 3862 likes · 392 comments · Ben Meiselas and MeidasTouch Network

10. More recent polling data.

https://apnorc.org/projects/trumps-approval-rating-slips-on-the-economy-and-immigration/?doing_wp_cron=1765465937.1520369052886962890625

11. Timothy Snyder.

Thinking about...

Land War or Self-Terrorism?

In certain ways, the autumn of 2025 in the United States has recalled the autumn of 1938 in Nazi Germany…

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4 months ago · 2177 likes · 121 comments · Timothy Snyder

12. Chris Armitage:

The Existentialist Republic

BOMBSHELL: Trump Is FINISHED (This Time We Really Mean It)

I keep seeing the same phrase. “The beginning of the end.” The Daily Beast used it last week. Then Newsweek. Then NPR. Then a Substack I follow. All of them about Trump. All of them confident that this time, finally, the coalition is cracking…

Read more

4 months ago · 958 likes · 225 comments · Christopher Armitage

13. Global consequences of the de-funding of USAID.

https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/usaid-shutdown-has-led-to-hundreds-of-thousands-of-deaths/

14. About “Feed the World” on Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_They_Know_It%27s_Christmas%3F

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2 Minute Offense

1. TN-07. The Democratic candidate, Aftyn Behn, lost by 9 points in a district President Trump won by 22 points last year. A win is a win, but this win has sent Republicans scurrying. See the Musing below for more.

2. MAGA pushes USA towards Russian world view. New annual strategic orientation document from the federal government says Russia is our pal, Europe should fend for themselves and stop suppressing far-right political parties, and that everyone in the Americas should bow before us (see Letters #1). Apparently that last 80 years of comparative global peace doesn’t appeal to them.

3. The Great Forgetting. Lina Khan, coined this phrase years ago, used its principles while head of the Federal Trade Commission under President Biden, and is continuing to use it today as part of her work for NY mayor-elect Mamdani. Her point is that many of the tools that could be used to re-orient governmental behavior in favor of every day people especially in the area of anti-trust and anti-monopoly (instead of the focus of the last 40 years, which has merely been on lowering consumer prices) are actual laws already on the books, but they are laws that, over time, have been ignored or viewed as unenforcable. Khan describes this briefly (<1 minute) in the clip below.

https://x.com/TraceTheLaw/status/1990085965163991514

4. Texas gerrymander update. Supreme Court stays lower court ruling which had rejected the redrawn TX maps, effectively allowing them to be used in 2026 (see Letters #2). This is a despicable ruling, but also per Democracy Docket, it may make California’s countermoves less likely to be blocked, too.

5. Habba illegally appointed. Another Trump-appointed federal prosecutor has been barred. (See Letters #3.)

6. Young adult views on federal government. As reported by Simon Rosenberg, the latest YouGov polling shows a 44 point decline (from +5 favorable last January to -39 negative now) in approval of the President among 18-29 year olds.

Related: ICE used a song by Sabrina Carpenter as part of one of their despicable videos showing their brutality and inhumanity. Carpenter fired back, as reported by Meidas Touch Network below.

Pithy Wargaming Tip: A Peek Into Wargaming & History

Peek into wargaming

All this past week, the comic ‘Dustin’ has been highlighting a dad and his son (the Dustin in question) playing a war game. Clearly the artist is a wargamer, as he’s been hitting upon amusing tropes all week. The panel from Wednesday, below, summed up the horror most people feel when approaching a wargame rules book (leftmost and center panel) — and 16 pages is short in my wargaming world; 100+ pages is not unusual — and the vicarious reason we play (right panel). What is good in life, Conan?

Peek into history

Pyrrhus of Epirus (a former kingdom on the western coast of Greece) is remembered over 2,000 years later for his wars against Rome (see Letters #4). Pyrrhus was no slouch. Hannibal (c. 200 B.C.) thought Pyrrhus was almost the best general the world had ever seen, second only to Alexander the Great; other ancients like Cicero also spoke glowingly of Pyrrhus. Nevertheless, Pyrrhus is remembered today not for his many successes, but for the following quote: “If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined.” That’s because the cost of victory against Rome in was higher than Epirus could afford, making the victory worthless. See the Musing below for a modern day example of a “Pyrrhic victory.”

Reconnaissance Mission

Robert Reich offered a list of 10 things the Democrats must do to make America affordable again. Not sure I agree across the board, and with some points the devil is very much in the details. Nevertheless it is good to see a detailed approach that can foster debate.

1. Eliminate Trump’s tariffs.

2. Bust up monopolies.

3. Fight for stronger unions.

4. Raise the national minimum wage to $20 an hour.

5. Make housing more affordable.

6. Cut health care costs by making Medicare available to everyone.

7. Get working families help with child care and elder care.

8. Give working families paid family leave.

9. Provide a universal basic income if adequate-paying jobs are unavailable.

10. Raise taxes on the wealthiest to pay for this.

However useful Reich’s list may or may not be, it’s not enough. Affordability is a pressing issue, maybe even the most vital issue that cuts across other political divides today, but to reorient Americans, we must create leaders who can articulate a new, shared vision and give us the inspiration to pursue it.

A few weeks ago, after the November elections, Andy Beshear (Governor, D-KY) hit the nail on the head with an article: “Tackling affordability is not enough. To truly lead again, Democrats must be the party of aspiration.” (See Letters #6.) Beshear sums it up:

We have to do the hard work of convincing American families that Democrats are the party committed to addressing their day-to-day concerns, that we believe in a brighter future for their children and that we will always give them straight talk. That we will do, in other words, what Donald Trump and the Republicans have shown they will not.

Even today, 45 years later, the shadow of President Ronald Reagan is a long and powerful one, and with good reason: Reagan was able not only to articulate the political desires of a group of Americans, but to do so in a way that inspired others to join that group, and also to inspire many people to work hard to make their goals a reality. This is what a great communicator can do, and we are living in the wake of what Reagan created. President Franklin D. Roosevelt did the same, shaping the national political narrative from the 1930s until the rise of Reagan.

Today something is clearly needed. To make it a reality, we need to exert pressure to create someone of equally powerful stature to establish that new direction. I would like to harken back to the principles of both Lincoln and FDR, and to do so in a way suited to the 21st century’s needs, which are quite different.

Taking Action

Below is a 12 minute video about a pair of brothers in the greater Chicago area who have been tracking and reporting on ICE. This is eye-opening stuff, not for the evil ICE behavior — we’ve seen that all too often — but because of the courageous response of these young men.

There has been much hang-wringing commentary in 2025 wondering, “Where are the young people? Why aren’t they opposing this administration like young people opposed the war in Vietnam?” Perhaps it has taken, and may yet take, a bit longer for young adults to find their footing in a world that is much less safe and affordable for them than the 1960s were, but I am convinced this generation is gathering its muscle and will become the backbone of force that compels this MAGA administraion to retreat into the shadows of history.

Why? Partly because the young are fearless in ways that older people simply are not. But even moreso, because younger folk have grown up with social media and other technologies that connect us all instantly to one another. They will leverage that power in ways that cannot be suppressed, and that those who did not grow up with that technology can’t even imagine.

The Sabrina Carpenter exchange, above, is just one example of the reach younger adults have with one another. Her response was short and to the point. And it was seen and liked by 138 million people in a few days ~ at least some of whom may not have been giving much thought to politics. That kind of instantaneous reach of communication is new and powerful. We’ve seen the federal government try to take advantage of it to promote themselves, but we’re also now regularly, and effectively, seeing communication technology used to oppose their agenda.

Also as noted above, that 44 point decline in approval among the 18-29 age group is a staggering loss to MAGA’s acceptability among young adults. In the long run, I believe we will see large numbers of young people acting in concert, like the brothers highlighted in the video below, and there is simply no way to stop that.

Musing

Jess Piper has a good summary (below, <1 minute) of last week’s election result in Tennessee, including this observation: “The district didn’t flip, it buckled. The twenty-two point Trump cushion collapsing into single digits is the political equivalent of a stress fracture on a main beam. It means the pressure is finally getting through.”

G. Elliot Morris (see Letters #7) goes deep into the numbers, noting that turnout was very high, making the results about as trusty as a mid-term result, though less so than a presidential voting cycle. Morris’ estimate is that this result suggests a 6 to 8 point overall swing for Democrats which could in turn suggest something like a 235-200 Democratic margin of control in House elections next fall. If we suppose politicals-as-normal for a moment, the Morris projections appear to carry some weight insofar as:

• The Republicans poured millions of dollars to hold into holding this district;

• House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned in person to support his candidate;

• President Trump zoom-campaigned to support as well; and

• The candidate seemed a pretty normal person who wasn’t hard to like (apart from his spouting Trump- and MAGA-isms), which often isn’t the case with MAGA candidates.

In other words, the circumstances were generally good for the Republicans and they still performed 13 points worse than last year. This is a modern day Pyrrhic victory.

Cold water splash: the above is all sophistry at the moment. Don’t forget that elected fascists have never willingly given up power ever, anywhere, and will do anything to stop free and fair elections. To be clear — painfully clear — it’s going to get worse over the next several months as MAGA flails about grasping at power and harming whoever they can. We should all continue doing all that we have been doing, and more if possible. Heather Cox Richardson sums it up: we’re in the end game of a 50 year movement aimed at destroying democracy in America.

Frodo’s Journey:

More feasting in Rivendell. Below is a clip (3.5 minutes) from the extended movie version of “The Hobbit.” I’m not a fan of the ‘Hobbit’ movies and have never seen the extended versions, but was glad to find this. A dwarf gets to sing Frodo’s “There is an inn, a merry old inn” song — borrowed from the Lord of the Rings when the four Hobbits are at the Prancing Pony in Bree — and a food fight in Rivendell ensues.

Featured Scifi Episode Animated Movie / Battle Hymn of the Week

The animated movie “Prince of Egypt” recounts the Biblical story of Moses and the deliverance of the Jewish people out of slavery in Egypt. The song “When You Believe” (below) shows the people walking away to freedom, arriving finally at the Red Sea.

This song embodies the spirit of the season for all of us — belief in a greater good and freedom for all people — by emphasizing the Jewish people’s indomitable spirit, and their never giving in to despair even in the face of apparent hopelessness. As Kevin Garnett said some years ago in happier circumstances (for Celtics’ fans), “Anything’s possible!” — it is, when we believe and act on that belief.

Many nights we prayed
With no proof, anyone could hear
In our hearts a hopeful song
We barely understood
Now, we are not afraid
Although we know there’s much to fear
We were moving mountains
Long before we knew we could, whoa, yes

There can be miracles when you believe
Though hope is frail, it’s hard to kill
Who knows what miracles you can achieve?
When you believe, somehow you will
You will when you believe

Letters From the Front

1. Reuters on the US’ strategic reorientation.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-strategy-document-revives-monroe-doctrine-slams-europe-2025-12-05/

2. Democracy Docket reports on Texas ruling.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/scotus-allows-texas-to-use-racially-gerrymandered-map-in-2026-midterm-elections/

3. Habba illegally appointed:

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance

The Third Circuit Says "No" To Alina Habba as Interim U.S. Attorney for New Jersey

Monday morning, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Trump’s appointee to be U.S. Attorney in the District of New Jersey, Alina Habba, had been improperly appointed. In a 32-page opinion, the 3-0 majority wrote, “These cases require us to consider … whether Habba is lawfully acting as U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey … or has been l…

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4 months ago · 1496 likes · 108 comments · Joyce Vance

4. Pyrrhus of Epirus:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhus_of_Epirus

5. Reich and what Democrats must pledge to America.

Robert Reich

What Democrats Must Pledge to America

Friends…

Read more

4 months ago · 2714 likes · 424 comments · Robert Reich

6. Andy Beshear, Washington Post, 11/24/25.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/11/24/andy-beshear-democrats-politics-rural-voters/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzY0MDQ2ODAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzY1NDI5MTk5LCJpYXQiOjE3NjQwNDY4MDAsImp0aSI6IjU3MzhiM2NkLThhYTMtNDlhMi1hYWM2LWVlOGJhZGMyNzg0NSIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9vcGluaW9ucy8yMDI1LzExLzI0L2FuZHktYmVzaGVhci1kZW1vY3JhdHMtcG9saXRpY3MtcnVyYWwtdm90ZXJzLyJ9.XRZZQi21GxfThwlL7z_bdp2jF7DkjIMfIYP8yiG9MWg&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack

7. G. Elliot Morris:

Strength In Numbers

What the special election in Tennessee says about the 2026 midterms

Voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District voted on Tuesday, Dec. 2, to fill a vacancy left by Republican representative Mark Green, who resigned from Congress in July 2025. The election for this rural seat went for Republican candidate Matt Van Epps over Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn, with Van Epps having a 9-point margin in the vote as of…

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4 months ago · 265 likes · 17 comments · G. Elliott Morris

Bonus content for those reading this far!

Greg Lake, “I Believe in Father Christmas.”

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